Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[That ECM]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Garbage update again..

Beginning to wonder if EC 00z is a mirage because it most certainly is  NOT reflected in the update today.

Maybe they feel more of a west flow as opposed to nw and uppers will be higher than shown be ecm? 

[cheshire snow]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Garbage update again..

Beginning to wonder if EC 00z is a mirage because it most certainly is  NOT reflected in the update today.

Reflects the week ahead forecast at lunchtime by next weekend they said remaining mild and no signs of any colder weather,maybe the GFS is correct

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Reflects the week ahead forecast at lunchtime by next weekend they said remaining mild and no signs of any colder weather,maybe the GFS is correct

That would be annoying but gfs would be chuckling. we will see.

[RhHh]

12 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Reflects the week ahead forecast at lunchtime by next weekend they said remaining mild and no signs of any colder weather,maybe the GFS is correct

You'll know our chances of snow are scuppered if they put Darren Bett on next Sunday lunchtime!

[Penrith Snow]

Don't be concerned yet about the MetO update, they are often well behind the curve when change is coming. Pre Christmas they were still predicting a cold wintry New Year when the models had well and truly turned against it.

The next few days will be crucial in firming up on any coldish spell later in January although TBH I am expecting cold North Westerly shots at best with no real sign of embedded cold.

However, at the moment some cold zonality would be a dream compared to the dross of recent weeks.

Andy

[Summer Sun]

Friday 13 Jan - Sunday 22 Jan

On Friday, a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, across many areas, which may be locally heavy. Showers most frequent across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Windy conditions across large parts, with gales in places. These conditions continue into the weekend with most frequent showers likely in northern and western areas. Later in the period, unsettled conditions are expected to persist with showers or longer spells of rain for all areas at times. Any drier or more settled interludes will likely be brief. Wettest conditions will be in the west, any snow mostly likely restricted to high ground in the north. Windy conditions are often likely. Temperatures perhaps likely to be colder than of late to start, but returning to around average, occasionally mild.

Monday 23 Jan - Monday 6 Feb

The end of January may see more settled conditions, particularly across the south, with spells of strong winds and rain confined to northern areas for a time. Into the start of February, confidence is markedly low. A return to unsettled conditions is most likely, with further spells of strong winds and rain for all areas. Temperatures generally mild, although some colder interludes likely, bringing wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

Don't be concerned yet about the MetO update, they are often well behind the curve when change is coming. Pre Christmas they were still predicting a cold wintry New Year when the models had well and truly turned against it.

The next few days will be crucial in firming up on any coldish spell later in January although TBH I am expecting cold North Westerly shots at best with no real sign of embedded cold.

However, at the moment some cold zonality would be a dream compared to the dross of recent weeks.

Andy

What curve and why?? Tia 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

What curve and why?? Tia 

Looks bang average to me tbh 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for the week ahead

• Often wet and windy
• Mainly mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64204954

 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC weather for the week ahead

• Often wet and windy
• Mainly mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64204954

 

Nothing of any real interest unless you like the wind and rain!

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 14 Jan - Monday 23 Jan

On Saturday, showers or rain, locally heavy, with some bright or sunny spells at times. Drier conditions more likely in the north, whereas southern areas will perhaps see some persistent, heavy rain. Windy, especially across parts of the west/southwest. On Sunday, low pressure will probably be replaced by a ridge from the west, introducing a colder northerly flow. Conditions will be a mix of sunny spells with the occasional shower, wintry in the north. Rain, likely on Monday from the west/northwest. Later in the period unsettled conditions are expected to persist with showers or longer spells of rain for all areas at times. Any drier or more settled interludes will likely be brief. Wettest conditions will be in the west. Windy conditions are often likely. Temperatures around average, occasionally mild.

Tuesday 24 Jan - Tuesday 7 Feb

The end of January may see more settled conditions, particularly across the south, with spells of strong winds and rain confined to northern areas for a time. Into the start of February, confidence is markedly low. A return to unsettled conditions is most likely, with further spells of strong winds and rain for all areas. Temperatures generally mild, although some colder interludes likely, bringing wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Saturday 14 Jan - Monday 23 Jan

On Saturday, showers or rain, locally heavy, with some bright or sunny spells at times. Drier conditions more likely in the north, whereas southern areas will perhaps see some persistent, heavy rain. Windy, especially across parts of the west/southwest. On Sunday, low pressure will probably be replaced by a ridge from the west, introducing a colder northerly flow. Conditions will be a mix of sunny spells with the occasional shower, wintry in the north. Rain, likely on Monday from the west/northwest. Later in the period unsettled conditions are expected to persist with showers or longer spells of rain for all areas at times. Any drier or more settled interludes will likely be brief. Wettest conditions will be in the west. Windy conditions are often likely. Temperatures around average, occasionally mild.

Tuesday 24 Jan - Tuesday 7 Feb

The end of January may see more settled conditions, particularly across the south, with spells of strong winds and rain confined to northern areas for a time. Into the start of February, confidence is markedly low. A return to unsettled conditions is most likely, with further spells of strong winds and rain for all areas. Temperatures generally mild, although some colder interludes likely, bringing wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

All bases covered, can't be wrong that way

[Chesil View]

I tend to find the 15 to 30 dayer is really just a description of average seasonal climatology. Especially when there isn't a strong signal.

[Rain All Night]

Ta-da!

Sunday 15 Jan - Tuesday 24 Jan

Much of this period is likely to be unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping across the country, these most likely across the north and west. On Sunday, as temperatures become increasingly cooler, these showers are likely to become wintry across the north. A temporary spell of milder conditions is possible across the south midweek, however by the end of the week, most areas should see a return to below average temperatures. These cooler conditions are likely to allow the wintry showers to return, bringing an increasing likelihood of snow across northern regions down to lower levels. Fresh and breezy winds are often likely, becoming stronger at times with a risk of gales.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 10 Jan 2023

[cheshire snow]

@northwestsnowwill be pleased 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

@northwestsnowwill be pleased 

It's much better

TBH I'm more interested in snow down to lower levels,that's a hefty upgrade.

Hoping as many as possible see some snow  

[Allseasons-Si]

At last the Meto are coming on board but the ext'd hasn't updated yet.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 15 Jan - Tuesday 24 Jan

Much of this period is likely to be unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping across the country, these most likely across the north and west. On Sunday, as temperatures become increasingly cooler, these showers are likely to become wintry across the north. A temporary spell of milder conditions is possible across the south midweek, however by the end of the week, most areas should see a return to below average temperatures. These cooler conditions are likely to allow the wintry showers to return, bringing an increasing likelihood of snow across northern regions down to lower levels. Fresh and breezy winds are often likely, becoming stronger at times with a risk of gales.

Wednesday 25 Jan - Wednesday 8 Feb

The end of January may see more settled conditions, particularly across the south, with spells of strong winds and rain confined to northern areas for a time. Into the start of February, confidence is markedly low. A return to unsettled conditions is most likely, with further spells of strong winds and rain for all areas. Temperatures generally mild, although some colder interludes likely, bringing wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

It's much better

TBH I'm more interested in snow down to lower levels,that's a hefty upgrade.

Hoping as many as possible see some snow  

Agreed, no complaints from me with that update!!

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Ta-da!

Sunday 15 Jan - Tuesday 24 Jan

Much of this period is likely to be unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping across the country, these most likely across the north and west. On Sunday, as temperatures become increasingly cooler, these showers are likely to become wintry across the north. A temporary spell of milder conditions is possible across the south midweek, however by the end of the week, most areas should see a return to below average temperatures. These cooler conditions are likely to allow the wintry showers to return, bringing an increasing likelihood of snow across northern regions down to lower levels. Fresh and breezy winds are often likely, becoming stronger at times with a risk of gales.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 10 Jan 2023

Quite an upgrade medium term for colder and more wintry. Should use word colder not cooler, relative to last 3-4 weeks it will be quite a bit colder.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 15 Jan - Tuesday 24 Jan

Much of this period is likely to be unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping across the country, these most likely across the north and west. On Sunday, as temperatures become increasingly cooler, these showers are likely to become wintry across the north. A temporary spell of milder conditions is possible across the south midweek, however by the end of the week, most areas should see a return to below average temperatures. These cooler conditions are likely to allow the wintry showers to return, bringing an increasing likelihood of snow across northern regions down to lower levels. Fresh and breezy winds are often likely, becoming stronger at times with a risk of gales.

Wednesday 25 Jan - Wednesday 8 Feb

The end of January may see more settled conditions, particularly across the south, with spells of strong winds and rain confined to northern areas for a time. Into the start of February, confidence is markedly low. A return to unsettled conditions is most likely, with further spells of strong winds and rain for all areas. Temperatures generally mild, although some colder interludes likely, bringing wintry conditions at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Still waiting for lowland snow in the South to be mentioned.

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Still waiting for lowland snow in the South to be mentioned.

Still time for upgrades. 

[Rain All Night]

21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A temporary spell of milder conditions is possible across the south midweek, however by the end of the week, most areas should see a return to below average temperatures.

Who's expecting this sentence to still be there this afternoon? 

[Frigid]

BBC monthly outlook suggesting a cooler 2nd half to January. Possibly a lot drier also 

BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and videos from the BBC Weather Centre.

 

[Rain All Night]

@Nick F has shared some thoughts on the MJO aspect of that forecast in another thread...