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Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A polar view of the movement of cold air from the gefs days 1-10.

avYL0kor36.thumb.gif.49f0508c1a4da94674929f51bbc362a1.gif

shows the feed of cold ongoing across the pole from Siberia and draining well south into the North American continent.

Deep Winter cold for them with one East coast storm already on the way and more to come next week as the cold surges again into the north west and heads south and east.

This all helps to fire up the Atlantic jet towards the Uk as the cold spills into the warmer Atlantic spawning further low pressure systems.The UK receiving transitory spells of polar air from this setup as the lows pass across.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

 

Pretty good agreement  between the gefs/eps days 6-10 mean 500 pattern.

Day 6 gefs shows a pretty strong and flat jet stream.

1769269273_eps-fast_z500aMean_nhem_6(1).thumb.png.e5500d20d6fefbe97fa8542f33075085.pnggfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.86d6ac21d88cb499b773a3928f8a07d3.pnggfs-ens_uv250_nhem_25.thumb.png.2eb4527cd747197b1c1c647cf6740751.png

Unsurprisingly we are looking at a continuing broad westerly pattern across the Atlantic into Europe and Scandinavia.This driven by low heights over E.Canada stretching eastwards across Greenland into N.Scandinavia.

Biscay heights to the south extending into W.Europe.

Tending to be more unsettled further north in the Uk with any precipitation weakening as it comes south,quite windy a times with again the north being prone to gales as lows pass by.

gfs-ens_apcpna_eu_4.thumb.png.1d84d731a0eaee2e164c985a092957f7.pngeps-fast_T850aMean_eu_6.thumb.png.0802316f1a85905cadccf9e770b68354.png

Still looking quite dry for much of the uk away from the far north up to day 10 and much of the country seeing mean temperatures above average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A look at some of ECM overnight output covering the UK/European view.

The ecm operational run for Sunday seems typical of much of the next 8 days or so

overview_20220203_00_072.thumb.jpg.55844ee5b28986d746f9d64e204ad52c.jpg

fronts coming further south at times as the high recedes to the south west somewhat.The north of the uk often in colder polar air as the mean jet tracks further south towards the uk.

This pattern is reflected in the 5 days means eps 500/850s

1043584966_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.5afc277ce416d832bc6ea53dcca99d93.png1552918313_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_6(1).thumb.png.582045d4a665fb2d8d37a149e9a5f7d6.png

1985771936_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.04431dd0ea7918f7c62f8bfa542f4e0b.png1323491193_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_6(2).thumb.png.16319e98e11e68ea6b75768888515062.png

Signs by day 10 that the influence of the high extends further north.This scenario has 100% support in the one ecm cluster at day 10.

gh500_20220203_00_240.thumb.jpg.d41fcf107c95b8f5463c53081c51fa6d.jpgec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2022020300_240.thumb.png.2e6202c6349f9de65c89169c8cd90e3d.png

bringing drier,settled and milder conditions more widely to the UK and indeed w.Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

A look at some of ECM overnight output covering the UK/European view.

The ecm operational run for Sunday seems typical of much of the next 8 days or so

overview_20220203_00_072.thumb.jpg.55844ee5b28986d746f9d64e204ad52c.jpg

fronts coming further south at times as the high recedes to the south west somewhat.The north of the uk often in colder polar air as the mean jet tracks further south towards the uk.

This pattern is reflected in the 5 days means eps 500/850s

1043584966_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.5afc277ce416d832bc6ea53dcca99d93.png1552918313_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_6(1).thumb.png.582045d4a665fb2d8d37a149e9a5f7d6.png

1985771936_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.04431dd0ea7918f7c62f8bfa542f4e0b.png1323491193_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_6(2).thumb.png.16319e98e11e68ea6b75768888515062.png

Signs by day 10 that the influence of the high extends further north.This scenario has 100% support in the one ecm cluster at day 10.

gh500_20220203_00_240.thumb.jpg.d41fcf107c95b8f5463c53081c51fa6d.jpgec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2022020300_240.thumb.png.2e6202c6349f9de65c89169c8cd90e3d.png

bringing drier,settled and milder conditions more widely to the UK and indeed w.Europe.

 

Thanks phil, a good view of what seems the best bet for 6-10 days, maybe 14, and they also fit in with the 500 mb anomaly charts I use, more especially NOAA. see below

 

I suppose at some point deep cold is going to affect more or less the whole UK but there is no signal in the nearer frames for that. I hate cold Marches.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
39 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

A look at some of ECM overnight output covering the UK/European view.

The ecm operational run for Sunday seems typical of much of the next 8 days or so

overview_20220203_00_072.thumb.jpg.55844ee5b28986d746f9d64e204ad52c.jpg

fronts coming further south at times as the high recedes to the south west somewhat.The north of the uk often in colder polar air as the mean jet tracks further south towards the uk.

This pattern is reflected in the 5 days means eps 500/850s

1043584966_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.5afc277ce416d832bc6ea53dcca99d93.png1552918313_eps-fast_z500aMean_eu_6(1).thumb.png.582045d4a665fb2d8d37a149e9a5f7d6.png

1985771936_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_1(1).thumb.png.04431dd0ea7918f7c62f8bfa542f4e0b.png1323491193_eps-fast_T850aMean_eu_6(2).thumb.png.16319e98e11e68ea6b75768888515062.png

Signs by day 10 that the influence of the high extends further north.This scenario has 100% support in the one ecm cluster at day 10.

gh500_20220203_00_240.thumb.jpg.d41fcf107c95b8f5463c53081c51fa6d.jpgec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2022020300_240.thumb.png.2e6202c6349f9de65c89169c8cd90e3d.png

bringing drier,settled and milder conditions more widely to the UK and indeed w.Europe.

 

The trend may well be for the polar air to filter further south.. we've seen a subtle change to it doing so in immediate timeframe.. the azores high could well fail to build back north as suggested.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A look at some UKMO and GFS outputs showing that there's plenty of mobility in the Atlantic in the coming week with a series of lows heading across as shown on some of the  fax's.

fax48s.thumb.gif.e3ef89b4ce07ac1b7b867e8e290b5892.giffax72s.thumb.gif.d13f79d85dd483f972b0bc0d8b41620f.gif

These features running east at around 60n and into Scandinavia.Some cold air sweeping in to the uk behind the cold fronts but most of the snow/rain falling over Scotland.The higher pressure further south never far away weakening the frontal systems as they reach southern areas.

This highlighted by the precipitation projections 

prec4.thumb.png.8792fbbb873f1fb8b0e49ce0ebfa36cd.png

Charts from the gfs day 4

1723441801_viewimage(3).thumb.png.bbe308d4648cdb840a905a8ede54a2ce.png1132980647_viewimage(2).thumb.png.0473d43937070b63a7ce905e59a86f98.png

Low heights to the north and the high to the south with a very active jet running across our locale.Quite windy at times with the squeeze on the pressure gradient.

Temperatures varying with passing of the differing air masses but  Scotland more often in the polar air with highland snowfall.

GEFS 5 day mean

53438272_gfs-ens_T850aMean_eu_2(1).thumb.png.0725362beb3a2735c05d05c93baed75a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

A look at some UKMO and GFS outputs showing that there's plenty of mobility in the Atlantic in the coming week with a series of lows heading across as shown on some of the  fax's.

fax48s.thumb.gif.e3ef89b4ce07ac1b7b867e8e290b5892.giffax72s.thumb.gif.d13f79d85dd483f972b0bc0d8b41620f.gif

These features running east at around 60n and into Scandinavia.Some cold air sweeping in to the uk behind the cold fronts but most of the snow/rain falling over Scotland.The higher pressure further south never far away weakening the frontal systems as they reach southern areas.

This highlighted by the precipitation projections 

prec4.thumb.png.8792fbbb873f1fb8b0e49ce0ebfa36cd.png

Charts from the gfs day 4

1723441801_viewimage(3).thumb.png.bbe308d4648cdb840a905a8ede54a2ce.png1132980647_viewimage(2).thumb.png.0473d43937070b63a7ce905e59a86f98.png

Low heights to the north and the high to the south with a very active jet running across our locale.Quite windy at times with the squeeze on the pressure gradient.

Temperatures varying with passing of the differing air masses but  Scotland more often in the polar air with highland snowfall.

GEFS 5 day mean

53438272_gfs-ens_T850aMean_eu_2(1).thumb.png.0725362beb3a2735c05d05c93baed75a.png

 

Yes winter returns to Scotland, Highland regions should see significant snowfall in the days ahead, good news for the ski resorts in time for the half term school holidays.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Just trying to resurrect this thread!

The Met O Fax charts showing the low on Sat-Sun then linking via Net Wx for the ECMWF over a similar period

The 12Z for Sunday both last evening and this morning in about the same place

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

The ECMWF for Sunday, at T+96 it is now a bit nearer the UK position than shown yesterday, but suggesting even this morning, the low taking a bit more of a southerly track.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

So an unsettled period likely but little if any snow other than mountain tops possible for Snowdonia and the Pennines, perhaps!

Bit windy for a time but nothing serious.

Beyond and the 500 mb anomaly charts have minor changes compared to a few days ago but nothing to suggest deep cold in the next 14 days in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I was going to do a piece into here about the deep lows, now two named storms but there are two special threads for them.

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