Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Don]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Well that update is just pants

Seen worse at this time of year.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 6 Dec - Wednesday 15 Dec

A cold start to Monday with overnight frost and ice possible. Cloud increasing from the west through the day with outbreaks of rain, possibly wintry down to low levels at times in the north and east of the UK. Likely turning windier during the day with strong winds most likely in the west. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather dominates with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by interludes of sunshine and showers. More prolonged spells of rain are possible, heavy at times. Initially these more likely across the south and west, although the greatest risk probably transfers north through the period, which could then see rain turning wintry at times. Generally cold, with milder interludes briefly in the south. Overnight frost and icy patches likely throughout.

Monday 6 Dec - Wednesday 15 Dec

A cold start to Monday with overnight frost and ice possible. Cloud increasing from the west through the day with outbreaks of rain, possibly wintry down to low levels at times in the north and east of the UK. Likely turning windier during the day with strong winds most likely in the west. For the rest of the period, unsettled weather dominates with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by interludes of sunshine and showers. More prolonged spells of rain are possible, heavy at times. Initially these more likely across the south and west, although the greatest risk probably transfers north through the period, which could then see rain turning wintry at times. Generally cold, with milder interludes briefly in the south. Overnight frost and icy patches likely throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy; Calmer from mid-December

____________________

Wednesday 1 December to – Sunday 5 December

Cold and unsettled after a mild Wednesday

Wednesday will see scattered showers develop for most parts, wintry in Scotland and falling as snow over high ground. It will feel cold with a northly flow in place. Showers will begin to die out overnight into Thursday which will start as a dry day for most ahead of a band of rain moving in from the west in the evening. Friday should be a fair day for Wales and England but further showery rain will develop in Northern Ireland and Scotland from the afternoon. After a mild Wednesday, temperatures will remain mainly below average for the remaining of the working week.

Saturday will be a day of scattered showers for most of the country, but they will be more frequent and perhaps wintry over Scotland. The showers will begin to die out later Saturday. Sunday should start dry, perhaps with some sunny spells, but cloud will increase over Northern Ireland, Wales and Southwest England and a band of rain will approach. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be 1-2C below average.

Monday 6 December to – Sunday 12 December

A little milder but periods of wind and rain

High pressure should station itself west- southwest of Iberia this week, a little further south than previously expected with less push into the European continent. This will mean the Atlantic storm tracks are expected to be further south with several affecting the UK through the week.

Dry in the southern half of the country at first on Monday, some rain is possible further north. The first main band of persistent rain will move across Northern Ireland from the west in the morning, reaching all parts through the day. Becoming windy as well. The rain will clear to the east through Tuesday to give a better day on Wednesday although some showers are likely. Temperatures will be around 2-3C below average over the first half of the week. We expect it to get a little warmer towards the weekend.

Monday 13 December to – Sunday 26 December

Drier and calmer in the South

Atlantic high pressure should become established across Europe with lower pressure across Scandinavia. The pattern remains active across Scotland, while England and Wales should trend drier, less windy and sunnier. Temperatures slightly above average overall but near normal in Scotland.
As we head into the Christmas week things become more unsure with the models not performing well. Currently it looks like high pressure builds over the Atlantic while a trough deepens across the eastern half of Europe. This trends towards a colder and somewhat drier pattern especially across England and Wales later in the week. Most of the precipitation should be confined to Northern Ireland and Scotland.

There is a chance that the cooler pattern is slower to develop in the Christmas week and conditions from the previous seven days persist keeping most of the UK at or above normal temperatures.

Further ahead

Will the cooler pattern is maintained into late December or if we see a change to a warmer regime. We will also get first look towards 2022.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 8 Dec - Friday 17 Dec

A largely unsettled start to the period, with showers likely for most and a chance of snow across northern Scotland. Showers, as well as some longer spells of rain continuing into Wednesday with blustery winds, particularly over high ground. These unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period with longer spells of rain affecting most of the country, with the potential to turn heavy in southern areas. Following these periods of rain, showery conditions are likely, with a chance of snow even at lower elevations. Feeling cold in the north, with the potential to spread further south at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions likely with mild temperatures, but the chance of some cold interludes bringing a risk of frost.

Saturday 18 Dec - Saturday 1 Jan

Getting into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[blizzard81]

Met office for next week dropped the temps down from 7 deg midweek to 5. Nice trend. Keep it coming. 

[SLEETY]

Sounds like the Azores high building North IF the latest met forecast is correct for the rest of the months,rubbish if its correct and your hoping for snow, that would be one month of winter gone. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet & windy at times; calmer from mid-December

____________________

Saturday 4 December to – Sunday 12 December

Very wet and windy at times

A series of troughs will move over the country with a deep low expected to affect the country from Tuesday. In between the passage of these troughs the Atlantic high will occasionally push transitory ridges towards the country bringing some respite. Temperatures will be 1-3C below average for much of the week.
Saturday will be a day of scattered showers for the north and west, drier in the south-east. The showers will begin to die out later on Saturday. Sunday should start dry, perhaps with some sunny spells as well as the day goes on. Later on Sunday clouds will increase over Northern Ireland, Wales, and south-west England and a band of rain will approach. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be 1-2C below average.
Into the working week, a band of rain will move across from early Monday, clearing to the east in the afternoon. A further band of rain will move across into Tuesday slowly clearing through the day as winds begin to increase. Very windy over most parts with showery rain developing into Wednesday. Winds ease on Thursday but still a few showers. Friday may see a calmer day ahead of a further band of wet and windy conditions over the weekend.

Monday 13 December to – Sunday 19 December

Periods of wind and rain mainly in the Northwest

High pressure should station itself over central Europe this week. This will push the Atlantic storm tracks further north than in the previous week which should be good for the south-east of the country by midweek, but Northern Ireland and Scotland may remain more unsettled.
Settled and dry over England and Wales after a wet start to the week. It will be windier with occasional bouts of rain for Northern Ireland and Scotland throughout the week. Temperatures are expected to be around 1-2C above average over the first half of the week.
This pattern should persist into the weekend when the high may move further north-west over the British Isles bringing calmer conditions for all parts of the country. Temperatures towards the end of the week and over the weekend should be around 2-3C above average.

Monday 20 December to – Sunday 2 January

More settled weather for all parts

The high is favoured across North West Europe to Central and South East Europe over the first week with the lower pressure now further north of the British Isles. This will bring a trend towards a colder and somewhat drier pattern, especially across the western parts and Scotland. Northern Ireland could remain more seasonal. England and Wales see mainly calm conditions and any rain should be confined to Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland as well. Temperatures over the first week of this period are expected to be a little lower than average overall.

By the second week and into the New Year the high is expected to extend from Western Europe into the East Atlantic with low pressure favoured over Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. A trend towards a dry pattern is anticipated this week, especially across England. Most areas should remain more seasonal or slightly cooler. Scotland should see the only chance of some rain with a low chance of any lowland snow.

There is a chance that the high is located further south to the west of Iberia late in this period, with increased troughing over Northeast Europe. This would bring more unsettled conditions with some lower temperatures.

Further ahead

Will the seasonal pattern continue in January or if we see a change to a cooler pattern into the new year?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 10 Dec - Sunday 19 Dec

Remaining largely unsettled on Friday, particularly in the west, with showers or longer spells of rain at times, and snow possible across higher ground, mainly in the north. Looking drier in the east with some brighter spells. Generally light winds, and temperatures near to, or slightly below average. Showers and longer spells of rain for most through the weekend, with some hill snow likely at times, mainly in the north. Temperatures generally around average. Stronger winds at times, especially in the west, where these may reach gale force. Further into the period, blustery showers and longer spells of rain for a time before more settled conditions look likely to develop, most likely with milder temperatures, but a chance of some briefer colder interludes, bringing an occasional risk of frost.

Monday 20 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to, or above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 11 Dec - Monday 20 Dec

To begin the period, drier and clearer conditions are likely, allowing for more extensive frost and patchy fog. Cloud and strong winds will travel east across the country, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain for many. Hill snow likely in the north. Temperatures generally around average. Moving through the period, largely unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with the chance of further showers and longer spells of rain, heavy in places, with a chance of gales. Some showers are likely to turn wintry on hills at times. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions are likely to develop, most likely with milder temperatures, but a chance of some brief colder interludes.

Tuesday 21 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to, or above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Mmm still too much of a wide window in these forecasts, colder spells possible, but nearer average or milder... lots of bases covered.

[MattStoke]

Yesterday's update. 'temperatures above normal' has gone.

Sunday 12 Dec - Tuesday 21 Dec

A chance of bright spells in the east, with showers feeding in from western coasts to begin the period. A chance of further cloud and persistent rain to move into parts of the west. Hill snow likely in the north. Temperatures generally around average, with a chance of strong winds along southern and northwestern coasts. Moving through the period, largely unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with the chance of further showers and longer spells of rain, heavy in places, with a chance of gales for some exposed areas. Potential for drier and brighter conditions in the east at times. Some showers are likely to turn wintry at higher elevations. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions may develop with some cold interludes likely.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 7 Dec 2021

Wednesday 22 Dec - Wednesday 5 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, temperatures are most likely to be close to normal for the time of year, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

[Norrance]

Mild back today. Not really what I wanted to see. A hint of some frost later in the period may appease some though.

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 14 Dec - Thursday 23 Dec

Generally unsettled throughout the period, with cloud and outbreaks of rain clearing eastwards at first. Perhaps some frost in the north, but then rain and strong winds likely following from the west. Looking to be drier for many central and eastern locations, with some potentially heavy rain arriving to northern and western areas at times, accompanied by a risk of gales. The best chance of drier and brighter conditions in the east. Temperatures are looking to be rather mild throughout. Towards the end of the period, settled conditions may develop, however the north and west perhaps experiencing some longer spells of rain. Temperatures likely remaining rather mild, though a risk of frost is possible during some colder interludes.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 9 Dec 2021

Friday 24 Dec - Friday 7 Jan

Heading into the Christmas period, settled conditions are likely. Temperatures perhaps close to or slightly above average for this time of year, however some colder interludes may bring a risk of frost at times. The last week of December and into early January is looking to remain settled, with an increasing chance of frost and fog during clearer spells for Christmas and towards New Year.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 9 Dec 2021

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[damianslaw]

It's very poorly worded which makes me give it less respect. What is the last week of December? 27th onwards... the time periods seem to merge into one another or sometimes cancel each other out.. 

[joggs]

The BBC ones have been laughable most of the times.

Truth is, no-one can predict that far ahead(longer than two weeks?).

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 15 Dec - Friday 24 Dec

Wednesday is expected to be breezy and cool in the northwest with sunshine and showers. Further south, although it will be milder, it is likely to be cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Thereafter, it should become drier and more settled in the south, with this more settled weather extending to all areas by the weekend. After starting rather overcast, cloud amounts should reduce with time, with the risk of overnight frost and fog increasing. The fog could be slow to clear in the mornings, perhaps lasting all day in some places. Some rain is still possible at times in the far northwest. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for most, but milder in the northwest and perhaps turning rather cold in the south in time for Christmas.

Saturday 25 Dec - Saturday 8 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with an increasing risk of frost and fog for Christmas and New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 25 Dec - Saturday 8 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with an increasing risk of frost and fog for Christmas and New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

A rather pants update for coldies!  However, that's a long way off.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Don

[MattStoke]

On 08/12/2021 at 12:52, MattStoke said:

Yesterday's update. 'temperatures above normal' has gone.

Sunday 12 Dec - Tuesday 21 Dec

A chance of bright spells in the east, with showers feeding in from western coasts to begin the period. A chance of further cloud and persistent rain to move into parts of the west. Hill snow likely in the north. Temperatures generally around average, with a chance of strong winds along southern and northwestern coasts. Moving through the period, largely unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with the chance of further showers and longer spells of rain, heavy in places, with a chance of gales for some exposed areas. Potential for drier and brighter conditions in the east at times. Some showers are likely to turn wintry at higher elevations. Towards the end of the period, more settled conditions may develop with some cold interludes likely.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 7 Dec 2021

Wednesday 22 Dec - Wednesday 5 Jan

Going into the Christmas period, temperatures are most likely to be close to normal for the time of year, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

I just had to jinx it....

[Norrance]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday 15 Dec - Friday 24 Dec

Wednesday is expected to be breezy and cool in the northwest with sunshine and showers. Further south, although it will be milder, it is likely to be cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Thereafter, it should become drier and more settled in the south, with this more settled weather extending to all areas by the weekend. After starting rather overcast, cloud amounts should reduce with time, with the risk of overnight frost and fog increasing. The fog could be slow to clear in the mornings, perhaps lasting all day in some places. Some rain is still possible at times in the far northwest. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for most, but milder in the northwest and perhaps turning rather cold in the south in time for Christmas.

Saturday 25 Dec - Saturday 8 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with an increasing risk of frost and fog for Christmas and New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I cannot think of a worse long ranger for those that crave snow. A real blow for the ski areas up here too after a goid base building week just past.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Norrance

[syed2878]

5 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I wouldn't  give that extended outlook that much credence. Even though I have great respect for the Met Office their 15-30 dayer often reeks of describing climatology which is the safest bet when there isn't  a strong signal in any one direction. 

 Sorry but I must disagree majority of the time the extended outlook does bare fruits unfortunately for those of us who like proper winter weather this is why I don’t get excited by all these fantastic winter charts from GFS until the Met are on board.  

[damianslaw]

Mmmm very uninspiring. Met Office held steadfast with its suggestion of settled weather in the run up to christmas and over christmas but then a return to what looks like westerlies. We shall see.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmmm very uninspiring. Met Office held steadfast with its suggestion of settled weather in the run up to christmas and over christmas but then a return to what looks like westerlies. We shall see.

I suppose it would fit in with their contingency forecast to be fair.  Just have to hope it's wrong.

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

 Sorry but I must disagree majority of the time the extended outlook does bare fruits unfortunately for those of us who like proper winter weather this is why I don’t get excited by all these fantastic winter charts from GFS until the Met are on board.  

I actually agree with you syed. Unless the Met are on board it often doesn't happen, but the problem is they rarely come on board until its obvious to all and sundry. But as the national they have to be careful otherwise the like of the daily express just go armsgeddon mental.

The reason their 15 -30 dayer sometimes bears fruit sometimes is because we have a westerly driven climate. So quoting  climatology will often suffice. 

[Kasim Awan]

36 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I actually agree with you syed. Unless the Met are on board it often doesn't happen, but the problem is they rarely come on board until its obvious to all and sundry. But as the national they have to be careful otherwise the like of the daily express just go armsgeddon mental.

The reason their 15 -30 dayer sometimes bears fruit sometimes is because we have a westerly driven climate. So quoting  climatology will often suffice. 

I am in disagreement here lol. The extended charts usually do a decent job at picking up on broad scale changes, trends, not definite outcomes. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to unbiasly interpret these, without kneejerking around output, nor remaining fixed on one outcome or synoptic progression. If this is done, there can be a whole lot of use in extended charts. Other organisations don't have access to a whole lot more data than us, it's unlikely that the glosea has resolved this fully. So the met office are most likely restricted to the extended forecasting methods touched on above. So, it's likely that they are fully aware of the potential but are perhaps restricted to quite strict extended forecasting models and interpretation standards . They are limited to discussion of models and probabilities also due to the public being the main reader. So, given all that, I would trust the collective interpretation on this forum over the met office long term paragraph. Mods, feel free to move this post to a thread for which it is more suited :).

 

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Uncertainty]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I am in disagreement here lol. The extended charts usually do a decent job at picking up on broad scale changes, trends, not definite outcomes, mind. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to unbiasly interpret these, without kneejerking around output, nor remaining fixed on one outcome or synoptic progression. If this is done, there can be a whole lot of use in extended charts. Other organisations don't have access to a whole lot more data than us, it's unlikely that the glosea has resolved this fully. So the met office are most likely restricted to the extended forecasting methods touched on above. So, it's likely that they are fully aware of the potential but are perhaps restricted to quite strict extended forecasting models and interpretation standards . They are limited to discussion of models and probabilities also due to the public being the main reader. So, given all that, I would trust the collective interpretation on this forum over the met office long term paragraph. Mods, feel free to move this post to a thread for which it is more suited :).

 

 

The MO have to cover a lot of bases. They’ll be thinking what we’re thinking Kasim but they need to wait until they’ve got harder evidence. Virtually all human written LRFs for this winter are going for colder than average. Even the likes of Accuweather who generally and often correctly hit the climatology readout. Aside from the SPV and the warmer trends in the climate, virtually every other driver points towards a colder/cold winter. Big test coming up this: seasonals / strong vortex vs analogs / signals/ human reasoning and intuition. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

The MO have to cover a lot of bases. They’ll be thinking what we’re thinking Kasim but they need to wait until they’ve got harder evidence. Virtually all human written LRFs for this winter are going for colder than average. Even the likes of Accuweather who generally and often correctly hit the climatology readout. Aside from the SPV and the warmer trends in the climate, virtually every other driver points towards a colder/cold winter. Big test coming up this seasonals / strong vortex vs analogs / signals/ human reasoning and intuition. 

This is a really good point.  Because nearly all the seasonal numerical models have pointed in exactly the opposite direction to what many of us think, i.e. they suggest a mild zonal winter.  But the Met office are extremely model driven, and I would expect that if something notable is going to happen this winter, against those seasonal model predictions, you’d see it here first, before the MO shift to cold.