October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 22nd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 23rd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.6C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 43.5mm 52.5% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 24th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

Worth noting there has never been a 12.1 or 12.2 finish for October, either would be 16th warmest. Oddly enough the only other missing value among warm Octobers is 13.2, below the extreme of 13.3 (2001). Now this is hardly the equivalent of the missing 5.9 in December but it would fill one of the second most conspicuous warm-side gap in the numbers, while still leaving another for later service. (5.9 for Dec if finally achieved this year would be 56th warmest and the next missing value higher ranked than these October numbers would be 16.3 for June (would be 15th warmest next time plus any warmer) and 15.5 for Sep (would be 11th warmest next time plus any warmer).

There are more 20 to 40 ranked low values missing because of the steady warming of climate leaving these gaps harder to fill. For example, never recorded 1.3 would be 31st coldest February but the chances of hitting 1.3 in February nowadays must be lower than the chances of hitting 16.3 in June or 15.5 in September.  

(note added Nov 2nd _ Oct 2021 did finish on 12.1, but 12.2 remains missing and would be 16th warmest (plus any additional warmer values before it) when or if it does finally occur.)

Edited November 2, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.5C +0.2C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity ...

12.4c to the 25th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

(1.2c above the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 26th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.5C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP estimates keep on creeping up -- at the moment the total is around 110 mm, depending on what they add to 106 mm (26th) from yesterday which was largely dry but had local downpours in Cumbria and North Wales. The totals estimated for the next four days including today appear to be at least 30 mm on average, the grid has some very heavy amounts in the west and north and lesser amounts central to east. The total could easily be near 140 mm at this rate. The CET will probably have slight upward pressure including the not yet revealed upswing for yesterday's very mild readings but I suspect the downward adjustment will be larger so that eventually maybe 12.3 the most likely end point. 

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 27th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[Weather26]

That's a mild month all but certain now.

[Froze were the Days]

Only risen by 0.2c since Sunday?...temps the last couple of days here have been 4c above the average day and night!

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

12.4c to the 27th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

Very odd there hasn't been a rise after yesterday. We haven't dropped below 14C here at all in the last 48 hours.

[Scorcher]

19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Only risen by 0.2c since Sunday?...temps the last couple of days here have been 4c above the average day and night!

I don't have the figures but yesterday must have been over 16C CET wise? It does seem strange there was no rise.

[Roger J Smith]

I think it went from 12.36 to 12.43 so it went up but the rounding kept it at the same value. The provisional mean is listed as 14.3 C. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 43.6mm 57.7% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

5 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I don't have the figures but yesterday must have been over 16C CET wise? It does seem strange there was no rise.

Also it's also end of the month so much harder to make much of a difference.

[Roger J Smith]

I wonder when the UK met office will update from using the 1961-90 normals as their baseline. They say this is recommended by the WMO but no other country uses a normal that stale. The USA already updated from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 in their monthly climate summaries. Canada and Ireland use 1981-2010 and have not yet updated to 1991-2020. 

Would the UK Metoffice some day update to 1971-2000 for their CET and EWP reports? That would still be rather long in the tooth.

And what will be the visible change (if any) brought about when this disclaimer on the CET site comes to pass? 

 

Please note:

This version of CET will be superseded by CETv2 later in 2021. This will be a fully traceable system, with improved homogenisation and data adjustments to ensure a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day. Further details to follow in due course.

[Scorcher]

10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I think it went from 12.36 to 12.43 so it went up but the rounding kept it at the same value. The provisional mean is listed as 14.3 C. 

It must have been cooler in the south as it only very briefly dropped below 15C here yesterday morning- and then didn't drop below 15C again until after midnight.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 28th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 11.6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 55.2mm 66.7% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 11.6C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 60.4 72.9% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

On 28/10/2021 at 21:01, Roger J Smith said:

I wonder when the UK met office will update from using the 1961-90 normals as their baseline. They say this is recommended by the WMO but no other country uses a normal that stale. The USA already updated from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 in their monthly climate summaries. Canada and Ireland use 1981-2010 and have not yet updated to 1991-2020. 

Would the UK Metoffice some day update to 1971-2000 for their CET and EWP reports? That would still be rather long in the tooth.

And what will be the visible change (if any) brought about when this disclaimer on the CET site comes to pass? 

 

Please note:

This version of CET will be superseded by CETv2 later in 2021. This will be a fully traceable system, with improved homogenisation and data adjustments to ensure a more consistent data-set through history and up to the present day. Further details to follow in due course.

I guess they haven't as it shows global warming more clearly. However I think the TV forecasts do use the later data as when they quoting average temps for the time of year it seems to match later higher figures.

Or perhaps they haven't not a phd student available to update the web page.

Edited October 30, 2021 by The PIT