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October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


Roger J Smith

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP estimate 150 mm to 31st (135 to 30th on tracker, 15 mm estimate for the heavy central/northeast rainfalls and lesser falls elsewhere on 31st), tracker to be finally declared 2nd Nov around 0600h.

This suggests an outcome close to 150 mm. Only two forecasts were above that level (WE91 had 160 mm, I rem Atl 252 had 175). The monthly winner will probably be WE91 (160 mm) even if  prolongedSnowLover (145 mm) is closer, as pSL has a one day late points deduction. This may be the first time in almost four years that our top score will not be 10.0 as WE91 could be scoring off the second highest level of 9.80. coldest winter (134.9) was looking like a possible winner until all that rain fell on the 31st but is likely to finish 3rd now. 

(edit 1st Nov _ a higher estimate for EWP now in, some of this info needs slight edit now and all these paragraphs have been edited, with more precise info to come tomorrow).

Have to give coldest winter a shout out -- this member has entered four contests including this one, and has averaged about 9.2 points out of 10 on those, has more points than some people who entered several more or even all the contests! Had they entered all contests and scored at the same rate, they would be 24 points ahead of our current contest leader. But of course we don't know what coldest winter might have predicted in those other seven months (they are in for November, thinking of copying that one whatever it was -- edit -- but I didn't, probably foolishly). 

I will wait until the final numbers are in to list the scoring, but the annual top twenty most likely to be these (none of their scores can change except by .01 or .02 with any different outcome now as none of them predicted any value above 129 mm): 

 1. Feb91Blizzard  (78.29) ___________________11. February1978 (62.16)

 2. snowray (75.83) __________________________12. virtualsphere (59.14)

 3. noname_weather (71.79) _______________ 13. SteveB (57.19)

 4. Bobd29 (69.77) __________________________ 14. seaside60 (57.11)

 5. Reef (67.07)* ____________________________ 15. Kirkcaldy Weather (56.93)

 6. Godber1 (66.51) _________________________ 16. the PIT (56.12)

 7. Don (66.49) ______________________________ 17. Polar Gael (54.23)

 8. Midlands Ice Age (66.22) _________________18. Frigid (53.52)*

 9. davehsug (64.58) ________________________ 19. Ed Stone (53.21)

10. Mr Maunder (63.25) ____________________ 20. DR(S)NO (52.85)

___________________________________________________________

* These two have entered 10/11 contests. Reef had a forecast of "near normal" in a late appearance the missing month (July) and would have had about 3 points after late penalties for that, so with that one added in Reef would be at about a tie for 4th instead of 5th, so that hasn't really made a huge difference to the contest outcome; Frigid only joined in at the new year and missed December, if Frigid (18th) had scored the same as their average score, they would have about the same number of points as 12th place. With a perfect forecast in that missed outing, they would be in 10th place now. 

This list will be replaced by an adjusted scoring summary on the 2nd. (edit _ the tracker outcome was 145 mm but as there was heavy rainfall on the 31st that seems a bit underdone on the tracker, I suspect the posted table value on the 5th may be closer to 150, so rather than editing these tables twice with opposite results, I will wait and see what the final value actually is before doing the final edit. In any case it won't be much different from this as only one or two ranks or scores can possibly change as a result). 

For an outcome of exactly 150 mm the top October scoring would be

 1. Weather Enthusiast91_ 160 mm ____  (9.79) _ scored from 2nd level

 2. prolongedSnowLover __ 145 mm  ____ (9.70)^ _ first scoring level, 0.3 late pen

 3. coldest winter __________134.9 mm __ (9.58)

 4. SteveB __________________129 mm ____  (9.38)

 5. IRememberAtlantic252 175 mm ____ (9.17)

 6. Polar Gael ______________ 121.4 mm __  (8.96)

 7. Jamie M ________________ 121 mm ____  (8.75)

 8. February1978 __________ 120 mm ____ (8.54)

 9. Mr Maunder ____________118 mm ____  (8.33)

10. noname_weather ______ 117 mm ____ (8.12)

11. Reef ____________________ 115 mm ____  (7.92)

12. Bobd29 ________________113 mm ____  (7.72)

13. Weather26 ____________ 112 mm ____  (7.52)

14. Emmett Garland ______ 112 mm ____ (7.40)

15. Stationary Front _______110 mm ____ (7.10)

16. syed2878 ______________110 mm ____ (6.98)

17. J10 _____________________110 mm ____ (6.86)

18. summer8906 __________110 mm ____ (6.44)^

19. Walsall Wood Snow ___ 106 mm ____ (6.29)

20. Kirkcaldy Weather _____105.6 mm __ (6.09)

21. Frigid __________________ 105 mm ____ (5.89)

22. Godber 1 ______________ 105 mm ____ (5.77)

23. Don ____________________ 105 mm ____ (5.65)

24. snowray _______________ 103 mm ____ (5.29)

25. Feb91Blizzard _________ 102 mm ____ (5.09)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
23 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12.5c to the 28th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

 

It's interesting that October hasn't become noticeably warmer when going from 1961-90 to 1981-2010. On the other hand I would expect a month like January to rise markedly in that period, and perhaps by as much as 2C when comparing 1961-90 to 1991-2020 given the extraordinary run of mild Januaries since 1988. Wouldn't surprise me if most of south-east England now has a mean max above 8C for January, compared to just above 6C for some of the older time periods, 1951-80 springs to mind.

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.5c to the 29th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

It's interesting that October hasn't become noticeably warmer when going from 1961-90 to 1981-2010. On the other hand I would expect a month like January to rise markedly in that period, and perhaps by as much as 2C when comparing 1961-90 to 1991-2020 given the extraordinary run of mild Januaries since 1988. Wouldn't surprise me if most of south-east England now has a mean max above 8C for January, compared to just above 6C for some of the older time periods, 1951-80 springs to mind.

October only really started to become really mild/warm on a regular basis since 2005, before then we were churning out average to cool to cold Octobers fairly frequently. Even in the mild, snowless period of 1997-2004 only 2001 was warm. Before 1997 we had to very warm ones in 1995 & 1996 but 1991-1994 were all on the cool/cold side. And even after 2005 we had a handful of cooler ones like 2008 & 2010. The 1991-2020 average shows this warmer trend better, taking into account years like 2013, 2014, 2017 etc…

Back to present and imo we were due a mild October this year as we had a run of cooler ones since 2018. The start of a new trend or a blip? We’ll see 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall at 67.8mm 81.9% of the monthly average.

If we got just over an half an inch of rainfall today we should make average which going back to the 28th getting close to average seemed remote.

11.5 or 11.6 is the likely end point for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.5c to the 30th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.6c on the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
10 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall at 67.8mm 81.9% of the monthly average.

If we got just over an half an inch of rainfall today we should make average which going back to the 28th getting close to average seemed remote.

11.5 or 11.6 is the likely end point for us.

In fact make that an entire inch of rain and then some! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP may finish near or slightly above 150 mm. It was 135 mm to end of 30th, and the 24h rainfall map (as suggested above) has a swath of 20-40 mm totals over large parts of central and northeast England, could see the addition being at least 15 mm for the grid. On that assumption I have edited the table posted earlier of October scoring, it makes very little difference to anyone who predicted below 120 mm (the earlier assumption was 138 mm), and moves WeatherEnthusiast91 into first for the month after prolongedSnowLover's late penalty. This is the first time in four years (perhaps) that nobody scored the maximum of 10.0 points as pSL might be closest to the pin on this (as shown). A result above 152.5 mm would give WE91 the full points. ... the annual race remains unaffected as none of the beneficiaries of the points adjustment are very far up the table and all October ranks remain within one otherwise. This info will be updated when the tracker reaches its end point tomorrow morning, and then adjusted again when the final value is posted in the EWP tables. I will repost the scoring closer to real time then (5th Nov). 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

October 2021 is the first October in the CET series to record a mean CET of 12.1c. Making it the second month in succession to record a new CET for that particular month after Septembers 15.9c record.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

With 12.1 confirmed as the CET, here is the unofficial top portion of the monthly scoring, with their EWP forecasts and some notes on likely best combined forecasts. In my method of determining rank for CET for that purpose only, a late penalty of one day drops a forecast by one rank, two days late by two ranks. This is equivalent to the points deductions applied within the CET scoring files. This is why ranks 06 and 05 are seemingly in the wrong order here, to anticipate what you'll see in the posted scoring the order will appear that way although inside the scoring machine the late penalties will have the effect of altering those two ranks relatively speaking. The EWP scoring has the late penalties directly included in rank.

Congrats to Ed Stone (General Cluster) on being our lone correct forecast for this new value of 12.1. 

(slight edit to EWP ranks and best combined)

 

Rank __CET _  EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) __ best combined rank (top three)

_01 ___ 12.1 _ 80.0 _ Ed Stone ( 28 ) 

_02 ___ 12.0 _110.0_ Stationary Front ( 1 ) _________ 2nd CET + 15th EWP = 17 (third best combined)

_03 ___ 12.2 _ 70.0 _ snowsummer ( 10 )

_04 ___ 12.0 _ 90.0 _ Leo97t ( 23 ) 

_06 ___ 12.2 _145.0_prolonged SnowLover ( L1-2 ) __ 6th CET + 2nd EWP = 8 (second best combined)

_05 ___ 11.9 _134.9_ coldest winter ( 37 ) ____________ 5th CET + 1st EWP = 6 (best combined)

_07 ___ 11.8 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 6 ) 

_08 ___ 11.8 _ 98.0 _ Summer18 ( 11 ) 

_09 ___ 12.4 _110.0_ syed2878 ( 13 )

_10 ___ 11.8 _118.0_ Mr Maunder ( 38 ) _________ 10th CET + 8th EWP = 18 (fourth best combined)

_11 ___ 12.5 _ 99.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 9 )

_12 ___ 11.7 _115.0_ Reef ( 21 ) 

_13 ___ 11.6 _112.0_ Weather 26 ( 24 ) 

_14 ___ 11.6 _ 60.0 _ summer blizzard ( 29 ) 

_15 ___ 11.6 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( 48 ) 

_16 ___ 11.5 _ 92.0 _ davehsug ( 50 ) 

_17 ___ 12.8 _121.4_ Polar Gael ( 8 ) _________ 17th CET + 5th EWP = 22 (fifth best combined)

_18 ___ 11.4 _ 70.0 _ The PIT ( 17 ) 

_19 ___ 11.3 _113.0_ bobd29 ( 2 ) 

_20 ___ 11.3 _ 65.2 _ Thundery Wintry Showers ( 19 ) 

_21 ___ 11.3 _121.0_ Jamie M ( 35 ) 

_22 ___ 11.3 _ 91.0 _ rwtwm ( 51 ) 

_23 ___ 11.3 _110.0_ J10 ( 52 ) 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

October 2021 is the first time that an October CET mean of 12.1 has been recorded since 1659, and it makes it the 16th warmest October since 1659.  Not a top ten October, but still a significantly above average month.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Report on Consensus and the two Normals in CET contest

For the CET contest, we do not officially score consensus or the two recent normals. (In the EWP contest they are tracked). So here's an update which shows how our consensus (median rather than mean) and the two normals have been doing. 1991-2020 played December as 1990-2019. All I can report here is their rank in each contest, as the other scoring parameters are a bit too complex for me to recreate after the fact. The rank shown is equivalent to the highest scoring forecaster at that temperature level, some others would have ranked lower (higher rank numbers). 

The number in brackets beside the rank is the number of forecasts submitted. 

 

Robotic forecaster ____ DEC rank _ JAN rank _ FEB rank _ MAR rank _ APR rank _ MAY rank_ JUN rank_ JUL rank_AUG rank _SEP rank_OCT rank ___  average rank

Consensus ____________ 27th (97) _ 16th (78) _38th (80) _ 22nd (62) __ 30th (62) _ 31st (64) _ 14th (66) _ 25th (58) _ 26th (56) _ 25th (55) _ 28th (59)__ 25th (67)

1981-2010 normal ____ 27th (97) __51st (78) _ 5th (80) __ 36th (62) __ 37th (62) _ 48th (64) _ 28th (66) _ 30th (58) _ 24th (56) _ 42nd (55) _ 42nd (59) __ 33rd (67) 

1991-2020 normal* ___ 4th (97) ___56th (78) _ 3rd (80)__ 33rd (62) __ 48th (62) _ 51st (64) _ 31st (66) _ 28th (58) _ 26th (56) _ 36th (55) __ 35th (59) __ 32nd (68)

Consensus error _______ --0.4 ______ --0.3 _____ --2.1 ____ --0.3 _______ +1.9 _____ +1.0 _____ --0.2 _____ --0.8 _______ +0.7 _____ --1.4  ____ --1.0 ____ avg abs 0.92

1981-2010 error _______ --0.4 _______ +1.3 _____ --0.7 ____ --0.6 _______ +2.1 _____ +1.6 _____ --1.0 _____ --1.0 _______ +0.6 _____ --1.9 ____ --1.4 ____  avg abs 1.14

1991-2020 error _______ --0.1 _______ +1.6 _____ --0.2 ____ --0.5 _______ +2.6 _____ +1.8 _____ --0.8 _____ --0.9 ________+0.7 _____ --1.7 ____ --1.2 ____ avg abs 1.10

mean bias of consensus is --0.25, mean bias of 1981-2010 is --0.13, mean bias of 1991-2020 is +0.12

ANALYSIS: Our consensus made another small gain on the two normals, as the field generally opted for warmer than normal outcomes so that after eleven months, the difference is showing signs of group forecaster skill overall. This was not the case as recently as the Dec to July averages. The EWP values for the same three "robotic" forecasters are all higher, in fact group consensus in the EWP is ranked near third place and the normals near eighth place. 

--------------------------------------------

Note that the downward adjustment for OCT 2021 was 0.3 C, no mean daily records were set. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A significantly above average October without ever being exceptionally mild. Overall not a very pleasing month here.. most notable feature the exceptionally wet end.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The tracker has finished updating at 145 mm with a surprisingly low 10 mm added for the 31st. This seems too low to me, so I will just ignore this estimate for now and wait to see what the table value is on the 5th of November before updating the scoring any further. Otherwise I may just end up doing two rounds of work on this that cancel each other out. Nothing much at stake for anybody with any outcome between 145 and 155 mm really, the scores already posted would be subject to very small changes. I may add a few more of the lower scoring ranks between now and the 5th as those will probably be settled regardless of the changes at the end. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A significantly above average October without ever being exceptionally mild. Overall not a very pleasing month here.. most notable feature the exceptionally wet end.

I don't think there's ever been a warm month you haven't played down in some way Damian! We did exceed 20C here which doesn't happen every year by any means. Plenty of rain but also plenty of decent, mild/warm days too here.

The 16th warmest since 1659 so certainly very notable.

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Felt a lot milder here than a 12.1 CET...living in the south east you can put nearly another degree on top of that!

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
22 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The tracker has finished updating at 145 mm with a surprisingly low 10 mm added for the 31st. This seems too low to me, so I will just ignore this estimate for now and wait to see what the table value is on the 5th of November before updating the scoring any further. Otherwise I may just end up doing two rounds of work on this that cancel each other out. Nothing much at stake for anybody with any outcome between 145 and 155 mm really, the scores already posted would be subject to very small changes. I may add a few more of the lower scoring ranks between now and the 5th as those will probably be settled regardless of the changes at the end. 

Omg how did I get the rainfall exactly right ?! And the temperature within 0.1c ?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

You will be quite close on the rainfall but the value we use to score the contest is released on the 5th so hold off on the "exact" part until that's known. The tracker is like the preliminary version of the CET, it gets reviewed and an official adjustment of it goes into the tables. That is always given out on the 5th unlike the faster appearing CET. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
22 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Felt a lot milder here than a 12.1 CET...living in the south east you can put nearly another degree on top of that!

Yes, it did feel very warm, albeit not the most pleasant of Octobers!

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Summary (PDF)Oct 2021 Summary.pdf

Excel  October 21 CET.xlsx

Monthly

Only 1 player got it spot on thie month. General Cluster

Stationary Front, snowsummer, Leo97t and prolongedSnowLover were 0.1c out.

In total 15 were within 0.5c.

image.thumb.png.53d0602189cb05aa4c7b8f1d85283ea7.png

Seasonal

General Cluster moves in the lead from 4th,
syed2878 in 2nd (from 1st) and
Bobd29 in 3rd (from 2nd)

image.thumb.png.3d5343a273ab7062eb8559b8305f4156.png

Overall

Still very close overall, with a number of players stil in contention.

with reef back in the lead (from 5th)
Summer18 in 2nd ( from 4th)
Stargazer in 3rd (from 2nd)
nonameweather in 4th (from 1st)
Quicksilver1989 in 5th (from 6th)

image.thumb.png.5a9ce92c28036449d5acd82cda746fd3.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Here for general interest are the November predictions of the top contenders in the CET contest, have only seen top ten so far but would imagine General Cluster (Ed Stone) is just behind 10th place and have included Summer Sun and Polar Gael who by my earlier reckoning would be close to the top ten also. Have adjusted this after seeing the file of ranks 11-20. 

I included the points differential because it would make a difference to the chances of anyone moving up or down, rank after OCT is probably less significant than points differential. To climb in points you need to have a better forecast by about one rank per point, as a rough guide. I could already calculate that there's no way for me to catch Reef for example, our rank differential can only be about seven at most. I would not expect to gain more than ten of the fifty points needed.  To catch Reef you would need to be well separated and much closer with your prediction. I think anyone below the top three would have a very difficult task to move past all three ahead of them unless it's cold enough for noname_weather to march in as advertised in his forecast. His cold selection probably neutralizes the chances of some other coldish forecasts from higher ranks.

Summer 18 has separated their forecast by more than enough to take the lead if they are more than 3-4 ranks closer, so would estimate 7.4 might be the warmest outcome that would work for Summer 18. It would be a very close finish if the outcome was at or just below stargazer's 7.9 as that is separated by only four ranks from Reef in the November contest (I have included the full field after this list to give you the context). Stargazer cannot afford the result to go much below 7.9 either because then summer 18 is lurking with a higher starting point. If you do count ranks between forecasts, you have to include anyone with the same error as yourself and an earlier entry as being between you and Reef, for example, because Reef has the only 8.1 forecast. 

 

Rank __ Forecaster ___ Points behind leader ___ Nov CET prediction

 

_01 ___ Reef ________________ 0.0 ________________ 8.1

_02 ___ summer18 _________ 3.1 ________________ 6.9

_03 ___ stargazer __________ 10.3 _______________ 7.9

_04 ___ noname_weather _ 14.0 ________________5.5

_05 ___ Quicksilver1989 ___ 18.6 _______________ 7.3

_06 ___ Feb91Blizzard _____ 23.2 _______________ 7.0

_07 ___ Leo97t _____________ 25.8 _______________ 7.5

_08 ___ Roger J Smith ______ 34.1 _______________ 7.8

_09 ___ davehsug __________ 39.8 _______________ -- --

_10 ___ dancerwithwings ___40.3 _______________ 7.6

_11 ___ Summer Sun _______ 49.6 _______________ 7.2

_12 ___ Polar Gael __________ 54.2 _______________ 6.4

_13 ___ weather-history ____ 54.8 _______________ 6.9

_14 ___ Gen Cluster (EdS) ___56.3 _______________ 7.0

_15 ___ Mulzy ______________ 61.6 _______________ 7.3

 

(If you're in a rank 16 and up, you might be able to reach top ten with a very high score in NOV).

(An outcome near 6.4 could move Polar Gael up to around 5th-7th by my estimate).

(If your prediction is close to consensus and/or other forecasters, it's harder to move very much).

========================

(all NOV predictions)

9.5 _ 110.0 _ syed2878 ( 27 ) _______________________ 7.2 __ 88.0 _ Freeze ( 6 ) _____________

9.0 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 39 ) __________________________ 7.2 __ 96.0 _ Stationary Front ( 23 ) __

8.9 _ 125.0 _ SteveB ( 47 ) __________________________ 7.2 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( L1-4 ) _____

8.8 __ 88.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 7 ) ____________________ 7.1 __ 89.9 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 43 ) _

8.5 _ 140.0 _ Earthshine ( 5 ) _______________________ 7.1 _ ------ _ Froze were the Days ( 55 )_

8.4 _ 110.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 33 ) _______________7.1 _ 113.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) _____

8.3 __ 78.0 _ coldest winter ( 11 ) __________________ 7.1 _ 100.4 _ 1981-2010 average _

8.2 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 30 ) ____________________ 7.0 _  92.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 49 ) ______ 

8.1 _ 131.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) ____________________________ 7.0 _ 120.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ________________

8.0 _ 132.0 _ virtualsphere ( 4 ) _____________________7.0 _ 100.0 _ Ed Stone ( 20 ) _________

8.0 __ 98.0 _ stevew ( 16 ) __________________________ 6.9 _ 120.0 _ Summer 18 ( 15 ) ______

8.0 __ 75.0 _ Fozfoster ( 40 ) _______________________ 6.9 _ 112.0 _ jonboy ( L1-3 ) _____

8.0 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 56 ) ________________ 6.9 __ 95.0 _ weather-history ( 35 ) _   

7.9 _ 103.0 _ Neil N ( 13 ) ____________________________6.9 _ 116.0 _ snowray ( 54 ) ________

7.9 _ 156.0 _ stewfox ( 28 ) __________________________6.8 __ 98.0 _ seaside60 ( 34 ) _____ 

7.9 _ 126.0 _ stargazer ( 37 ) ________________________ 6.8 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 50 ) ____

7.8 _ 145.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 36 ) ____________________ 6.7 _ 100.0 _ Jeff C ( 3 ) ____________ 

7.8 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 45 ) _______________________ 6.6 _ 150.0 _ John88b ( 10 ) _________ 

7.7 _ 197.0 _ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 26 ) ________ 6.5 __ 70.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 8 ) _

7.7 __ 89.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 51 ) ______________________6.5 _ 125.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 21 ) _________

7.6 __ 96.0 _ Weather26 ( 1 ) _________________________6.4 __ 75.2 _ Polar Gael ( 31 ) _________ 

7.6 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 12 ) __________________ 6.4 __ 88.0 _ Booferking ( 41 ) _________ 

7.6 _ 110.0 _ J 10 ( 59 ) ________________________________6.3 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 42 ) _________

7.5 _ 160.0 _ leo97t ( L1-2 ) ___________________________6.2 __ 90.0 _ daniel* ( 58 ) _____________

7.4 _ 115.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 46 ) ______________ 6.0 __ 85.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 38 ) _

7.4 _ 106.1 _ 1991-2020 average ____________________ 5.9 __ 78.0 _ Radiating Dendrite ( 17 ) _

7.3 __ 82.0 _ Bobd29 ( 2 ) _____________________________ 5.9 __ 90.0 _ summer8906 ( 22 ) _______

7.3 __ 60.0 _ SLEETY ( 9 ) ______________________________5.8 __ 60.0 _ Frigid ( 18 ) _______________ 

7.3 __ 89.6 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 19 ) ________________5.7 __ 81.0 _ rwtwm ( 25 ) ______________ 

7.3 _ 148.0 _ swfc ( 32 ) _______________________________ 5.5 _ 110.0 _ Godber 1 ( 14 ) ___________

7.3 _ 132.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 44 ) _________________ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) ______________

7.3 __ 59.0 _ Mulzy ( 48 ) _____________________________ 5.4 __ 89.0 _ cymro ( 29 ) ______________

7.3 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-1 ) __________________

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: North Leeds
  • Location: North Leeds

Wow starting to feel the pressure  never expected to be this high up at my first ever attempt at this competition but it’s been fun! 

Edited by Summer18
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP has been laid to rest at 145.4 mm. This ranks 29th wettest, with 2020 (164.1 mm) 8th wettest and 2019 (148.8 mm) t-24th wettest. These are not quite the three wettest consecutive Octobers (total of 458.3 mm) by a small margin, the total rainfall of 467.6 mm from 2000-2002 held on although two of its three amounts were lower than both 2019 and 2021 (2000 was 188.0, 2001 135.4 and 2002 144.2) so this recent triad of dismal Octobers had the highest minimum value over any three year interval and it appears that this is true for all months, not just October. Previously August 1877 to 1879 were all at least 136.1 mm. Their total was below this past three months also (439.8 mm) and the two wet threesomes of October appear to outrank most others in all other months too, except for Dec 1914-1916 at 473.6 mm (first), Sep 1797-99 at 467.9 mm (second) and Dec 1929-1931 which edged into fourth behind third place Oct 2000-02 (467.6 mm) at 459.6 mm. 

I will keep an eye on further revisions down the road, the practice of the Hadley EWP is to amend these table values for up to three months although this past cycle made no changes to the previously listed values for Aug or Sep 2021.  

-----------------------------------------------------------

This (still surprising to me) low outcome after a wet 31st (now listed under daily amounts as 10.75 mm) means that the monthly winner on points was coldest winter after late penalty applied to closest forecast of prolongedSnowLover; the only changes to the scoring posted earlier will be that coldest winter exchanges points with now third place WeatherEnthusiast91, all other points and annual totals shown are still valid, and as all three of prolongedSnowLover, coldest winter and WeatherEnthusiast91 are not regular entrants over the full contest, they were not yet shown in the posted lists of annual totals. I will move that post down to the next post I make later today and expand it to include all October participants as well as any that I notice have re-entered for November although missing October.  That might take a while but at least it will be mostly just adding new material and not revising what is already there apart from that one change I mentioned. 

So congrats to (one day late) prolongedSnowLover for being closest on this, and coldest winter maintaining a very good average score of 9.2 out of 10, we'll see how November works out there. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Updated Annual Scoring __ EWP contest

rank_Forecaster ___________Points ___ avg error (rank) __{}__ rank_ Forecaster __________ Pts __ avg err (rank) 

1. Feb91Blizzard  __________ 78.27 ____ 29.12 (3) ______ {}___t31. Walsall Wood Snow __ 47.41 ____ 38.73 (26)

 2. snowray ________________75.81 ____ 27.55 (1) ______ {}___t31. Federico (7) __________ 47.41 ____ 34.67 (---)

 3. noname_weather _______ 72.01____ 31.21 (7) _______{}___ 33. daniel* ______________ 46.13 ____ 41.83 (32)

 4. Bobd29 ________________ 69.77 ____ 32.61 (11)______{}___ 34. Emmett Garland _____ 43.36 ____ 40.32 (31)

 5. Reef^ __________________ 67.08 ____ 28.71 (2) _______{}___ 35. DiagonalRedLine _____ 42.67 ____ 45.29 (39)

 6. Godber1 ________________66.50 ____ 32.45 (10)______{}___ 36. sundog^^ ____________41.36 ____ 45.31 (40)

 7. Don ____________________ 66.48 ____ 30.30 (4) _______{}___ 37. I Remember Atl252 __ 41.13 ____ 46.35 (43)

 8. Midlands Ice Age ________ 66.22 ____ 30.96 (6) ______ {}___ 38. weather-history ______ 39.98 ____ 41.85 (33)

 9. davehsug _______________ 64.58 ____ 31.63 (8) ______ {}___ 39. summer blizzard _____ 38.75 ____ 44.03 (36)

10. Mr Maunder ___________ 63.46 ____ 33.52 (13)______ {}___ 40. Blast from the Past (8) _38.62____ 43.11 (---)

11. February1978 _________ 62.37 ____ 33.21 (12) ______{}___ 41. shillitocettwo _________ 38.01 ____ 44.63 (37)

12. virtualsphere __________ 59.14 ____ 35.59 (15) ______{}___ 42. Born from the Void^^ _37.82 ____ 39.10 (30)

13. SteveB ________________ 57.19 ____ 36.23 (16) ______{}___ 43. Coldest Winter (4) _____ 36.94 ____ 18.23 (---)

14. seaside60 _____________ 57.11 ____ 35.46 (14) ______{}___ 44. WeatherEnthusiast91(6)_36.69 ____ 26.22 (---)

15. Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 56.92 ____ 38.01 (25) ______{}___ 45. Neil N _________________ 36.55 ____ 43.75 (35)

16. the PIT ________________ 56.12 ____ 39.19 (28) ______{}___ 46. Stargazer ______________ 35.44 ____ 45.05 (38)

17. Polar Gael ____________ 54.44 ____ 30.94 (5) _______ {}___ 47. Summer 18 ____________ 31.62 ____ 47.88 (42)

18. Frigid^ ________________53.51 ____ 32.09 (9) _______{}___ 48. Timmytour^^ ___________30.58 ____ 46.94 (41)

19. Ed Stone ______________ 53.21 ____ 37.21 (20) _____ {}___ 50. Earthshine (8) ___________ 28.34 ___ 46.06 (---)

20. DR(S)NO ______________ 52.85 ____ 37.26 (21) ______{}___ 51. rwtwm (6) ______________ 26.89 ____ 32.15 (---)

21. syed2878 _____________ 52.30 ____ 39.44 (29) ______{}___ 53. stewfox (6) (in for Nov) __25.23 ____ 55.28 (---)

22. jonboy^_______________ 51.40 ____ 36.57 (19) _____ {}___ 54. pegg24 (6) _____________ 24.19 ____ 52.07 (---) 

23. J 10 ___________________ 51.33 ____ 36.38 (17) _____ {}___ 55. Thundery Wintry Sh (5) _ 20.84 ____ 37.72 (---) 

24. Relativistic (8) __________51.05 ____ 31.19 (---) ______{}___ 60. cymro (2) (in for Nov) ___ 16.17 ____ 26.75 (---) 

25. Weather26^ ___________ 50.63 ____ 36.46 (18) _____ {}___ 61. prolongedSnowLover (4) _16.05____53.13 (---)

26. Mulzy __________________50.36 ____ 37.59 (22) _____ {}___ 62. SLEETY (3) (in for Nov) ___ 15.72 ____ 44.37 (---)

27. Roger J Smith __________ 49.05 ____ 38.78 (27) _____ {}___ 63. Booferking (3) (+Nov) ____ 15.36 ____ 52.90 (---)

28. Stationary Front _______ 49.00 ____ 37.88 (24) _____ {}___ 71. John88b (1) (+Nov) _______ 10.00 _____ 5.80 (---)

29. Leo97t ________________ 48.68 ____ 43.45 (34) _____ {}___ 72. Fozfoster (1) (+Nov) ________ 9.75 ____ 39.20 (---)

30. Jeff C __________________ 47.90 ____ 37.70 (23) _____ {}___ 76. Jamie M (1) ________________ 8.96 ____ 24.40 (---)

(31 and up are in second column) ... ________________________ 82. summer8906 (2) __________ 8.15 ____ 28.60 (---)

___________________________________________________________ 103. stevew (1) ________________ 1.80 ____ 64.40 (---)  

___________________________________________________________

^ These have entered 10/11 contests. Reef had a forecast of "near normal" in a late appearance the missing month (July) and would have had about 3 points after late penalties for that, so with that one added in Reef would be at about a tie for 4th instead of 5th, so that hasn't really made a huge difference to the contest outcome; Frigid only joined in at the new year and missed December, if Frigid (18th) had scored the same as their average score, they would have about the same number of points as 12th place. With a perfect forecast in that missed outing, they would be in 10th place now. Jonboy (22nd) missed August and their corresponding ranks pro-rated are 16th (avg score) and 12th (10 for missing). 

For all further entries with missed forecasts, the ^^ symbol is used for two missing, which takes us down to 9/11, after which the actual number of forecasts entered is shown instead (a number in brackets after forecaster name). Only those with at least nine of eleven entries is ranked for average error (43 in total). Two of these will drop out as they had 9/11 and did not enter Nov. 

After 48th place only currently active (with Oct or Nov forecasts) are shown, will link in an excel file after NOV to show all results. 

 

For the outcome of 145.4 mm the October scoring is as follows

 1. coldest winter __________134.9 mm ___ 9.79 _ scored from 2nd level 

 2. prolongedSnowLover __ 145 mm  ____ 9.70^ _ first scoring level, 0.3 late pen

 3. Weather Enthusiast91__ 160 mm ____  9.59

 4. SteveB __________________129 mm ____  9.38

 5. Polar Gael ______________ 121.4 mm __  9.17

 6. Jamie M _________________ 121 mm ____ 8.96

 7. February1978 __________ 120 mm ____ 8.75

 8. Mr Maunder _____________118 mm ____ 8.54

 9. noname_weather ______ 117 mm ____ 8.34

10. IRememberAtlantic252 175 mm ___ 8.13

11. Reef ___________________ 115 mm ____ 7.93 

12. Bobd29 ________________113 mm ____ 7.73 __________ 32. Mulzy __________ 93 mm ___ 3.66

13. Weather26 ____________ 112 mm ____ 7.52 __________33. davehsug ______ 92 mm ___ 3.45

14. Emmett Garland ______ 112 mm ____ 7.40 __________ 34. rwtwm _________91 mm ___ 3.24

15. Stationary Front _______110 mm ____ 7.11 __________ 35. DiagonalRedLine _90 mm___ 3.04

16. syed2878 ______________110 mm ____ 6.99 __________ 36. Leo97t _________ 90 mm ___ 2.92

17. J10 _____________________110 mm ____  6.87 __________ 37. Neil N __________ 88 mm ___ 2.61

18. summer8906 __________110 mm ____ 6.45^ ________ 38. seaside60 _______ 86 mm ___ 2.41

19. Walsall Wood Snow ___ 106 mm ____ 6.29 __________ 39. Roger J Smith ___ 85.7 mm _ 2.20

20. Kirkcaldy Weather _____105.6 mm __ 6.08 __________ 40. pegg24 _________ 85 mm ___ 2.00

21. Frigid __________________ 105 mm ____ 5.88 ___________ 41. stevew _________ 81 mm ___ 1.80

22. Godber 1 ______________ 105 mm ____ 5.76 ___________ 42. weather-history_ 80 mm ___1.60

23. Don ____________________ 105 mm ____ 5.64 ___________ 43. Ed Stone ________ 80 mm ___ 1.48

24. snowray _______________ 103 mm ____ 5.27 ___________ 44. virtualsphere ____ 74 mm ___ 1.12 (45th level)

25. Feb91Blizzard _________ 102 mm ____ 5.07 ___________ 45. summer8906 ___ 70 mm ___ 0.96 (46th level)

26. shillitocettwo ___________ 99 mm _____ 4.86 ___________46. the PIT ___________ 70 mm ___ 0.84

27. stargazer ________________99 mm _____ 4.74 __________ 47. Jeff C ^^^__________80 mm ___ 0.46 (1.36-0.90)

28. Midlands Ice Age _______ 99 mm _____ 4.62 ___________48. T Wintry Showers_65.7 mm _ 0.32 (49th level)

29. summer 18 _____________98 mm _____ 4.27 ___________ 49. sundog ___________ 60 mm ___ 0.16 (50th level)

30. DR(S)NO ________________ 95 mm _____ 4.06 ___________ 50. daniel* ^^ _________ 70 mm __ 0.12 (0.72-0.60)

31. Jonboy __________________ 95 mm _____ 3.94 ___________ 51. Summer Blizzard __60 mm__ 0.08

(32-51 table resumes to the right of 12th above)

____________________________________

^ one day late, penalty is 0.30 ... ^^ two days late, ^^^ three days late.

duplicate forecasts drop 0.12 from earlier entries. 

scoring levels are exactly 0.20 apart this month, from those, deductions are applied

for rank, percentage error, sign anomaly error, but towards the bottom of the table

scores drop by 0.16 to prevent negative scoring. 

----------------- ==================== --------------------

TOP TEN for SEASONAL SCORING (after two months of autumn 2021)

1. noname_weather ____ 17.88 _________________ 6. Godber 1 _____ 15.76

2. SteveB ________________ 16.58 _________________ 7. Mr Maunder __ 15.62 

3. syed2878 _____________ 15.93 _________________ 8. Weather26 ___ 15.20

4. Polar Gael _____________ 15.91 _________________ 9. Feb91Blizzard 14.13

5. Kirkcaldy Weather ____ 15.85 _________________10. WxEnth91 ____14.01

(Frigid, bobd29, jonboy, I RemAtl252 and davehsug are 11th-15th). 

 

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