model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think the initial cold blast is lining up for a more direct hit 

 

This is where it went on the 00z, so we shall See!! 

I don't honestly like the look of the high pressure, though it's not exactly the same time frame it's a concern that we need to watch

Last night's model watching could be summed up as "messey" it's not exactly a clean cut, so hopefully models can correct it today.

[ICE COLD]

That’s better ? Or am I talking

[Paul]

On 18/11/2021 at 09:33, Paul said:

I've split out the last few pages of the old thread to make a new one, which if you're reading this message, you're in!

The old one is here:

 

Just following up on this. If you received a pm about the thread being split, it's just an automated thing which everyone who posted in the last few pages of the old thread will have received as I split those posts out to form the start of this new thread. So you can disregard it, and I'll start future threads in a different way to avoid the system sending a ton of needless pm's out!

[Methuselah]

Monday Night- Tuesday Morning look primed for freezing fog. Just about anywhere?

I've got fog on the brain!

[Ali1977]

Less west compared to 00z at T192 so in my mind a better run 

[Battleground Snow]

Quite similar to the ECM on this run... The low heading south drags in milder air, but not at much as the 00z. 

Every run seems to strengthen the high in the Atlantic, probably good for the longer term.

[bluearmy]

Correction west on the second system headed se - corrections west are good on this as the warm sector also corrects west

are we getting to the stage where this becomes a given?  Short blast of Arctic northerly followed by transient ridge and then another system diving se around the high.  A lack of stability on the ridge into Greenland will force this pattern 

[TSNWK]

On 18/11/2021 at 10:23, Battleground Snow said:

Quite similar to the ECM on this run... The low heading south drags in milder air, but not at much as the 00z. 

Every run seems to strengthen the high in the Atlantic, probably good for the longer term.

Will the low north of Scotland clear south east over us or linger . 

 

Drop baby! Drop....

[Methuselah]

Well then, so long as dewpoints remain conducive, we could be in for some pre-frontal wintry stuff!

    

And, if the LP plays ball, a further blast of Arctic air?

[Coxxy657]

definitely a shift west from the 00z to my untrained eye anyway lol

 

[ICE COLD]

@sheikhygetting buried

[Griff]

20 minutes ago, Paul said:

Just following up on this. If you received a pm about the thread being split, it's just an automated thing which everyone who posted in the last few pages of the old thread will have received as I split those posts out to form the start of this new thread. So you can disregard it, and I'll start future threads in a different way to avoid the system sending a ton of needless pm's out!

Thanks! Just thinking to myself, "what have I done this time!" 

[nick sussex]

If shortwaves dropping south remain shallow then this reduces the chances of a warm sector .

If they deepen you want them further east . A deep low dropping south to the west will drive up sw flow into the UK.

Anyhow the GFS day ten throws up that surface high in east Scandinavia .

A topple of the ridge ne might not be a bad thing .

[Cambrian]

The 0z UKMO has better amplification into Greenland at 144h than the 6z GFS operational run for the same time, is slightly slower with the southward advance of the cold air, but would keep us in a truer northerly setup for longer.

UKMO / GFS

 

By 192h, the 06z GFS brings us back to the idea of a steep NW-SE trajectory on the jet stream directly down from Greenland and a deep, diving trough through Scandinavia into Europe that we’ve been talking about for a few weeks.  

 

[Ali1977]

Heights rebuilding over Greenland, much better run

Mmm maybe not Although we stay in the northerly for longer. FI is now nearer 144 than 240, as the models try to figure out how the introduction of deeper cold happens - the actual upper air temp is losing its “coldness” over the last few runs!! 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[IDO]

Hard to be disappointed with the 06z run, showing a ten-day-plus colder spell with wintry mix and snow to the usual suspects:

To d8>  D8-d13> 

Could be better, but not without interest.

Edited November 18, 2021 by IDO

[Methuselah]

I reckon the combination of low heights, warm SSTs and coldish T850s is the recipe for some fun and games over the North Sea?

    

[TSNWK]

I rank 06z as B- 

Nothing outrageous on the cold front.. but provides a lengthy period of interest for the north and height and for rest of us we will be kept on our toes hoping for a surprise.

 

[jules216]

This is what I like to see GFS Control. Pesky Biscay low to go east,not west and the whole system then múch further east

[ICE COLD]

Wow check that out p2 . Only at T156

Edited November 18, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 18/11/2021 at 08:34, That ECM said:

 

Won't happen.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Wow check that out p2 . Only at T156

That surely would be record breaking cold for Nov, poss a -17c upper there

[ICE COLD]

The op still going for it in FI 

[ICE COLD]

P2 is the dream run 

[damianslaw]

Reading this forum is like some sort of film west vs east.. who will win.. anyway all hypothetical really.

The path is towards a cold set up.. first time could probably say this with confidence since May. We've had an exceptionally long period 3 months plus devoid of even barely average temps just persistently above.  Saturday is the transition day, Sunday first day of the colder spell. Note the word 'colder', nothing too below average at first. Frost and fog will be the main features and abundant sunshine. Indeed Sunday looks a cracking crisp late autumn day.

Into next week signal remains for true arctic air to invade the UK and despite the warm SST's given the far fetched flow low uppers look likely increasing the risk of snow to modest heights.. first decent snowfall for the fells at least if precipitation abounds.