Not The Winter Forecast: A preview of the potential influencers of Winter 2021/2022

[Nick F]

A look at the global drivers that may determine whether winter 2021-22 will be mild, average or cold. The Netweather Winter forecast will be issued later this month.

View the full blog here

[Northwest NI]

Thanks for that.

I may have missed it in reading, but how anomalously warm is the Atlantic basin this year?

[Nick F]

52 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Thanks for that.

I may have missed it in reading, but how anomalously warm is the Atlantic basin this year?

To the west of British Isles 1- 1.5C above average, to SW higher with 1.5-2.5C above

[Northwest NI]

Would it be correct to say then that we would require cold uppers to be a similar amount colder to generate the same affect, as a year with no anomaly. Ie if we usually need -8 uppers for lowland snow then we might require between -9 to -10 with the current SST anomaly?

[booferking]

28 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Would it be correct to say then that we would require cold uppers to be a similar amount colder to generate the same affect, as a year with no anomaly. Ie if we usually need -8 uppers for lowland snow then we might require between -9 to -10 with the current SST anomaly?

Very condutive ingredient for heavy snow showers i like.

-8 uppers will deliver

 

[RabbitEars]

Thanks @Nick F for this excellent blog. I learnt lots! And note that you’ve amended the slight descriptive error about warmer vs colder ENSO.