Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

The MO have to cover a lot of bases. They’ll be thinking what we’re thinking Kasim but they need to wait until they’ve got harder evidence. Virtually all human written LRFs for this winter are going for colder than average. Even the likes of Accuweather who generally and often correctly hit the climatology readout. Aside from the SPV and the warmer trends in the climate, virtually every other driver points towards a colder/cold winter. Big test coming up this seasonals / strong vortex vs analogs / signals/ human reasoning and intuition. 

Yep, Imo they only include high confidence outcomes in their outlooks. Which is why they're far from the best source of info at this stage.

Purely subjective but this next chance just has that vibe about it ❄

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Calmer from mid-December.

____________________

Saturday 11 December to – Sunday 19 December

Unsettled in the Northwest. Calmer elsewhere.

Early this weekend rain will move across from the west and will reach all parts of the country by Saturday afternoon, before clearing overnight. Sunday morning will see a dry start over most parts, but Northern Ireland, Scotland and perhaps Northern England will see increasing cloud, wind and rain through the day. It may get very windy over Northern Ireland and Scotland for a time. Temperatures will be on the mild side around 1-2C above average on Saturday and then 4-5C above average on Sunday.

The same pattern is expected with periods of rain affecting Northern Ireland, Scotland and perhaps Wales at least over the first half of the week. Conditions begin to improve from mid-week with any rain now restricted to Northwest Scotland. Next weekend is looking settled and dry for most of the UK and staying very mild.

Monday 20 December to – Sunday 26 December

Settled and dry at least until mid-week.

It should start the week settled and dry for everyone and this pattern should last until mid-week. Later in the week, a return to a wetter and windier pattern is possible for northern and eastern parts of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be near average most of the week. The risk this week is where high pressure is located. If it is stationed more to the east this would allow for a more mobile pattern of wetter and windier conditions, especially for the northern half of the country throughout the week.

Monday 27 December to – Sunday 9 January

A mainly settled pattern persists.

For the last week of the year, the high is favoured over West Europe into the Eastern Atlantic with low-pressure systems north of the British Isles. This would lead to a dry, calm pattern, especially over England and Wales. Early morning fog formation is very possible. Generally near seasonal temperatures are anticipated over this week, but maybe slightly below average over Wales and the western half of England.

The position of the high pressure is a little uncertain during these last two weeks with the models suggesting different solutions. Should the high become stationed further away from the country more unsettled conditions are likely.

Further ahead

Will the settled high-pressure pattern continue, or will we see a return to a more mobile series of weather systems affecting the county?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland

Not great at all for anyone if your priority is snow. I would take cold and frosty but given the wording of that we could well be unsettled alot of the time while England stays dry. Regarding the doubts about the positioning of the high it seems only to be if it will be right bang over the UK or to the east of it, they don't mention the possibility of it going north at all. There must be too much energy from the tpv, even if it is slightly disrupted, to allow it to happen. A rather pants update as someone put it earlier.

Edited by Bricriu
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
On 11/12/2021 at 12:03, Bricriu said:

Not great at all for anyone if your priority is snow. I would take cold and frosty but given the wording of that we could well be unsettled alot of the time while England stays dry. Regarding the doubts about the positioning of the high it seems only to be if it will be right bang over the UK or to the east of it, they don't mention the possibility of it going north at all. There must be too much energy from the tpv, even if it is slightly disrupted, to allow it to happen. A rather pants update as someone put it earlier.

Yep not great at all and a disaster up here for the Scottish Ski resorts , no skiing in December at all , wonder if that is a first  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
1 hour ago, johncam said:

Yep not great at all and a disaster up here for the Scottish Ski resorts , no skiing in December at all , wonder if that is a first  

Has happened a few times and at least once there has been no regular skiing before well into February iirc.

Hopefully this will not happen again this season!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

MetO text after Xmas strikes me as very vague, even for a section of a report famous for covering all bases. A return to more mobile at the end of the period reflects the expected return of the MJO to the IO, but the lack of any sense of specifics prior to end of the period suggests even the high res model they keep hidden beneath the counter is struggling to position the high. Starting to get the feeling that a New Year cold shot is growing in probability. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

MetO text after Xmas strikes me as very vague, even for a section of a report famous for covering all bases. A return to more mobile at the end of the period reflects the expected return of the MJO to the IO, but the lack of any sense of specifics prior to end of the period suggests even the high res model they keep hidden beneath the counter is struggling to position the high. Starting to get the feeling that a New Year cold shot is growing in probability. 

Yet, arguably, their forecasts are almost always somewhat more 'accurate' (be they 'vague' or not) than most of ours? I guess the MetO doesn't do wishful-thinking?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yet, arguably, their forecasts are almost always somewhat more 'accurate' (be they 'vague' or not) than most of ours? I guess the MetO doesn't do wishful-thinking?

Easy to be accurate when being vague and imprecise Ed. The Met doesn’t do wishful thinking but they also don’t engage with anything that puts their reputation at risk. Understandable…but in so doing they also remove the opportunity to be truly class leading by making forecasts at range. Anyway….the interpretation of the post 26 Dec text remains. It is unusually vague, even for them. Says much about uncertainty at the moment.

Edited by Catacol
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
20 hours ago, johncam said:

Yep not great at all and a disaster up here for the Scottish Ski resorts , no skiing in December at all , wonder if that is a first  

Lecht and Glenshee both have some runs open today, as well as yesterday, Glencoe too I think. Certainly skiers on the Lecht webcams that I''ve just checked. OK so it's limited runs and nothing spectacular, and it'll likely all disappear this week unfortunately, but there will have been skiing in Scotland this Dec already, and who know what the last third of Dec will bring.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
56 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Easy to be accurate when being vague and imprecise Ed. The Met doesn’t do wishful thinking but they also don’t engage with anything that puts their reputation at risk. Understandable…but in so doing they also remove the opportunity to be truly class leading by making forecasts at range. Anyway….the interpretation of the post 26 Dec text remains. It is unusually vague, even for them. Says much about uncertainty at the moment.

It's also easy to guess: guess right, and you're in the history books; guess wrong, and no-one will ever remember?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Sounds like typical English Xmas winter weather, nowt to write home about, just plain old plain. As noted the Met Office cover their risk, so seldom go outside of the regular, with hundred of words eluding to options, which in the society today where they could easily face litigation, covers them well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Saturday 18 Dec - Monday 27 Dec

Through this period, high pressure, already across southern areas, is expected to build further north, pushing the remaining wind and rain away. Here any rain will be light, giving a much drier second half to December for all and winds expected to be predominantly calm. Although rather cloudy at first, cloud amounts should reduce through the period, especially in the south and southeast. Temperatures near average to start, and locally mild in the north, although they will tend to become colder in time for Christmas, especially in southern areas. As a result, the risk of frost and fog increases, the fog slow to clear through the mornings, and perhaps lasting all day in some places.

Tuesday 28 Dec - Tuesday 11 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with an increasing risk of frost and fog for Christmas and New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Edited by Summer Sun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

It's finally updated now.

Wednesday 29 Dec - Wednesday 12 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with overnight frost and fog likely in places as we head towards the New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

 

Ignoring the ec46 totally then, very strange!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's finally updated now.

Wednesday 29 Dec - Wednesday 12 Jan

It is likely to remain settled for the final week of 2021, with overnight frost and fog likely in places as we head towards the New Year. Any unsettled spells are most likely for the northwest, with occasional stronger winds, and some showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are expected to be around average, but milder in the north, and colder in the south at times, where frost is most likely. Heading deeper into January there is expected to be a gradual shift towards more changeable conditions, especially in the northwest, and turning milder again too.

 

Ignoring the ec46 totally then, very strange!

They are probably not confident enough yet to change the outlook?  If Thursday's EC46 update is similar to yesterday's, I imagine their forecast will change?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorking
  • Location: Dorking

Some of you may want to check out the recently updated Met-office long range forecast ?️

At the start of this period it will be settled and predominantly dry with large amounts of cloud, though cloud may well be thick enough for the odd spot of drizzle at times. In general, cloud amounts will tend to reduce with time, with a corresponding increase in the risk of overnight fog and frost, which may be slow to clear by day in some areas. Towards the middle of the period, there is an increasing chance of more unsettled and windier weather affecting the UK, with rain, and perhaps snow, possible for some places. Temperatures will generally be near to below normal, perhaps rather cold in the south, feeling chilly where any fog persists, and locally mild in the north and northwest.

Edited by bumpydogz
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Fog, Cold, Snow, Extreme weather
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands

Sorry if in wrong thread but here is the 10 day trend from the met office !

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Hopefully this is deemed MOD worthy for discussion. Very much a novice question. Feel free to move if wrong thread. 

Having just seen the 10 day Meto forecast and coming on here I’m scratching my head at the difference in thoughts.

Are there different models that they view compared to here on NW?

They seemed quite confident the trend for low pressure/non cold conditions over the Uk from around Dec 23 but here it seems a different analysis. 

Would be interested to hear the rationale as to the opposing view , other than because a 10 day chart shows differently. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Hopefully this is deemed MOD worthy for discussion. Very much a novice question. Feel free to move if wrong thread. 

Having just seen the 10 day Meto forecast and coming on here I’m scratching my head at the difference in thoughts.

Are there different models that they view compared to here on NW?

They seemed quite confident the trend for low pressure/non cold conditions over the Uk from around Dec 23 but here it seems a different analysis. 

Would be interested to hear the rationale as to the opposing view , other than because a 10 day chart shows differently. 

The 10 day Met office forecast suggested  just over 50% chance of low pressure/Atlantic influence which is very similar to the output we have seen tonight.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
6 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The 10 day Met office forecast suggested  just over 50% chance of low pressure/Atlantic influence which is very similar to the output we have seen tonight.

Thanks for the reply. 

What surprised me though is that in the past if it’s 50/50 they’ve split out the two options and advised either might happen. Today they seemed more bullish that although percentage wise it was just over 50%, the trend seemed more likely than not. 

Guess we’ll see it play out over the next few days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
12 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Thanks for the reply. 

What surprised me though is that in the past if it’s 50/50 they’ve split out the two options and advised either might happen. Today they seemed more bullish that although percentage wise it was just over 50%, the trend seemed more likely than not. 

Guess we’ll see it play out over the next few days. 

Watching the 10day outlook the change of colour in the pressure model outlook, was most definitely towards low pressure and there we strong hints of rain around the Christmas period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Very poorly worded average ir below average temps but rather cold in the south and milder in the north and north west how can this be if they expecting a more Atlantic influence from the SW? Also they seem to never update the middle bit well it goes onto say end Dec settled yet between 25th and 30th unsettled. Also still mentions snow I'm bamboozled.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

BBC tv forecast this morning showed the high building to the NW allowing a Northerly flow down the East side of the UK. Summary was "getting cooler over the weekend and into Christmas week colder still".

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

This is the latest Met O video 10 day forecast, little mention of what most are hoping for, but of course it could change!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...