October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Sept. 2020 and Oct. 2018 are recent examples of a month that was looking to be notably warm but then a colder finish eradicated those chances. While I'm not proposing the same thing will happen for sure in Oct. 2021, it is reason to not get attached to the idea that a month with be overly warm OR cold, the reverse happened in Feb. 2021. I hope it does turn colder though. On the flipside, if it doesn't and we stay mild, then this will turn into a very mild autumn indeed, with shades of 2005 & 2006.

 

Come on, cold!

Yup all depends on whether that low pressure moves eastwards next week. Either we have a sharp northerly or a west based -NAO locking us into a milder pattern. Could go either way.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.2C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 33.3mm 40.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 14th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 15th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.9C -0.4C below average, Rainfall 33.5mm 40.5% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 16th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP looks to be on its way to a finish around 100 mm, now at 58 mm (est 2 mm 16th), adding 25-30 mm by 27th and another 10-15 mm at least in final four days. 

CET will probably spike upwards to mid-week, then back down to current levels, and possibly up a bit late in the month with a nearly relentless southwest to west flow of mild air. Could finish anywhere in the 12s depending on the strength of that warming and later adjustments. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.8C -0.4C below average. Rainfall 33.6mm 40.6% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 17th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.8C -0.2C below average, Rainfall 33.9mm 40.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 18th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Derecho]

Based on this mornings EC I think we will be heading for a mild end to the month but not enough for things to be record breaking.

I can see a final CET of around 12.5C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

12.8c to the 19th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Sforzando]

5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Based on this mornings EC I think we will be heading for a mild end to the month but not enough for things to be record breaking.

I can see a final CET of around 12.5C after corrections.

Any higher than 12.5C would put it in the all time top ten. Seven out of the top ten Octobers have occurred since 1995 which is a remarkable stat especially when you consider that the equivalent number for May is zero.

That is after the 7th warmest September so potentially two top ten months in a row.

Warmest autumn on record was 2006 with 12.63C, so with Sept at 15.9 and Oct at 12.5, November would have to be 9.5 or higher to beat that record. That is top 3 or 4 territory but you never know.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Sforzando

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 12C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 39.7mm 47.9% of the monthly average

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, Sforzando said:

Any higher than 12.5C would put it in the all time top ten. Seven out of the top ten Octobers have occurred since 1995 which is a remarkable stat especially when you consider that the equivalent number for May is zero.

That is after the 7th warmest September so potentially two top ten months in a row.

Warmest autumn on record was 2006 with 12.63C, so with Sept at 15.9 and Oct at 12.5, November would have to be 9.5 or higher to beat that record. That is top 3 or 4 territory but you never know.

I don’t personally think right now that we’ll beat autumn 2006 but the sheer fact it’s possible seems insane. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 hours ago, Sforzando said:

Any higher than 12.5C would put it in the all time top ten. Seven out of the top ten Octobers have occurred since 1995 which is a remarkable stat especially when you consider that the equivalent number for May is zero.

That is after the 7th warmest September so potentially two top ten months in a row.

Warmest autumn on record was 2006 with 12.63C, so with Sept at 15.9 and Oct at 12.5, November would have to be 9.5 or higher to beat that record. That is top 3 or 4 territory but you never know.

2013 and 2014 are tied with October 1968 as the tenth warmest, so in actual fact it is either six or seven of the ten warmest Octobers that have occurred since 1995, depending on how you look at it.  Since 1994 we have recorded three or four of the top 10 Novembers, as 2009 is tied with 1939 in tenth place.  Since 1999 we have recorded four of the top ten Septembers, so all the autumn months have seen an increase in notably high CETs in recent times.

For this month we are currently at 12.82 unadjusted to the 19th, with today seeing likely only a small rise, and the next few days look a bit cooler so could knock around 0.5 off, but many days next week are looking above average, so there is a good chance now of another 12+ CET October, possibly as high as 12.5.

Edited October 20, 2021 by North-Easterly Blast

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by North-Easterly Blast

[Roger J Smith]

I agree that it would be difficult for the monthly average to end up much higher than 12.5 given the usual downward corrections and the fact that even near-record warmth in the last week is only slightly above where we already are. The single highest daily CET mean in the last week of October was 16.9 on 31st of 2014 and before that happened, 16.7 on 27th of 1888. Most of the records are in the 14 to 15 range. The model output was looking like it could be close to 14 at times so if this slight cold spell takes only a tenth or so off the running mean it could creep up to near 13 by end of the month then probably get pushed back down. 

Just for interest I had a look at where all other top twenty Octobers (with daily data) stood on the 21st and second warmest 2005 (13.1) gained 0.3 from 12.8 on 21st. Tied 10th 2014 added 0.1 to finish 12.5 although with that record on the 31st it had actually lost 0.1 to the 30th and picked up 0.2 from that very high reading. All the others lost some ground from 21st to 31st (one had no daily data). The next warmest outside the top twenty to gain ground in the late stages was t24th 1996 which added 0.1 to end up at 11.7. Another of these tied 11.7 (1989) was level and managed to average 11.7 for its running mean every day from 21st to 31st. So while a lot of the top twenty had considerable warmth near the end (a few like 1921 dropped down from values as high as 14) it was seldom warm enough to do more than keep the average about where it had been, quite a few of the years examined had just a slight drop, like 2006 which fell from 13.6 to 13.0. (note these ranks do not include 2021 so the t-24 group will probably shift to t-25, and t-10 2014 may also change if this year is 12.6 or higher). 

On the topic of warmest autumn, 2006 really rode two very warm months and another quite warm one (Nov was 8.1 and t-25 warmest) but this year could beat it with another top ten finish in November, looking at the other seasonal winners and their monthly ranks, one (summer 1976) outdid 2006 in terms of rank of the weakest contributor (t-25), for winter it was 1868-69 with 2nd warmest Feb, t-12 Dec and t-34 warmest Jan ... for spring 2017 the ranks were 3rd (Mar), t-17th (May) and merely t-75th (Apr); 2011 which finished second warmest spring has a better third place rank with 1st (Apr), t-66 Mar and t-70 May; and then 1976 did the business with 5th warmest June, tied fifth warmest July and tied 12th warmest August. The second warmest summer of 1826 had a "worst" rank of t-28th. 

So there is one first that this season can still attain and that would be three top ten months, which requires that Oct finish no lower than 12.5 and Nov 8.7 ... September was ranked 7th. 

Edited October 20, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 20th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.1C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall 42.1mm 50.8% of the monthly average.

Certainly looking like another very mild month coming up and another one with below average rainfall.

Doesn't look like a anywhere near a top tenner though for us.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.8C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 42.3mm 51.1% of the monthly average.

Quite a drop considering it's late in the month. Looking at the local forecast any drops are further drop are likely to cancelled out by the warmer weather later next week.

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 21st

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

EWP will finish around 120 mm according to GFS guidance, current value is about 96 mm, grid average looks around 25 mm for the rest of the month. Five forecasts are quite close to this value so I won't post any provisional scoring, as any small variations from 120 would make a considerable difference to some scoring, but there are only five other forecasts in the zone from 129 mm to highest prediction of 175 mm, so most of the field would now have a fairly good idea of where they might finish, and in the annual scoring our top two of Feb91blizzard and snowray were always going to remain in the same relative positions with their very similar forecasts that now cannot finish more than two ranks apart (and more likely just one). Reef looks likely to make a move up in the top ten. The forecasts closest to 120 mm listed from 129 to 110 are these, and I added in coldest winter who may have a chance given the fact that most of the predicted rainfall is late into the nine days left and could exceed the estimate (some western higher elevations are shown much higher than the grid average so if that tendency was underestimated, outcome could be 130 mm): 

 

(134.9_coldest winter) 129_SteveB ... 121.4_polar gael ... 121_JamieM ... 120_February1978

118_MrMaunder ... 117_noname_weather ... 115_Reef ... 113_bobd29 ...

112_weather26, Emmett Garland ... 110_Stationary Front, syed2878, J10, summer8906^

^ one day late 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.7C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 42.5mm 51.3% of the monthly average.