Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Blessed Weather]

Relaunch of ‘Meto Uk Further Outlook’ thread
Time for a new thread to continue posting and discussing the Met Office 5-day and long-range forecasts. As you can see the title of the thread has been expanded to clarify that this is also the place to discuss BBC weekly forecasts and monthly outlooks. The old thread can be found here.

I'll start by adding the current forecasts from these organisations.

Met Office 5-Day forecast Wed 24th to Sun 28th Nov

Headline: Turning more unsettled, windy and colder over the coming days.

Today: Many southern areas rather cloudy but dry, after any fog clears; odd spots of drizzle in places but some sunnier breaks too. Rain in the northwest will move gradually south, followed by windier, colder weather with sunshine and blustery showers.

Tonight: Weakening rainband continues southeastwards across remaining southern areas, clearing most areas later. Further north windy and cold; inland areas mainly clear but blustery showers around coasts, wintry on Scottish hills.

Thursday: A colder day nearly everywhere, emphasised by brisk winds. Plenty of sunny weather well inland, while areas exposed to the north will see occasional blustery showers punctuated by sunny intervals.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday: Rain moving south on Friday followed by showers which will be wintry at times and continue through Saturday. Drier on Sunday. Very windy for a time, potentially disruptive gales.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 24 Nov 2021

Met Office UK Long-Range Forecast

Sun 28th Nov - Tues 7th Nov (Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 23 Nov 2021)

A more settled day on Sunday with rain and strong winds clearing to the southeast and followed by drier and brighter interludes but remaining cold with patchy frost and ice as well as some hill snow. Some scattered showers could affect eastern coastal districts. Then becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Weds 8th Nov - Weds 22nd Nov (Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 23 Nov 2021)

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

Source of Met Office forecasts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC Monthly Outlook
Last updated 17:39 GMT on Friday 19 November

Summary: Colder weather soon on the way.
After a brief period of mild weather early in the weekend, a surge of colder Icelandic air will spill across the UK by the end of tomorrow as a cold front moves across the country. The below average temperatures will persist over the final ten days of November before getting back to more average readings into December. The drivers of this pattern will be high pressure in the Atlantic and a trough over the North Sea and Continental Europe. These will combine to provide more persistent northerly winds to the UK. A more transient, unsettled pattern is expected to return approaching the second week of December, which should allow for the period of persistent cold to taper off with the return to a more westerly airstream.

Sat 20 Nov to – Sun 28 Nov

A colder pattern soon setting in. Unsettled later.
Spells of rain showers will impact Scotland and Northern Ireland during Saturday, with some snowfall possible in the Scottish Highlands. Breezy westerly winds can also be anticipated ahead of a cold front passing through the UK. The front fragments as it moves South and clears the country early on Sunday. Temperatures will quickly become below normal whilst also bringing chances for a few passing rain showers that will extend southward towards Wales and England. The showers will clear most parts on Monday, but further showers are likely over North Scotland. The pattern will be cold but settled for all parts on Tuesday.
A second cold front will cross the country from Wednesday. This will bring rain to most parts by Thursday. A cold northerly wind follows in astern. Showers will develop behind the cold front that may fall as snow in the northern half of the country. A further frontal system sweeps across the UK later in the week with rain possible on Friday. Showers will follow, perhaps wintry in the north. Breezy, cold and showery through to Sunday with a low pressure system over the North Sea set to maintain a strong northerly flow.

Mon 29 Nov to – Sun 5 Dec

Cold to start; then becoming milder.
The low will remain over the North Sea into Monday before drifting east over Denmark through Tuesday as the Atlantic high builds into Northwest Europe. Eastern areas will experience wet and windy conditions early in the week while Wales and Northern Ireland will be drier. Scotland will be wetter with a series of troughs moving from West to East between Iceland and the UK. Some persistent spells of rain are possible here as well. Some of the rain may reach the southern half of the country later in the week. Below normal temperatures are expected during the first half of the week. Winds turn to a more Westerly direction for all parts on the country by mid-week as high pressure becomes more prominent over Iberia. This will bring in some milder air to most parts. The main alternate scenario for this week will be for high pressure to extend into Europe more quickly and becomes more persistent. This would lead to a milder, drier, and calmer period for the UK. The chances for this scenario developing is around 30%.

Mon 6 Dec to – Mon 20 Dec

Unsettled in Scotland, drier elsewhere. Mild.
A more transient pattern should develop through the second week of December. High pressure in the North Atlantic will occasionally extend towards central Europe with a more active low pressure track to the north of the UK. An increase in wind and precipitation is expected across Ireland and Scotland as the lows track east between Iceland and the UK. Changeable temperatures are anticipated with some warmth in Scotland and Ireland.
By the third week of December, high pressure becomes settled over West Europe, with an occasional extension into Central Europe through the week. The pattern remains unsettled across Scotland. Some temperature variability is anticipated, but slightly warmer temperatures are favoured overall for the week, especially in Northern Ireland. Any wet weather should be limited to Scotland with a drier trend expected further south.
The primary risk for this period would be for high pressure to become more prominent across Central and Southeast Europe later in the period. This would provide wetter and windier conditions, but temperatures would also trend even warmer. There is about a 40% chance that this scenario pans out.

Further ahead
We will see how long any milder patterns will linger into December or if we see a change to a cooler regime.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[mountain shadow]

Oh dear.  Looks very Euro high winter killer to me.

No sign of the MJO providing favourable ridging opportunities. 

 

[SLEETY]

so only 40% chance of it happening,seem bbc and met  just use probability to make these long range forecasts ,so its not certain at all.

Basically guessing good luck to those that swear by these long range forecasts

Edited November 24, 2021 by SLEETY

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and very windy later this week

____________________

Wednesday 24 November to – Sunday 28 November

A cold unsettled week; very windy from Friday

A series of troughs will move south-east over the country for the remainder of the week while high pressure is stationed in the north-east Atlantic. A cold front will cross the country through Wednesday. This will bring rain to most parts through the day, but it is likely to remain dry in parts of southern England as the front fragments.

A further band of more persistent rain will move across Scotland from Thursday evening, reaching further south through Friday. The rain will slowly clear the country from late Saturday, but a further band of rain moves south-east into Scotland later that day with low level snow possible. Temperatures will remain 2-4C below normal through the week in a cold northerly flow with the lowest recordings expected around Friday. Temperatures beginning to climb over the weekend but remain below average.

Light winds are expected over England and Wales at first, but stronger winds over Scotland and Northern Ireland will gradually move south from late Thursday. It will become very windy on Friday for most as the low moves across the country, with winds slowly easing from the north early Sunday morning.

Monday 29 November to – Sunday 5 December

Cold to start, becoming milder. Driest late week

The first half of the week will see a series of troughs moving south-east across the United Kingdom while high pressure persists near the Azores. Later in the week the high moves over Spain and France bringing a more westerly flow, and a series of troughs, across the UK. It will be a showery day on Monday with some snow possible over the Northern Isles. A more persistent band of rain will move across into Tuesday. This will be persistent and heavy at times.

The rain should clear overnight to give a day of scattered showers into Wednesday; these will likely be wintry in the north and more frequent in the east. Showers will clear by Thursday morning ahead of a further band of rain that will move across all parts through the day, with rain slowly clearing through Friday to bring in a more settled weekend except over Scotland. Temperatures will start the week around 1-3C below average, but then slowly get back to more average levels, or even a little higher, from later in the week.

The winds will be changeable throughout the first half of the week and will be mainly from a northerly or north-westerly direction, so it will feel cold. Winds may turn more to a more westerly direction later in the week while remaining breezy in nature. The main alternate scenario for this week is for the Atlantic high to push pushes further into north-west Europe with a deep low near Iceland. This would bring windier conditions to the northern half of the UK but drier and calmer weather for much of England and Wales.

Monday 6 December to – Monday 20 December

Changeable temperatures but with some warmth

For the second week of December, high pressure from the Atlantic periodically shifts across western and central Europe. Low pressure systems bring increased precipitation to Northern Ireland and Scotland. Winds remain elevated for much of the week due to the combination of high and low pressure systems moving across northern Europe. Changeable temperatures are likely. Some brief episodes of warmth are expected, especially over Northern Ireland.

Model guidance has been relatively volatile with the positioning of high pressure moving into Europe, which promotes a bit of uncertainty to the forecast. The risk for this week would be if the high pressure is more persistent over the eastern Atlantic and struggles to advance into western Europe. In which case, a cooler pattern would develop, and it would be wetter in England and Wales.

By the third week of December, the centre of high pressure becomes more favoured in western Europe, a bit closer to the United Kingdom. The pattern is still expected to remain unsettled across Scotland. Temperature variability is expected, but milder spells across Northern Ireland and Scotland should allow for the weekly temperature average to be a bit above normal. Drier, calmer, and sunnier conditions look to build across England and Wales.

The primary risk for this period would be if the high pressure shifts towards central and south-east Europe. This would usher in warmer south-westerly winds, and a wetter and windier pattern would also emerge

Further ahead

We will see how long any milder patterns will linger through December or if we will see a change to a cooler regime. We will also get a long range look towards Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 29 Nov - Wednesday 8 Dec

Cloudy with some rain in the west, spreading eastwards on Monday, although some parts of the east possibly starting dry and frosty, with lighter winds than of late for a time. Staying cold with early and perhaps late frost in places. Becoming largely unsettled through this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Thursday 9 Dec - Thursday 23 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time in the middle of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Mild for much of this period but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 30 Nov - Thursday 9 Dec

Remaining cloudy and mild on Tuesday with further outbreaks of rain, though the east could see brighter and colder conditions initially. Winds remaining fresh. Largely unsettled through the rest of this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest, although a lower risk of wintry conditions than at the start of the period. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Often windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

Tuesday 30 Nov - Thursday 9 Dec

Remaining cloudy and mild on Tuesday with further outbreaks of rain, though the east could see brighter and colder conditions initially. Winds remaining fresh. Largely unsettled through the rest of this period with rain and strong winds often moving in from the west or northwest, although a lower risk of wintry conditions than at the start of the period. Some brighter and drier spells are likely especially in the south and southeast. Often windy with the risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will be milder than of late in the south but remaining mostly rather cold in the north with a risk of hill snow as well as frost and ice.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

BBC forecasts change on a daily basis more so than the 4 GFS runs. When you click on the BBC icons hour to hour.. go back in an hours time and they change.. sometimes from sunshine to rain then back to sun. Terrible for 24 hr forecasts. 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 1 Dec - Friday 10 Dec

Windy day with sunshine and showers on Wednesday, possibly heavy and wintry in the north and west. Winds remaining fresh. Potential for more potent low pressure systems to develop into the weekend, bringing temperatures changing between mild and cold, with a risk of widespread frost in the cold periods. Occasionally windy. Continually unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and calmer conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures likely milder than of late, with the potential for brief colder interludes between systems.

Saturday 11 Dec - Saturday 25 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[johncam]

On 26/11/2021 at 15:29, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 1 Dec - Friday 10 Dec

Windy day with sunshine and showers on Wednesday, possibly heavy and wintry in the north and west. Winds remaining fresh. Potential for more potent low pressure systems to develop into the weekend, bringing temperatures changing between mild and cold, with a risk of widespread frost in the cold periods. Occasionally windy. Continually unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and calmer conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures likely milder than of late, with the potential for brief colder interludes between systems.

Saturday 11 Dec - Saturday 25 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

On the 1st to 10th  seem to have lost the rather cold in North signal

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming milder after Storm Arwen clears

____________________

Saturday 27 November to – Sunday 5 December

Cold and unsettled; milder into the week

After Storm Arwen sweeps through the wind and showers will begin to ease into Sunday which will start cold with temperatures below freezing in places. Sunday will remain colder than average but will see some sunny spells through the day.

From Monday we will see periods of rain over most parts except for Southern England and Southern Wales. Temperatures will begin to rise to more average readings by Tuesday as the wind begins to turn to a westerly direction. Further rain from Tuesday evening, clearing through Wednesday morning as scattered showers develop for most parts.

Thursday will start as a dry day for most ahead of a further band of rain from the afternoon. Rain clearing southeast overnight. Another break in the weather for is possible for Friday except over northern Scotland where further rain is likely. Currently next weekend looks wet for Northern Ireland and Scotland, drier further south.

Monday 6 December to – Sunday 12 December

On the mild side; wetter in the North

High pressure should station itself west of Iberia and France this week, occasionally extending into Western and Central Europe. The main storm track should remain to the north of the country. This synoptic pattern should maintain a slightly milder than average westerly airstream over the UK with most of any wet and windy weather over Northern Ireland & Scotland.

Temperatures will be changeable overall but starting out a little above average for the first half of the week before trending a little lower to average readings by mid-week.

The biggest risk to the forecast this week is the location of the high. Should it become stationed over the East Atlantic and struggles to advance into Europe a cooler pattern would develop. This would cause a wetter England and Wales as well with the storm tracks nearer to the country.

Monday 13 December to – Sunday 26 December

Drier and calmer in the South

Into the first week of this period the centre of high pressure in the Atlantic is a bit further north but remains across Western Europe. The pattern still is expected to remain unsettled across Scotland, but Northern Ireland less so. England and Wales look to be drier, calmer, and sunnier through the week. Temperatures across the week should be a bit above normal.

As we head into the Christmas week high pressure potentially builds over the Atlantic while a trough deepens across the eastern half of Europe. A trend towards a colder and somewhat drier pattern is anticipated during the week, especially across England and Wales later in the week. Most of the precipitation should be confined to Northern Ireland and Scotland where it should remain more seasonal or slightly warmer and a bit windier than normal.

Model performance and consistency remains low towards the end of this outlook with the chance that the cooler pattern is slower to develop keeping most of the UK at or above normal temperatures.

Further ahead

We will see if the cooler pattern is maintained into late December or if we see a change to a warmer regime. We will also get a long range look towards 2022.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Don]

A slightly better forecast from the BBC for those who want a cold outlook.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 2 Dec - Saturday 11 Dec

Showers on Thursday, easing across western areas through the day, wintry across northeastern areas down to lower levels, possibly wintry showers in the southeast. Temperatures below average. A warmer air mass bringing showers, some heavy, on Friday and continuing into the weekend. Strong winds expected, and any snowfall confined to higher ground. Continually unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and drier conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Often mild into the week, with the potential for brief colder interludes at times.

Sunday 12 Dec - Sunday 26 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Scandinavian High.]

I wonder if there be a change or not.

[Rollo]

This looking up at a dangling carrot surely cannot go on much longer, I have always been an ecm man but today?

[Summer Sun]

Friday 3 Dec - Sunday 12 Dec

Wintry precipitation moving eastward overnight Friday. Snow possible at low-levels across northern England and Scotland for a time, before turning to rain away from high ground. Further south snow likely confined to high ground. Brighter showery conditions following, these frequent and heavy in the northwest, wintry over high ground. Remaining windy, with gales possible in exposed northern areas. Temperatures near normal. Continuing unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. Likely the wettest conditions to be in the west and northwest, and drier conditions in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Often mild, with the potential for brief colder interludes.

Monday 13 Dec - Monday 27 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Think both are under playing the depth of the cold pool developing just to our north east.. I doubt the Atlantic will have an easy ride if steam rolling through in December.. already the signals for opening part of December are for anything particularly mild.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 4 Dec - Monday 13 Dec

A mainly fine and dry start on Saturday with showers in the west, these potentially wintry in the northwest. Heavy rain will spread across most areas throughout the day which will likely fall as snow over Scottish high ground. It will remain windy with coastal gales in the west. Temperatures will be near normal in the southeast and cold in the north. Continuing unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the west and northwest, and drier in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Mild, with the potential for brief colder interludes.

Tuesday 14 Dec - Tuesday 28 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Summer Sun

[SLEETY]

met not going for a cold winther then,forecast just been released

 

UK_outlook_combined_final_update (metoffice.gov.uk)

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 4 Dec - Monday 13 Dec

A mainly fine and dry start on Saturday with showers in the west, these potentially wintry in the northwest. Heavy rain will spread across most areas throughout the day which will likely fall as snow over Scottish high ground. It will remain windy with coastal gales in the west. Temperatures will be near normal in the southeast and cold in the north. Continuing unsettled through the rest of this period with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed with brighter interludes accompanied with showers. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the west and northwest, and drier in the south towards the end of the period. Often windy with a risk of gales at times, especially in the north and northwest. Mild, with the potential for brief colder interludes.

Tuesday 14 Dec - Tuesday 28 Dec

Overall, through this period it is expected to be unsettled and changeable with milder and wetter than average conditions for most, bringing a risk of stormy conditions. Perhaps turning more settled in southern regions for a time nearer the start of this period, which will increase the risk of frost and fog when skies clear overnight. Temperatures on the milder side for much of this period, but some short lived colder spells are possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This will change tomorrow if EC is correct this evening...

That's a big if !

[northwestsnow]

It's changed ,with more emphasis on cold , but also on rain.

Yuk.

[Rayth]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's changed ,with more emphasis on cold , but also on rain.

Yuk.

Might change again... isnt this the guy that writes these 

 

[Don]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's changed ,with more emphasis on cold , but also on rain.

Yuk.

Looks like an improvement to me, especially for more northern areas in the mid term with the chance of rain turning wintry?

 

[joggs]

An improvement to me.

Also like the fact that the Xmas period could be dry and cold.

Suggest more amplification down the track.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 5 Dec - Tuesday 14 Dec

Rain and strong winds likely to clear Sunday morning from southeastern areas, with a mixture of sunny spells and showers elsewhere. Showers mainly confined to coastal districts with inland areas likely to remain largely dry. Rather cold with overnight frost and icy patches possible. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather dominates with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by interludes of sunshine and showers. More prolonged spells of rain are possible, heavy at times. Initially these more likely across the south and west, although the greatest risk probably transfers north through the period, which could then see rain turning wintry at times. Generally cold, with milder interludes briefly in the south. Overnight frost and icy patches likely throughout.

Wednesday 15 Dec - Wednesday 29 Dec

Remaining generally unsettled at first, with wettest and windiest conditions likely moving further north with drier and brighter spells developing in the south and southeast at times. Temperatures likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[cobbett]

Well that update is just pants