October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

11.7c to the 4th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP probably around 50 mm already. It was 24 mm to the 3rd and the 24h rainfall map on meteociel for the 4th (to 06z 5th) looks like 20-25 mm. Since quite a bit of that probably fell 00z-06z overnight I'm not sure if it all gets onto the tracker for the 4th, nor am I all that sure the tracker runs calendar day or maybe also 06z-06z. 

In any case there won't be a lot more rain for the rest of this week in the grid, western Ireland looks wet later in the week. 

CET likely to start a fairly steady rise later this week too. 

 

[damianslaw]

Oh well back to Septembers sleep fest into mid month..  cloud and temps 13-14 degrees do not inspire me one bit. Look forward to a blast if polar air and some frost. 

[Summer Sun]

11.8c to the 5th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.3C -3.2C below average. Rainfall 27.4mm 33.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

11.9c to the 6th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.2C -2.1C below normal. Rainfall 27.4mm 33.1% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday's provisional CET of 15.9 has bumped up the running mean to 12.5. Will see if the usual daily post happens, if not, can show the details in a later post. The EWP has reached 53 mm (6th) and might have added 1 mm yesterday. The GFS ten-day prediction is basically zero for about a week then very small amounts to add perhaps 2-5 mm by 18th. After that probably anyone's guess if the Atlantic returns at that point, lots of time to add to the projected values near 60 mm. 

[Roger J Smith]

12.5c to the 7th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average (and the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

____________________________

This is one of those rare times where the 1961-90 average is higher than 1981-2010, although I noticed in the report today that the 12.5 was 12.48 and that was 0.24 above the 1961-90 average so actually the 0.2 above is a rounding phenomenon, using one decimal values that would be 0.3 above (still at 12.2 that is 0.1 higher than the 12.1 average for 1981-2010 or 1991-2020). 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.9C  -1.3C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 8th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.2C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 9th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 10th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.3C -0.7C below average. Rainfall 27.4mm 33.1% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP stays at 53 mm for almost a week, then begins a slow increase that looks to be around 5-10 mm by the 21st and perhaps another 10 to 15 mm by the 27th. That would add up to 68-78 mm. 

The CET is probably going to do roughly the same, staying fairly flat now for about a week, then showing a slow increase in a very mild southwest flow. Towards the end of the GFS run more variations are shown, whether real or not remains to be seen, so that by near the end of the month we could be anywhere from about the high 11s to low 13s. 

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 11th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 12th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.2C -0.5C below average. Rainfall 31mm 37.4% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 13th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12.9c to the 13th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

Another warm month looks very likely now- no prolonged cooler weather is in the offing at all

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 12.3C  -0.3C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Derecho]

Next week is looking notably warm for the time of year. Up to the 21st, I'm predicting a CET of 13.6C. The question now is how long the very mild weather can go on for. If the mild south-westerlies continue until the end of the month then the October record from 2001 might be achieveable. A bit of a stretch though.

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Next week is looking notably warm for the time of year. Up to the 21st, I'm predicting a CET of 13.6C. The question now is how long the very mild weather can go on for. If the mild south-westerlies continue until the end of the month then the October record from 2001 might be achieveable. A bit of a stretch though.

A bit of a stretch indeed if the 12z EC comes off, it all depends on whether low pressure next week clears east or remains stuck over us.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A bit of a stretch indeed if the 12z EC comes off, it all depends on whether low pressure next week clears east or remains stuck over us.

Sept. 2020 and Oct. 2018 are recent examples of a month that was looking to be notably warm but then a colder finish eradicated those chances. While I'm not proposing the same thing will happen for sure in Oct. 2021, it is reason to not get attached to the idea that a month with be overly warm OR cold, the reverse happened in Feb. 2021. I hope it does turn colder though. On the flipside, if it doesn't and we stay mild, then this will turn into a very mild autumn indeed, with shades of 2005 & 2006.

 

Come on, cold!