Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 30 Dec - Saturday 8 Jan

To begin the period, rain will move east across the UK. Rain potentially heavy and persistent in places, especially western hills. Possibly drier and brighter in the far north. Temperatures mild for most, with the chance of some coastal gales affecting the west. Unsettled conditions likely to continue for most, but the chance for some drier and brighter spells in the south east at times. Heading into January, Atlantic weather systems likely to move in from the west, bringing further unsettled conditions and potentially heavy rain for some. Between these systems, drier and brighter periods likely but still a chance of showers. Unsettled weather to continue to end the period, with showers or longer spells of rain likely.

Sunday 9 Jan - Sunday 23 Jan

There is the potential for a short, settled spell to begin the period, before more changeable, milder condition return later in the month. Feeling colder with a risk of fog during any settled spells. Still the chance for some widely milder conditions too, bringing the risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and generally mild

____________________

Saturday 25 December to – Sunday 2 January

Changeable with some better days. Mild

This weekend, an Atlantic low pressure west of Scotland will drive a series of fronts over the country. On Boxing Day, the fronts begin to clear the country as a transitory ridge moves across. Christmas Day starts with rain moving in from the southwest to affect Northern Ireland, Wales, and England. The rain will persist through to the evening. Scotland should remain dry and the southwest will dry later in the day. Through Sunday, any rain will become more intermittent as its moves over Scotland, leaving drier conditions further south. Temperatures of 2-4C above average are expected over the weekend.

Next week, high pressure is favoured over Iberia with the Atlantic storm track affecting the UK. The trend early next week will be changeable as a series of fronts move across the country. Later in the week, things remain active as further lows affect the country. Tuesday and Thursday are looking particularly wet for all parts of the country. There will be some breaks in the rain as transitory ridges move across. Right now, these better drier days are Monday and Friday. Temperatures around 1-2C above average but then rising 4-5C above normal mid-week. A further band of rain could move across the country on New Year's Day but at the moment it appears it could mainly impact Scotland. Staring fair on Sunday but another potential band of rain approved from the west in the evening. Temperatures next weekend are around 4-5C above average.

Monday 3 January to – Sunday 9 January

Mild with some wet and windy spells

For the first week of January, the British Isles should remain under the track of the Atlantic Storms, with the main high pressure over the Azores to Iberia. Whilst this will bring some periods of rain, there will be some breaks between the fronts. It should stay on the mild side. The timing of the weather systems this far ahead is going to be difficult to pin down. Right now, the first half of the week is looking particularly wet and windy. The worst of the conditions are likely over the northern half of the country with the best chance of some breaks in the rain over England and Wales.

Further bands of rain are likely over the second half of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures start the week around 3-4C above average and end the week around 1-2C above average. If the high pressure is located more towards Scandinavia during this week this would bring a cooler, drier pattern of weather across the country as the Atlantic storm track is forced to take a different route. If the high moves over the British Isles again we would see a very different forecast. We estimate this as a 30% risk.

Monday 10 January to – Sunday 23 January

A seasonal pattern. Drier in the south.

Into the second week of January, ¬ confidence is getting low with models performing poorly regarding the pressure and temperature pattern. We favour high pressure over the Azores and lower pressure nearer Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. This would bring a seasonal pattern with near-average temperatures and no weather extremes. Scotland would see the most of any rain or wind.

The pattern remains uncertain for the last week of the forecast. We favour high pressure west of Iberia, with lower pressure near Iceland and over Scandinavia. This would keep the near seasonal pattern. Scotland and Northern Ireland may be a little wetter and windier while the southern half of the country could be under a dry regime for time.

Should the high become stationed elsewhere, say over Scandinavia, cooler conditions are likely. The latest forecast for the Polar Vortex confirms our belief that no cold spell is in sight yet. Should this change, we should get plenty of warning as a winter disruption in the Polar Vortex often takes a few weeks to bring in a colder spell of weather over Europe.

Further ahead

Will there be any sign of a colder winter as we head into late January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 31 Dec - Sunday 9 Jan

Unsettled weather is likely to dominate most of this period with Atlantic weather systems continuing to arrive from the west. To begin, largely fine with brighter spells likely for some once rain clears eastward. Further rain arriving into the west and southwest later. Heading into January, further showers or longer spells of rain from the west are possible, perhaps bringing heavy rain to western hills. Drier, brighter and colder spells may develop between the rain at times, with spells of showers still possible. Driest conditions mainly confined in the southeast. Through this period, it will be rather windy with possible coastal gales in the west. Temperatures likely mild or very mild. A possible brief settled spell may develop towards the very end of the period.

Monday 10 Jan - Monday 24 Jan

There is the potential for a short, settled spell in the beginning of the period, before more changeable, milder condition return later in the month. Feeling colder with a risk of short-lived fog during any settled spells. Still the chance for some widely milder conditions too, bringing the risk of heavy rain and strong winds at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Don]

On 25/12/2021 at 21:52, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and generally mild

Another ghastly outlook for cold weather seekers! 

[Snowing41]

Looking like another wet mild spell. Winters in the UK are miserable these days. In Leeds it's as if we haven't seen sun for a month.

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 1 Jan - Monday 10 Jan

On Saturday, New Year's Day, rain is likely to move east and northeast across the UK, followed by showers. The wettest weather further north and west, with the southeast remaining drier. Strong winds are expected in the west, and it will continue to be very mild. Thereafter, the unsettled weather will continue to dominate, with Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west, interspersed with showery and brighter spells. The wettest areas are expected to be western hills, with the southeast remaining driest. It will also continue to be windy, with gales possible along western coasts. Temperatures likely mild or very mild at first, but returning closer to average into the new year. There is the chance of a brief settled spell towards the end of the period.

Tuesday 11 Jan - Tuesday 25 Jan

There is the potential for a short-lived settled spell to start this period, which would mean cooler and drier weather but also an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Later in the month, milder but more unsettled weather is expected to return, with the associated hazards of strong winds and heavy rain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 2 Jan - Tuesday 11 Jan

A corridor of thicker cloud and rain likely moving northeastwards on Sunday, remaining mild to the southeast of this, but temperatures returning close to normal to its west. As the cloud and rain clear, northwesterly winds are likely to develop early in the following week. These winds will be strong at times, likely bring showers, and these showers will likely become wintry for at least a short time across the far north. However, moving beyond the midweek period changeable conditions with westerly winds are likely to spread across the UK. Spells of rain will be accompanied by milder conditions, these will likely be interspersed with showers and nearer average temperatures. During this time the most unsettled conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, and most settled towards the southeast.

Wednesday 12 Jan - Wednesday 26 Jan

Unsettled conditions are most likely through much of the period with spells of rain interspersed with drier but still showery interludes. Strong winds likely at times. Early in this period there is a chance of a spell of cold weather bringing a greater chance of snow particularly to northern regions. However, near or above average temperatures are the most likely outcomes. Through the end of the period there is a greater chance of some more settled spells developing, particularly across the S. This would increase the incidence of overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Whilst the met office outlook has flipped around significantly over past week ir so and as such comes with probably more room for error than usual.. the latest doesn't suggest predominantly very mild weather at least. It to me suggests more in the way of polar airstreams at times especially in the north with the azores high a bit further west allowing for NW incursions before it possibly toppled into the UK later in January giving generally colder weather. All very plausible. At least it mentions snow and wintry weather in what is the king winter month January as it should be!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 4 Jan - Thursday 13 Jan

Temperatures are expected to fall to around or slightly below average early next week with overnight frost becoming more widespread for a time. Some wintry showers with snow to fairly low levels is possible in the north with cloud and rain clearing to drier and brighter conditions further south. This regime is likely to be short-lived though as a return to a milder, unsettled pattern with Atlantic weather systems moving across the country is expected through the second half of next week onwards. This will likely bring spells of rain, occasional snow to hills in the north, accompanied by strong winds at times. Overall, temperatures are expected to be above average, although some temporary colder periods are likely.

Friday 14 Jan - Friday 28 Jan

Through the second half of January, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures are overall expected to remain slightly above average as a result of mild spells and shorter-lived colder periods. These shorter-lived colder periods may still allow for some snow but this will typically fall over hills in the north. Later in the month, there is a tentative sign of more settled spells developing, particularly across the south which would increase the chance of overnight frost and fog here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Met office going for a very typical January with the atlantic ruling the roost, ridge trough pattern, alternating polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The north at times should see some snow mostly on higher ground but chance of lower levels at times. 

 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Met office going for a very typical January with the atlantic ruling the roost, ridge trough pattern, alternating polar maritime and tropical maritime air masses. The north at times should see some snow mostly on higher ground but chance of lower levels at times. 

 

Little cheer for the south with that outlook!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Little cheer for the south with that outlook!

I'm just reading between the lines but these outlooks flip around in short timescales so don't be surprised for a change in a few days.. reference to possible snow in northern parts dropped today but wont be surprised to see it back come early next week. Im sensing the models and met will have another 'off time'  of it over New Year and be caught out by sudden short term developments.

[Norrance]

Some subtle changes in the wording for the earlier period indicating a change to a colder outlook perhaps. Wonder if the longer term outlook will also change soon?

UK long range weather forecast

Thursday 6 Jan - Saturday 15 Jan

An unsettled start to this period, as cloud and rain spreads from the west, along with perhaps a brief spell of snow particularly in northern areas. Cloud and rain are likely to clear, leading to drier and brighter conditions at times further south and east. Northern areas turning brighter in addition to some blustery showers, occasionally wintry at times to low levels. Generally windy for all with coastal gales, and the strongest winds accompanying the rain to the north and west. Overall, temperatures are expected to be near to average, although some temporary colder periods are likely, particularly in any wind. Through the later part of this period, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather, however interspersed by drier, brighter periods.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sat 1 Jan 2022

Sunday 16 Jan - Sunday 30 Jan

Through the rest of January, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly above average due to a mixture of mild spells and shorter-lived colder periods. These shorter-lived colder periods may still allow for some snow, but this will typically fall over hills in the north. Towards the end of this period, there is a tentative sign of more settled spells developing, particularly across the south which would increase the chance of overnight frost and fog here.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 1 Jan 2022

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[Don]

Just now, Norrance said:

Some subtle changes in the wording for the earlier period indicating a change to a colder outlook perhaps. Wonder if the longer term outlook will also change soon?

Yes, they have moved away from above average overall to close to average.  A step in the right direction at least. 

[Dorsetbred]

Meanwhile today it looks this way:

UK long range weather forecast

Friday 7 Jan - Sunday 16 Jan

Unsettled conditions are set to dominate this period, with sunshine and showers, possibly falling as hail or snow away from coasts initially. Windy for all, the strongest in the west, with gales or locally severe gales, and lighter winds expected elsewhere. Feeling rather cold at the start of the period. Through the later part of this period, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather, however these are interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Likely to be wettest in the west and northwest, with the driest conditions in the east and southeast. Overall, temperatures are expected to be near to average, although some temporary colder periods are also likely.

Monday 17 Jan - Monday 31 Jan

Through the rest of January, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures are likely to remain close to or slightly above average due to a mixture of mild spells and shorter-lived colder periods. These shorter-lived colder periods may still allow for some snow, but this will typically fall over hills in the north. Towards the end of this period, there is a tentative sign of more settled spells developing, particularly across the south which would increase the chance of overnight frost and fog here.

[Climate Man]

I received some grief in the model output thread earlier but backed off as it was the wrong thread.  I suggested that professional forecasters get it wrong and that you should not always defer to them and on occasion NW members may be more accurate. One occasion....20 years ago I was living in Warwickshire and working in Hereford.  I visited Farnborough Airshow and was excited to visit the METO stand and talk about the forecast output that they had.  I suggested that in two days there would be some exceptional rain in the Welsh Borders based on their data. They laughed at me.  Two days later I failed to get to work due to floods.  Just an example. Yes they have better data, yes they have more training (not always more experience) but are far from perfect. Since they do not tend to give detailed forecasts beyond a week it is not possible to compare with NW member ideas. They defer to climatology.  Just don't ever put all your eggs in a basket just because it's their job. Amateur input has its place. 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 9 Jan - Tuesday 18 Jan

Windy, unsettled weather continuing at the start of the period, with spells of rain crossing the country. Generally mild in the south, whilst temperatures nearer normal further north. High pressure is expected to build in the south near the end of next week, with lighter winds and more settled conditions and temperatures trending nearer to average, and a risk of some overnight frosts. The north meanwhile is more likely to continue to see spells of cloud and rain at times, with some stronger winds. Confidence decreases by the end of the period, but a likely return to generally more unsettled conditions across the UK, with western and northwestern parts expected to continue to see the wettest and windiest weather. Temperatures becoming near or slightly above average.

Wednesday 19 Jan - Wednesday 2 Feb

Conditions expected to remain broadly unsettled and changeable through this period with occasional spells of wet and windy weather moving across from the Atlantic. Western and northwestern parts likely to see the wettest and windiest conditions overall whilst eastern and southeastern parts probably seeing the most of any drier spells. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall throughout but there remains a possibility of short-lived colder spells. Colder spells likely to bring a risk of snow at times, though mostly over high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Whilst these chop and change on daily basis, prospect of something colder or at least average which in late Jan is quite cold has increased based on Met Office update. Mention of snow in the north.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 10 Jan - Wednesday 19 Jan

An unsettled start to the period, generally windy, with outbreaks of rain for most. The best chance of drier conditions in the south and east, with sunshine and showers likely for the north and west. Generally mild but turning colder from the north. High pressure is expected to build in the south through next week, bringing settled conditions and lighter winds. Temperatures trending near average to mild, although still a risk of some overnight frosts. The north likely to continue to see spells of cloud and rain, with some stronger winds. Confidence decreases through the period, but a likely return to generally more unsettled conditions across the UK, with western and northwestern parts expected to continue to see the wettest and windiest weather. Temperatures likely to remain around average.

Thursday 20 Jan - Thursday 3 Feb

Conditions expected to remain broadly unsettled and changeable through this period with occasional spells of wet and windy weather moving across from the Atlantic. Western and northwestern parts likely to see the wettest and windiest conditions overall whilst eastern and southeastern parts probably seeing the most of any drier spells. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall throughout but there remains a possibility of short-lived colder spells. Colder spells likely to bring a risk of snow at times, though mostly over high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 11 Jan - Thursday 20 Jan

Cloudy with some light rain or drizzle and light winds in the south on Tuesday, but clearer conditions and sunny spells spreading to most, if not all, areas through the day. From Wednesday, high pressure is expected to build in the south, bringing settled conditions and mostly light winds. Temperatures trending near average to mild, although there is still a risk of some overnight frost and fog. The north is likely to continue to see spells of cloud and rain, with some stronger winds. Confidence decreases through the period, but a return to generally more unsettled conditions across the UK is likely later on, with western and northwestern parts expected to continue to see the wettest and windiest weather. Temperatures likely to remain around average.

Friday 21 Jan - Friday 4 Feb

Conditions expected to remain broadly unsettled and changeable through this period with occasional spells of wet and windy weather moving across from the Atlantic. Western and northwestern parts likely to see the wettest and windiest conditions overall whilst eastern and southeastern parts probably seeing the most of any drier spells. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall throughout but there remains a possibility of short-lived colder spells. Colder spells likely to bring a risk of snow at times, though mostly over high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled, mostly mild. No sustained cold expected

____________________

Wednesday 5 January to – Sunday 9 January

Changeable with some cooler days

Wednesday starts fair except in eastern coastal areas where some isolated showers are possible. A band of rain will move over Northern Ireland and Scotland from early on Thursday, before moving across all parts through the day. Winds should pick up and some showers may be wintry over northern Britain. Showers should slowly clear before more rain moves over Northern Ireland and the Western Isles later Friday.

Temperatures will be 1-2C below average. On Saturday a further band of rain will move in from the west to affect most areas through the day as it becomes breezy. Sunday will bring more of the same although it may stay dry in south east Britain. Temperatures over the weekend should be around 1-2C above average for the time of year.

Monday 10 January to – Sunday 16 January

More settled by mid-week but wetter in the north.

By mid-week, high pressure could shift further to the north and may centre itself near the Bay of Biscay and Western Europe, bringing a mild pattern with drier weather over the south of the UK. Monday will see wetter weather over Northern Ireland and Scotland and then possibly Northern England later in the day, with other areas remaining dry and mild. All regions apart from Scotland become drier through Tuesday. Conditions remain settled into Wednesday, but western Scotland may still see some light rain at times.

This could remain the pattern into the following weekend, with temperatures expected to be around 2-3C above average overall. However, if the high pressure fails to build across Europe, it would allow the Atlantic storm track to move further south across Northwest Europe bringing wetter and windier conditions. We estimate this possibility at 35%.

Monday 17 January to – Sunday 30 January

Wind & rain at times. No sustained cold periods

Into the third week of January, ¬ confidence starts to get lower with the weather models performing poorly so far. Low pressure is favoured from Northwest to Eastern Europe with high-pressure west of Iberia. This would bring most of us a wet and windy pattern with near seasonal temperatures.

Uncertainty persists in to the last week of the forecast. However, high pressure is favoured over the Central North Atlantic extending to Iberia with low pressure over Northwest Europe and Scandinavia. This would maintain average temperatures over Northern Ireland and Scotland and keep it mild for England and Wales. This pattern would bring more wind and rain.

Should the high become stationed over Western Europe we could see a drier, less windy pattern. We currently estimate this as a 40% chance. The Polar vortex remains strong, which maintains the milder winter conditions and so it is hard to see any sustained cold over the next few weeks.

Further ahead

The next update will look ahead into the first week of February. A sustained cold spell is still possible in late winter so we will see if we get any indication of a change in the pattern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[joggs]

Very underwhelming. But they didn't call the end of November cold spell.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

• Driest in the south
• Rain at times in the north
• Temperatures close to average

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/59897540

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 12 Jan - Friday 21 Jan

High pressure is expected across southern and central parts of the UK at the start of this period, bringing settled conditions and light winds, though it's likely to be rather cloudy in some areas. Temperatures will be generally around average, but there is a risk of some colder nights with local frost and fog. Spells of rain, drizzle and stronger winds are likely further north, with temperatures near to or slightly above average here. Confidence decreases through the period, but a return to generally more unsettled conditions across the UK is likely later on, with western and northwestern parts expected to continue to see the wettest and windiest weather. Temperatures likely to remain around average.

Saturday 22 Jan - Saturday 5 Feb

Conditions expected to remain broadly unsettled and changeable through this period with occasional spells of cold, wet and windy weather moving across from the Atlantic. Western and northwestern parts likely to see the wettest and windiest conditions overall whilst eastern and southeastern parts probably seeing the most of any drier spells. Temperatures likely to be slightly above average overall throughout, but there remains a possibility of short-lived colder spells. Colder spells likely to bring a risk of snow at times, though mostly over high ground in the north. Possibility that stronger systems will bring gales to western and northwestern areas throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Don]

Continues to be little sign for any sustained cold with these updates.  As always, subject to change though.