Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thursday 16 Feb - Saturday 25 Feb

Periods of rainfall are likely to affect parts of the UK for a time on Thursday, with northern areas seeing showers during the afternoon, perhaps merging to a longer spell of rain, while some southern parts could see wet weather approaching from the west as the day proceeds. For much of the rest of the period, a low pressure system located to the northwest could bring widespread frontal activity, with the north and northwest expected to see the most unsettled conditions with spells of rain and stronger winds. The south and east are likely to see drier conditions, but more unsettled periods remain possible, bringing some wetter weather. Temperatures overall rather mild, but overnight frost could develop, especially in the south and east.

Sunday 26 Feb - Sunday 12 Mar

The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest conditions most probable across the northwest. The south and east could see some shorter spells of wet weather, although some more settled conditions remain probable. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK, with low pressure dominating over the south and southwest. This could introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north whilst the south could see some wetter conditions. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility, bringing widespread wintry conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Sounds naff

[dryfie]

26 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Sounds naff

Sorry, but does that mean good or bad?

[Allseasons-Si]

31 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Sounds naff

nothing has changed,...it's the same ext'd update as yesterday

maybe the wording will change at the start of next week.

[Don]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Sounds naff

Yep, gone from a possibility to a low possibility.  I won't be rushing out to buy a sledge just yet!!

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, dryfie said:

Sorry, but does that mean good or bad?

bad lol

[Don]

2 hours ago, dryfie said:

Sorry, but does that mean good or bad?

Bad if you're a fan of snow!

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Becoming unsettled. Mild until March

Saturday 11 February to – Sunday 19 February

Mild and becoming wetter from midweek onwards

Monday 20 February to – Sunday 26 February

Becoming somewhat drier and less mild

Monday 27 February to – Sunday 12 March

Potentially turning colder in March

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 17 Feb - Sunday 26 Feb

Friday is likely to be changeable, with widespread cloud and some organised rain moving eastwards through the day, followed by clearer conditions with sunny spells and showers, heavy at times in the north. The driest conditions are expected in the southeast, with a few sunny spells possible at first. Winds generally light to start, but increasing through the day with the strongest winds around northern coasts. Through the rest of the period, low pressure located to the northwest could bring frontal systems, with associated spells of rain and stronger winds in the north and northwest. The south and east are likely to see drier, more settled conditions, but more unsettled periods remain possible, bringing some wetter and windier weather. Temperatures overall rather mild, but overnight frost and fog could develop.

Monday 27 Feb - Monday 13 Mar

The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest weather most probable across the northwest. The south and east may see some shorter spells of wet weather, although overall conditions should remain drier and more settled. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south. This is likely to introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north and wetter conditions in the south. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility and could bring spells of wintry weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need a bit more than just “potential” !!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Friday 17 Feb - Sunday 26 Feb

Friday is likely to be changeable, with widespread cloud and some organised rain moving eastwards through the day, followed by clearer conditions with sunny spells and showers, heavy at times in the north. The driest conditions are expected in the southeast, with a few sunny spells possible at first. Winds generally light to start, but increasing through the day with the strongest winds around northern coasts. Through the rest of the period, low pressure located to the northwest could bring frontal systems, with associated spells of rain and stronger winds in the north and northwest. The south and east are likely to see drier, more settled conditions, but more unsettled periods remain possible, bringing some wetter and windier weather. Temperatures overall rather mild, but overnight frost and fog could develop.

Monday 27 Feb - Monday 13 Mar

The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest weather most probable across the northwest. The south and east may see some shorter spells of wet weather, although overall conditions should remain drier and more settled. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south. This is likely to introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north and wetter conditions in the south. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility and could bring spells of wintry weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

Very sitting on the fence at this range, but with high pressure to the north and low pressure to south, I can't see anything but colder than average temperatures with such synoptics in early March,  I think the reference to much colder temperatures leaves the door open for this to change, but the Met quite rightly will be waiting to see what happens post SSW.. but they clearly see high lattitude blocking, I guess not clear on the orientation of heights at this stage.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 18 Feb - Monday 27 Feb

On Saturday, a further warm front will push northeastwards, reintroducing mild and moist conditions countrywide bringing cloudy skies, with drizzle for windward coasts and upland areas. Fairly breezy with the best of the cloud breaks found in the lee of higher ground. The heaviest rain is likely to be across northwestern hills once again. Later in the period, low pressure is likely to the north with higher pressure building from the south. Frontal zones in the northwest are likely, making progress south or southeastwards, but bringing most of the rainfall to the northwest. Otherwise, a good deal of dry weather with clear and sunny spells, allowing isolated fog patches to form overnight in the south where lighter winds. Windy at times in the north. Temperatures remain generally milder than average.

Tuesday 28 Feb - Tuesday 14 Mar

The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest weather most probable across the northwest. The south and east may see some shorter spells of wet weather, although overall conditions should remain drier and more settled. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK and low pressure to the south. This is likely to introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north and wetter conditions in the south. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a small possibility and could bring spells of wintry weather.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 19 Feb - Tuesday 28 Feb

On Sunday, a cloudy start to the day for most with some light rain or drizzle at times, clearing through the day. Brighter from the start further north, with these conditions expected to extend further south throughout the day. For the first half of the period, low pressure will dominate to the north and higher pressure to the south. This is likely to lead to dry conditions in south and eastern areas with some overnight mist and fog. More changeable, unsettled conditions with spells or rain and stronger winds at times are likely in the north. Towards the end of the period, there is a greater of high pressure dominating across the UK. Temperatures overall milder than average, but a continued risk of cold nights in places.

Wednesday 1 Mar - Wednesday 15 Mar

At the start of March, high pressure will likely dominate across the UK, with any more unsettled weather likely to be across the far north or northwest. Generally drier more settled conditions are expected, with occasional spells of unsettled weather possible at times, especially in the south. Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period. Temperatures will likely be around or slightly above average for the whole period, with perhaps colder conditions relative to average more likely later in the period. There remains a small probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Sunday 19 Feb - Tuesday 28 Feb

On Sunday, a cloudy start to the day for most with some light rain or drizzle at times, clearing through the day. Brighter from the start further north, with these conditions expected to extend further south throughout the day. For the first half of the period, low pressure will dominate to the north and higher pressure to the south. This is likely to lead to dry conditions in south and eastern areas with some overnight mist and fog. More changeable, unsettled conditions with spells or rain and stronger winds at times are likely in the north. Towards the end of the period, there is a greater of high pressure dominating across the UK. Temperatures overall milder than average, but a continued risk of cold nights in places.

Wednesday 1 Mar - Wednesday 15 Mar

At the start of March, high pressure will likely dominate across the UK, with any more unsettled weather likely to be across the far north or northwest. Generally drier more settled conditions are expected, with occasional spells of unsettled weather possible at times, especially in the south. Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period. Temperatures will likely be around or slightly above average for the whole period, with perhaps colder conditions relative to average more likely later in the period. There remains a small probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

Not a great update for the extended!

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Not a great update for the extended!

Just suggests that they may see the effects of the SSW taking there time to bed in, but as many are speculating at this range non-one knows how and when any effects will manifest. There is lots of room and time for them to bring any possible colder conditions forward, alas they may not until certain when these will occur. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Just suggests that they may see the effects of the SSW taking there time to bed in, but as many are speculating at this range non-one knows how and when any effects will manifest. There is lots of room and time for them to bring any possible colder conditions forward, alas they may not until certain when these will occur. 

Trouble is, time is not on our side now.  However, there is uncertainty and I agree there is time for something to crop us sooner than forecast.  However, if it continues to be pushed back it won't be any good!

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

More settled into March

Wednesday 15 February to – Sunday 19 February

Mild and unsettled until the weekend

Monday 20 February to – Sunday 26 March

Drier and chillier

Monday 27 February to – Sunday 12 March

Remaining dry. Potentially colder in March

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 20 Feb - Wednesday 1 Mar

Monday looks to be cloudy for most, with some brighter spells possible, these most likely to the east of high ground. Rain and drizzle across northern areas and western upslopes. Feeling fresh with moderate winds in the north, but light elsewhere and feeling mild. For the first half of the period, low pressure will dominate to the north and higher pressure to the south. This will lead to drier conditions in southern and eastern areas with some overnight mist and fog. More changeable, unsettled conditions with spells or rain and stronger winds at times are likely in the north. Towards the end of the period, there is a greater of high pressure dominating across the UK. Temperatures overall milder than average, but a continued risk of cold nights in places.

Thursday 2 Mar - Thursday 16 Mar

At the start of March, high pressure will likely dominate across the UK, with any more unsettled weather likely to be across the far north or northwest. Generally drier more settled conditions are expected, with occasional spells of unsettled weather possible at times, especially in the south. Cold nights are likely in places throughout the period. Temperatures will likely be around or slightly above average for the whole period, with perhaps colder conditions relative to average more likely later in the period. There remains a small but increasing probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

There remains a small but increasing probability of much colder weather developing as we move further into March.

And that's it in a nutshell. 

[Rain All Night]

49 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

More settled into March

Wednesday 15 February to – Sunday 19 February

Mild and unsettled until the weekend

Monday 20 February to – Sunday 26 March

Drier and chillier

Monday 27 February to – Sunday 12 March

Remaining dry. Potentially colder in March

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Looking at one particular excerpt from the BBC forecast:

"In the last update we mentioned the possibility of a change to colder conditions, with low pressure across the European mainland bringing chilly winds from the easterly quarter. This might occur around the middle of March, which one longer-range model indicates; another suggests that this arrangement develops later, in the second half of March."

@bluearmy Do you think the models they're referring to might be the EC46 and GloSea?

[Don]

4 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Looking at one particular excerpt from the BBC forecast:

"In the last update we mentioned the possibility of a change to colder conditions, with low pressure across the European mainland bringing chilly winds from the easterly quarter. This might occur around the middle of March, which one longer-range model indicates; another suggests that this arrangement develops later, in the second half of March."

@bluearmy Do you think the models they're referring to might be the EC46 and GloSea?

At this rate it might occur in March next year.... 

[damianslaw]

Increasing probability.. that's an upgrade for cold, and the SSW effects haven't downwelled yet, significant room for further upgrades if cold is what you are after.. 

[Don]

59 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Increasing probability.. that's an upgrade for cold, and the SSW effects haven't downwelled yet, significant room for further upgrades if cold is what you are after.. 

This mild and dry February is reminding me of 2008 when I believe there was also a SSW?  The month had a cold snap later on, which is a possibility next week, so I'm wondering if March may also be similar to 2008 with some colder weather, particularly during the second half?

Edited February 15, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

This mild and dry February is reminding me of 2008 when I believe there was also a SSW?  The month had a cold snap later on, which is a possibility next week, so I'm wondering if March may also be similar to 2008 with some colder weather, particularly during the second half?

Don't recall much cold weather late Feb 08, brief incursions of polar maritime air, the March was topsy turvy with some cold northerly flows, and the notable Easter snowfalls.. but quite atlantic driven. Not sure if there was a SSW.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Don't recall much cold weather late Feb 08, brief incursions of polar maritime air, the March was topsy turvy with some cold northerly flows, and the notable Easter snowfalls.. but quite atlantic driven. Not sure if there was a SSW.

Actually, I think it maybe it was early March rather than late February when there was a cold snap and like you say the start of a topsy turvy month!  I believe there was an SSW around mid-February, but don't hold me to it!

Edited February 15, 2023 by Don

[lassie23]

May Day Bank Holiday is looking cold