model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

was a bit surprised myself by the strongly positive response in here …… maybe the thread is maturing ! 

Well fair to say fewer fireworks this year regarding the positioning of the high, and no passionate debate (yet) exploring the differences between a Greenland high and an Atlantic ridge...  

Edited November 18, 2021 by Griff

[Penrith Snow]

23 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

I don't want another 2010. Yeah the Cold was OK, but I hardly saw a flake of Snow in North Staffs / South Cheshire. In fact we had more Snow last year.

Really? Birmingham had heavy snow around the 20th December with 15cms falling at Edgbaston, did you miss that?

Andy

[carinthian]

9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

And back to rain for central Europe. Westward push incredible, in past it used to always correct eastward, now the opposite. Cant wait to see all these pictures of burried Alps on Severe weather Europe site  not!

I am ready !

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 18/11/2021 at 08:05, Man With Beard said:

Fantastic outputs for late November again, but it's probably worth continually reinforcing messages to avoid a meltdown when the nation isn't blanketed in white.

 

First, you really do need perfect synoptics at this time of year to get snow to southern areas (less problematic further north), and even nearly perfect synoptics might just not be cold enough especially south of M4.

 

Second, a northerly itself is no guarantee of widespread snow away from northern and western coasts, or certain favoured set ups. Northerlies need an extra element to bring snow through the spine of the country; fronts or mini-lows can do it, or a low running from Iceland into very cold air.

 

Sorry not trying to be a kill joy but people do get worked up when they don't wake up to a winter wonderland, so good to start with the right expectations.

LP from Iceland? 
 

Rarer than Hens teeth. 

[jules216]

Heat map from EPS for London.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Really? Birmingham had heavy snow around the 20th December with 15cms falling at Edgbaston, did you miss that?

Andy

Remember that, usual slider type low that battered the W Midlands, B'ham area a dumping, good here but less than W Midlands, 6cms or so, Port Vale area tends to miss out, virtually same event as Jan 24th this year

Edited November 18, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

LP from Iceland? 
 

Rarer than Hens teeth. 

 

[TSNWK]

On 18/11/2021 at 08:32, jules216 said:

Heat map from EPS for London.

I don't really understand them.. but it looks very green which I guess is not cold...

[1947s coming]

1 hour ago, Tom Clarke said:

A downgrading this morning as we see a very shortlived colder blast ended quickly next Friday, there is then a reload but that's deep into 'FI' and events over Greenland could change by then.

Yes but that just one run isn’t it ? I am new here but I have noticed all you do is talk negatively and jump straight on any less good runs. Funny to watch actually ️

[jules216]

Also heat map fór my location suggests a lot more greens then compared to 12Z  as the EE high makes a come back on the suite.

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, jon snow said:

There’s more snow on the Gfs 0z op charts than we saw during the whole of last winter..yep, quite a downgrade!  

Well, away from the usual elevated suspects, that’s the least ‘snowy’ gfs since yesterday’s 06z and it’s possibly lower than that. It’s only one run but From a coldie perspective given where we currently are in the modelling it was a bit meh. from a weather geek perspective and the depth of the trough I can see the excitement. 

 

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

Looks nice but big warm sector and pretty wet - troughs headed north to south need to slide against entrenched cold (so further west) or swing around a ridge and come in from the northeast - (even rarer then hens teeth)! 

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

I don't really understand them.. but it looks very green which I guess is not cold...

Yes it’s cold for the time of year but it’s not v cold! 

[Andypvfc]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Remember that, usual slider type low that battered the W Midlands, B'ham area a dumping, good here but less than W Midlands, 6cms or so, Port Vale area tends to miss out, virtually same event as Jan 24th this year

Yeah we did well around Boxing day last year with around 9cm but tend to miss out on the massive events. We tend to get Snow more often but the more marginal events. We even missed out with Storm Emma as it got to Stone whereas we got the outer edge rain. The last time we had a really decent fall was around 1995/96. Remember it mainly as Everton played the Vale that day and very little Snow Merseyside but Stoke had around 15cm.

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I don't really understand them.. but it looks very green which I guess is not cold...

Yes correct, the anomalies May look nicer then the actual  T2m outcome and I am repeating this about 100th time that the high pressure in EE and Western Russia is to blame, @lorenzo did post some interesting maps of LA Ninas post year  2000 in comparison to pre. 2000. It is clearly visible that the atmospheric response is enhanced high pressure there, i know some posters like to swap early season Ural blocking for a 1 week potential cold snap in February,but its more then clear what has been the trend in recent years.

[jules216]

34 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I am ready !

I would be too if I was living at 2000m.asl

[nick sussex]

A slight delay to any cold as the Euros develop a shortwave and that needs run se before the cold can come south .

The GFS is quicker to bring the cold in but then brings that low pressure south too far west before it slowly fills and moves east.

The evolution over Greenland is impacted by the high over the east Pacific , the ridge extension from that helps to take the low across northern Canada into Greenland and then is pushed se into the UK.

The drop down point is too far west but is subject to revision this far out.

Overall it’s a messy picture with a lot going on , the depth of cold doesn’t look great for lower ground and it’s better for any low heading se to remain shallower and not deepen as much .

The UKMO looks best in terms of overall pattern at day 6 and 7 , and looks better placed to bring any low down further east .

 

[bluearmy]

Eps haven’t updated on weatherbell so can’t check the run to run change but the gefs mean is a little more amplified s greeny than the pre ious couple suites in the 8/12 day period 

this is important as will bring colder air further south 

It should also be noted that the ec op is still not amongst the largest cluster in the 8/10 day period. the largest cluster (not by much) is more ridge/trough and therefore will be colder than the op.  To see the control not in the same cluster as the op adds to the uncertainty that continues to pervade around the amplification in general. 

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well, away from the usual elevated suspects, that’s the least ‘snowy’ gfs since yesterday’s 06z and it’s possibly lower than that. It’s only one run but From a coldie perspective given where we currently are in the modelling it was a bit meh. from a weather geek perspective and the depth of the trough I can see the excitement. 

 

Looks nice but big warm sector and pretty wet - troughs headed north to south need to slide against entrenched cold (so further west) or swing around a ridge and come in from the northeast - (even rarer then hens teeth)! 

Yes it’s cold for the time of year but it’s not v cold! 

That’s the point BA. Cool/cold but 2010 it isn’t. Cool/cold is a good start to the season.

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

That’s the point BA. Cool/cold but 2010 it isn’t. Cool/cold is a good start to the season.

Yes. The configuration of the gfs 0z makes it look exceptional with deep purples pouring out of the Arctic but as BA and others suggest it is perhaps flattering to deceive apart from the usual suspects.

Thankfully there  are ens options that are less flashy but would probably deliver more.

[LetItSnow]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS Control, GFS Op and ECM all a little too far west for that prolonged deep cold. The GFS Control has -12c uppers next Thurs but quickly drops the prolonged deep cold look about it, I imagine. The UKMO looks good at T168 but that may do the same by day 10.

The GEFS mean also flattens quickly after day 10!! 

Still turning v cold late next week regardless which is good and we all would have taken these charts at this point a few weeks back , but hoping for an Eastward shift again on the 12z.

 

Even in some of those charts with a slight west based element, heights toward greenland and the purples descending onto the UK gives a fascinating outlook into December if it came off that way. Not an easy way back to mild with that and would maybe open the door to E/NE elements. One thing that I think people may not be seeing is that even if the short term was slightly downgraded (still looks good to me) it could be setting up some fantastic potential into December, which imo is the best because it gets a cold pattern locked into as we get into winter and heightens the chance of a colder/snowier/both December. Talk of 1978 a lot recently with how the autumn was very mild until the end of a November. While true, the December that followed probably would have caused a headache as the cold pattern was setting itself up so it was never overly cold until the very end. Perhaps a shorter term scale thing happening now? Who knows. Feeling optimistic this morning at some of the output. Always remain level headed and never let mild or cold supporters annoy you!!!  

Edited November 18, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Ramp a banned word. Changed to 'supporters'.

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Fantastic outputs for late November again, but it's probably worth continually reinforcing messages to avoid a meltdown when the nation isn't blanketed in white.

 

First, you really do need perfect synoptics at this time of year to get snow to southern areas (less problematic further north), and even nearly perfect synoptics might just not be cold enough especially south of M4.

 

Second, a northerly itself is no guarantee of widespread snow away from northern and western coasts, or certain favoured set ups. Northerlies need an extra element to bring snow through the spine of the country; fronts or mini-lows can do it, or a low running from Iceland into very cold air.

 

Sorry not trying to be a kill joy but people do get worked up when they don't wake up to a winter wonderland, so good to start with the right expectations.

Perfectly articulated, absolutely spot on.  

[Paul]

I've split out the last few pages of the old thread to make a new one, which if you're reading this message, you're in!

The old one is here:

 

[booferking]

First out of the block 6z icon better heights into Greenland. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by booferking

[Methuselah]

Friday night looks ripe for fog. At least in Southern Britain.  

[Ali1977]

I think the initial cold blast is lining up for a more direct hit 

 

This is where it went on the 00z, so we shall See!! 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think the initial cold blast is lining up for a more direct hit 

Think it could be mate !!!! 

Edited November 18, 2021 by ICE COLD