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Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022


Message added by Paul,

Alternate model discussion thread guidelines:

  • Please don't post one liners about a model run/partial model run
  • Please post charts (or data from them) to back up your point of view
  • Please remember this isn't a hunt for cold thread so the focus may solely be on the model output rather than on whether there's cold weather expected
  • Posts can cover the longer or shorter range on the models - but please make it clear what time frame and locations you're referring to

These are in addition to the usual guidelines on the forum, which can be summarised as:

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, cold snowy Winters
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire

Brilliant!! I hope we get some good, educated short term (more chance of being accurate) forecasting here. Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Good idea, hope it catches on DRL.

I'll post in here a bit later as bit busy just now.

just a comment that the closes, so far, to where the very deep low may track is to look at the Met O Fax charts?

this link shows their expected track

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Potential transient/hill snow event on Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see the front's progression slow and snow risk increase a little as we near the time.

75_779UKvrp0.GIF

78_779UKodd9.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Thanks for this thread. I'm sure as and when cold snaps/spells are approaching it will come into its own.

I try to post in here as well as still using the other thread for longer terms thoughts.

looks like a fairly cool showery regime for the next couple of days. Maybe a couple of transient wintry surprises as we are close to marginality with uppers and ground temps at times. 

 

All eyes have been on the atlantic storm for next Wednesday - still lots of uncertainty at 108hr as to how strong it will be and its track. Latest feeling is that the mainland Europe may get the worst of the conditions. 

Likely to have a big effect on how conditions will develop after its gone, so one to keep an eye on for both short and longer term prospects.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL

From my very basic understanding early next week looks potentially interesting, it will be a good watch how the models roll this out over the weekend,

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I still think that the UK Met track, either their model or Fax show the most likely positions for the deep low after this weekend. No GFS this morning and ECMWF has it just nw of the Channel Isles at the same time UK Met have it off eastern Scotland so plenty of difference in just those two models. Like I said I favour UK Met having looked at  300 mb predicted charts. But of course time will tell.

Fortunately it appears to have done most of its deepening before reaching the UK. It may still get named though as everyone is going to be a bit wary after the first named storm with its impacts still being felt for several thousand folk and heaven knows the cost of replacing power lines etc let alone the human cost with 3 deaths.

I tried to post Alex Deakin's post on Facebook but Net Wx blocked it so unable show how he illustrated the degree of uncertainty.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I tried to post Alex Deakin's post on Facebook but Net Wx blocked it so unable show how he illustrated the degree of uncertainty.

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Just now, johnholmes said:

 

Tried the you tube version and this is ok, worth watching

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Tried the you tube version and this is ok, worth watching

Very good video forecast - explaining the situation very well. Looks like UKMO have this a bit further north than some of the other models, although as Alex Deakin notes, a fair degree of uncertainty at this point. Does look like the first Atlantic 'bomb' of the season however and sure to have some impacts, most likely to ROI and western parts of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Models seem to be converging around the idea that the storm winds up, gets close to British Isles, then starts to fill and sink south.

Very windy in the west, but I think heavy rain might be the headline maker if frontal systems become slow moving.

Interesting that when modelled in FI - a lot of the output had this storm barrelling through and disrupting the block to the east - now it looks like the theme is that low pressure systems will struggle to get east of the meridian. 

This might allow some influence in our weather from an easterly direction further down the line, however just as likely is that the UK gets stuck in the middle of a Mexican standoff between the Atlantic and the block, with southerlies over the country.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

The GFS does seem to be kinda on its own with how far South it’s dropping the stormy Low compared to other models (the GFS 06Z run having it going directly over the channel around 90 hours)

5F592210-B960-4C15-9878-839A5A39E307.thumb.png.0a36c96665c75731947d986508f2558b.png

Is probably being a little over optimistic (even though very plausible), considering what the other models show. Does, however, certainly highlight that even 2 days away, the definite track and intensity of this devious cyclone is not fully resolved. 

Even though it would make for some compelling weather for those who like active weather events like that (which I appreciate), on a personal note, am hoping it won’t turn out too wild, despite the strongest of the winds generally likely towards Western UK parts. It’s just when you have to go out or travel in that sort of weather, it’s not so fun at all to be honest

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
3 hours ago, knocker said:

The 06 ecm

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-snow_6hr-8889200.thumb.png.5efb8d060be042747ec4cac028635ebf.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-snow_6hr-8910800.thumb.png.db4113d2d5c04e2732d7f149ca154080.png

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-8874800.thumb.png.9ab8558c20d95c4bf6e6aedabd84722b.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-8892800.thumb.png.e0a7f943cf1c23c1466b5c15b3d8352c.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-8921600.thumb.png.ca660713e64b144bc91e64fca9ec52f8.png

It's almost as though the low stalls and just creeps across the Uk, taking it's time to have a look at what its doing..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
40 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

It's almost as though the low stalls and just creeps across the Uk, taking it's time to have a look at what its doing..

More or less what it does. The rapid cyclogenesis takes place prior to it arriving over Ireland, although there are likely some extremely strong and dangerous winds there for a time and also very windy over parts of the UK mainland. But then it fills quite rapidly as it drifts east

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
58 minutes ago, knocker said:

More or less what it does. The rapid cyclogenesis takes place prior to it arriving over Ireland, although there are likely some extremely strong and dangerous winds there for a time and also very windy over parts of the UK mainland. But then it fills quite rapidly as it drifts east

Hi Knocker, loving your posts and just have a question...what is meant by 'fills'? I've seen a few references to that happening but not sure what it means. TIA.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
33 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Hi Knocker, loving your posts and just have a question...what is meant by 'fills'? I've seen a few references to that happening but not sure what it means. TIA.

Hi Mizzle. in the 24 hours midday Monday > midday Tuesday the low deepens rapidly to be 957mb just went of Ireland. This is about as low  as it gets

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8878400.thumb.png.a8efce62d070a3a4d1dd15837e7f9433.png

And over the next 24 hours it drifts east and the central pressure rises to 975mb, And it will continuing 'filling' until it loses it's identity late Thursday

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8964800.thumb.png.316f2bef862a53f4f565a5853a910ba4.png

Edited by knocker
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