Winter 2021-22 forecasts and predictions

[Weather-history]

15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I have always thought that being near to or just after solar minimum the chance of colder winters was better.  I always thought that being near or just after solar maximum the chance of a cold winter was slim.  I always thought that the lower that solar activity was, the better the chance was of the development of northern high latitude blocking.  It makes one question as to the fact that close to solar minimum very recently, winters 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2021-22 have been so mild and produced so little in the way of cold outbreaks for the UK, and it does make one begin to wonder if it is ever again realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop again in the UK.  It raises serious questions about whether a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be regarded as cold or possibly even severe in the modern post 2013 era, and makes one wonder if 2017-18 and 2020-21 are the modern versions of 2009-10, December 2010 and winter 2012-13, and one has to think that winters like 2009-10, spells like December 2010 or winter 2012-13 are now possibly extinct and may well never be seen again.

The very deep solar minimum of the early 1910s, deeper than the 2008-9 one, all the winters were mild. The next cold one was 1916-17 and that was virutally solar maximum. Infact 4 of the 6 great winters (sub CET: 2C) of the 20th century happened in and around solar maxima.

 

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

 even last April was a turn up for the books..

And that extended into May as well. May 2021 ended up 1.0C below the 1961-90 average

[North-Easterly Blast]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The very deep solar minimum of the early 1910s, deeper than the 2008-9 one, all the winters were mild. The next cold one was 1916-17 and that was virutally solar maximum. Infact 4 of the 6 great winters (sub CET: 2C) of the 20th century happened in and around solar maxima.

 

I have just looked at that; all the winters from 1910-11 to 1915-16 all had CETs between 5.0 and 5.5, so these were all above average and definitely not cold, apart from 1914-15 which was possibly a bit nearer average.  1915-16 was a very strange one in that although it had the mildest January CET on record, there was a lengthy spell of cold weather in late Feb into March in that one, and I believe that the previous November 1915 was something like the second coldest on record for the CET.  So all in all 1915-16 was really an example of a winter having an extended notable mild spell in the middle that was bookended by cold spells early and late. 

That said although none of the above six winters were cold overall, I am sure that most of them had little shorter cold outbreaks at times, unlike a number of recent mild winters that were devoid of any cold outbreaks at least from the north or east from proper cold synoptics all the way through.

Which four of the great severe winters since 1900 happened near solar maxima?  If that was the case I would think that just before solar maximum may be slightly more favourable than just after.

[North-Easterly Blast]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Probably need to wait a good 10 years before we can summise such a thing, we had a long period between 1894-95 and 1939-40 with only a couple of notably cold winters 16-17 and 28-29 and that was a time when global temps were much cooler.

Late Feb / early March 2018 though short lived was quite exceptional, and even last April was a turn up for the books..

I think that between 1894-95 and 1939-40 that there were also a small number of other winters that could be regarded as reasonably cold (CET below 3.5), even if not especially so, but as you say anything that could be reasonably described as being a relatively cold winter let alone very cold was pretty rare in the 1895 - 1940 era.  In that period I would say that winters 1899-1900, 1901-02, 1906-07 were all fairly cold, as was 1935-36 later on in that period.  I think that 1933-34 was relatively cold but different, as I believe that much of the cold in that one was from a mid-latitude block over the UK giving surface cold, rather than deep cold Arctic air / proper cold synoptics.