Predictions for 2022?

[LetItSnow!]

I usually see these type of threads started every year. Always a bit of fun. Didn’t see one yet so thought I’d start one. Get your crystal balls at hand!  

[Met.]

January: 1-6°C, 80mm, 56 hrs sun. Average, a bit wet.

February: 0-4°C, 100mm, 39hrs sun. Cold, wet, gloomy.

March: -3 - 3°C, 30mm, 90hrs sun. March 2013 the second. Awful backloaded winter, extremely cold, horrible.

April: 3-11°C, 110mm, 110hrs sun. Cold, wet and raw, dull crappy spring month.

May: 8-17°C, 22mm, 199hrs sun. Mild, sunny, and dry. The only decent month of the year.

June: 9-16°C, 275mm, 65hrs sun. Cloudiest on record, very cold and extremely wet. 2012 the 2nd.

July: 11-18°C, 115mm, 96hrs sun. Very dull, wet and cold.

August: 12-20°C, 99mm, 135hrs sun. "Best" of summer but still cold. Even in London it gets no higher than 27 degrees (all summer).

September: 10-16°C, 164mm, 120hrs sun. A cool and unpleasant month.

October: 4-11°C, 75mm, 84hrs sun. Very chilly October, coldest in decades, lots of snow in the final week.

November: 7-12°C, 203mm, 29hrs sun. Very mild and extremely wet.

December: 2-5°C, 167mm, 10.2hrs sun. Extremely cloudy, wet and cool.

All just made up of course.

[LetItSnow!]

5 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

January: 1-6°C, 80mm, 56 hrs sun. Average, a bit wet.

February: 0-4°C, 100mm, 39hrs sun. Cold, wet, gloomy.

March: -3 - 3°C, 30mm, 90hrs sun. March 2013 the second. Awful backloaded winter, extremely cold, horrible.

April: 3-11°C, 110mm, 110hrs sun. Cold, wet and raw, dull crappy spring month.

May: 8-17°C, 22mm, 199hrs sun. Mild, sunny, and dry. The only decent month of the year.

June: 9-16°C, 275mm, 65hrs sun. Cloudiest on record, very cold and extremely wet. 2012 the 2nd.

July: 11-18°C, 115mm, 96hrs sun. Very dull, wet and cold.

August: 12-20°C, 99mm, 135hrs sun. "Best" of summer but still cold. Even in London it gets no higher than 27 degrees (all summer).

September: 10-16°C, 164mm, 120hrs sun. A cool and unpleasant month.

October: 4-11°C, 75mm, 84hrs sun. Very chilly October, coldest in decades, lots of snow in the final week.

November: 7-12°C, 203mm, 29hrs sun. Very mild and extremely wet.

December: 2-5°C, 167mm, 10.2hrs sun. Extremely cloudy, wet and cool.

All just made up of course.

Sounds like a mixture of 1817 and 2012 on steroids. Out of interest, your year would average 8.50C and 1440mm. 2012 and 2000 would look quite dry in comparison. 

[Methuselah]

January, February and Smarch: swinging back-and-forth between very mild & wet and very cold and dry/snowy; I expect at least one week-long severe easterly outbreak;

April, May and June: a funny one, depending on the whereabouts of rogue cold air-masses left over from winter;

June-September: some hot, thundery weather is hoped-for; what we get is anyone's guess!

October and November: the usual autumntime crap!

December: like every year, rubbish weather and shops chock-full of totally pointless Christmas crap. Bah, humbug!

Edited December 6, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Sunny76]

Well, 2022 is a World Cup year, and most summers when a World Cup takes place are either hot or have longer decent sunny spells. But, World Cup won’t be held in June, so maybe as a consequence the summer will be cool and wet.

January: cold and sunny, with a 10 day mild period of cloudy and damp conditions. Some snow and very cold days thrown in.

February : Starts off very cold, turning very mild during the middle with some sunny days and temps nudging 16-19c. This won’t last long though. The month will end on a cold wet and windy note.

March : average month overall, with a cold and sunny start. Mostly dry until the last week, with wet and windy conditions to close the month.

April : cool and unsettled first half, warm dry and sunny second half. Slightly warmer than average.

May: another disappointing May, and staying cool or even cold until the 20th, thereafter it will turn warm and sunny. The warm sunny spell lasts until the close of the month.

June: a hot first week with daytime highs in the high 20s, and the first spell of warm nights. A thundery spell across large areas of the south and central part of the country.

The second half of the month will be more unsettled, but staying warm and humid, due to cloud cover.

July: a warm month, but unsettled with frequent thunderstorms, more so to the north and west. A north/south split takes place this month, with the south having more warm sunny days, while the north has more rain and storms. A cloudy month overall, so not a classic summer month for sunshine. But, good on the storm front.

August: Breaking the trend of disappointing Augusts. Starts off cool and showery, but warm and very sunny from the end of the first week. Staying warm and sunny until the last day, and feeling less humid. No storms though. A fresher feel to mornings and evenings as we move into the final week of the month.

September : a warm sunny month, with some windy and wet weather during the second half. 
 

October: mild and wet, with some cold sunny days mixed in. 
 

November : a mild month and very cloudy. A dry month.

December:  starts off mild, but turns cold and sunny for the rest of the month. Weather will turn mild for Christmas though, with some damp and cloudy conditions. Mild and damp until new year. 

[knocker]

Sniffing the coffee will become endemic

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Major storm end of Jan /early Feb….MetO red alerts in place 

 

BFTP

[Eagle Eye]

January 

Starts off with a northerly or two before becoming a more Atlantic set up, around average temperature wise, below average precipitation 

February

A series of storm systems bring heavy rain to western Britain  whereas it's around average for the east, above average temperatures and above average rainfall 

March

An uneventful March with temperatures slightly above average and rainfall slightly below average 

April

April veins with a slightly more heated channel than usual hence a couple storms but nothing major, rainfall average and temperatures a degree or two above average

May

A short plume or two in early May with some good storms hitting the south but again nothing major, after a brief period of cooler weather there's a more significant plume which brings surface based storms and perhaps a good major storm up through the channel, temps and rainfall slightly above average 

June

Heat lasts into early June before it becomes an uneventful mix with perhaps a strong storm further inland with a brief Atlantic high temps and rainfall average 

July 

Heavy rainfall early on before some good troughing mid month bringing storms to the south and midlands and then a boring me to the month, above average temps and above average precipitation 

August 

Below average precipitation with an Atlantic dominated setup and average temps most of the month, slightly above average early month 

September 

An average month in both precipitation and temps late month blocking over Scandinavia 

October

Pretty blocked pattern before the Scandinavian blocking seemingly folds late month, near average temps below average precipitation 

November 

Early month is average before a northerly or two precedes a pretty strong switch to easterly winds up in the stratosphere (3rd phase of the easterly QBO) these begin 'descending and the second half of the month is slightly cooler.

December

A brush of Siberia early month brigs a hit of snow and much colder weather before another blocked pattern and there's the potential for a stronger easterly or Atlantic heights into the next year.

[Bradley in Kent]

I think it'll, like this year, be a cooler year compared to recent years as we seem to have entered a relatively cool phase. For info I'll base this on my locale, obviously things could be very different elsewhere. 

January - mix of high pressure and polar maritime airmass, with one or two snow events (like 2015)

February - a mild zonal month as La Nina kicks in (like 2011)

March - a cooler than average (biggest cool anomaly) and again zonal (like 2016)

April - dryish, but nothing like 2020 or 2021, with some warmth (like 2015 or 2009)

May - a warm and sunny month, (like 2020 or 2009)

June - a wet month with one Spanish Plume (like 2011 or 2019)

July - a cool and dryish month (like 2015)

August - another naff month breaking the longest 'Hot August Drought' since reliable records began (like most Augusts since 2003)

September - starting warm but transitioning to wet and humid (biggest warm anomaly) (like 2013)

October - a cool and wet month (like 2012)

November - a mild and dank month (like 2011 or 2014)

December - a quiet, average temperature month with Euro High at play (like 2006 or 2007)

[MattStoke]

January - March: Snow-on-Trent
April - May: Sun-on-Trent
June - August : Scorcher-on-Trent
September - November: Storms-on-Trent
December: Soaked-on-Trent

[B87]

Sunnier than 2021 (not difficult).

Jan: cool, dry and average sunshine

Feb: mild, dry and sunny

Mar: average temperatures, rainfall and sunshine

Apr: warm, dry and sunny

May: cool, wet, cloudy

Jun: hot, wet, sunny

Jul: average temperatures, dry and sunny

Aug: warm, dry, cloudy

Sep: warm, wet, cloudy

Oct: mild, wet, cloudy

Nov: cool, dry, sunny

Dec: mild, wet, sunny

[Roger J Smith]

JAN -- some colder and snowy intervals along with near normal but rather unsettled intervals, CET around 3 C.

FEB -- any cold won't last too long, quite mild later, CET around 6 C.

MAR -- mild to start, turning colder than normal, a weaker version of 2013, CET around 5 C. 

APR -- mixed bag, near 9 to 9.5 CET. 

MAY -- quite warm, best chance of a top ten month, CET above 12.5. 

JUN -- a rather average month, 14.5 C CET. 

JUL -- another quite average sort of month, 17.0 CET. 

AUG -- heat waves at times, 17.5 CET. 

SEP -- variable, one brush with tropical remnant storm, 14.3 C CET. 

OCT -- wet, not overly warm but CET around 11 C. 

NOV -- turning colder near end, CET around 7 C. 

DEC -- quite a cold month, snow at times, CET around 2.5 C. 

================================

I guess winning in this would be losing less horribly, not really a time frame anyone can be very good with details but will be a sport and have a go.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok let’s put in here.  Chance of transitory cold period Jan 4-10 then westerly dominance to prevail as per lrf rPM or PM air.  Major storm period end Jan into Feb….very newsworthy! ( be prepared)!  Feb will flip flop, Latter 3rd of Feb….bitterly cold NE flow.  Early March to continue cold

BFTp

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Winter

January: Mild and wet for the most part, with a short cold snap later in the month. 

February: A mild and stormy first half where we would see some strong winds and heavy rainfall resulting in flooding in places. Second half will be cooler, but with springlike days at the end of the month.

Spring

March: Coldest daytime temp of 2022 during the first week of the month. In fact, the month will end up being colder than Feb. But the weather will settle down somewhat around the equinox.

April: First few days of the month will be mild and settled with plenty of sunshine and some cold frosty nights. A big change around the 5th with wintry conditions taking over until the middle of the month. Thereon, the weather settles down and we will see our first 20 Celsius of the year around the 25th.

May: Starts off with being settled and becomes very warm in places, with some seeing our first 25 Celsius of the year. Becomes unsettled around the 10th, which lasts until around the 21st when high pressure takes over. This leads to plenty of sunshine with temps widely reaching the low 20s.

Summer

June: Settled weather at the end of May continues into June - a few places reaching daytime temps in the mid to late 20s. Becomes cooler and more unsettled in all parts of the UK as a deep low for the time of year takes over, leading to some heavy rainfall and strong winds. Quietens down from mid month onwards and temps around average for the time of year.

July: Temps around average during the first half of the month with scattered showers here and there. Becomes hot around the 15th with 30 Celsius or above being widely reached, particularly in the SE followed by some thunderstorms for many. Cooler and cloudier at the start of the summer hols, but will be fairly dry.

August: The trend of meh Augusts continues. It will be a mostly cloudy month with a few showers here and there and will also feel quite humid at times. Despite the cloud, it will still be relatively warm for many areas, with temps reaching 25 Celsius on some days.

Autumn

September: The cloudy and humid conditions seen during August continues into the first few days of Sept. It then becomes cooler and sunnier around the 5th with temps being around average for the time of year. Becomes unsettled for many areas around the 12th, and will be cool with daytime temps widely in the 13 to 16 Celsius range. A NW to SE split then takes over for the rest of the month with temps widely around average, but low 20s on the odd day.

October: NW to SE split continues into the first week of the month, but becomes unsettled for everyone at the beginning of the second week. Second half of the month will be more settled with temps around average for the time of the year and varying amounts of sunshine. Becomes cooler from around the 20th with scattered showers here and there.

November: Mild and wet will be the main theme for the month, with a few short settled interludes and there. 

Winter

December: Mild and wet theme continues into the first half of December. Thereon, it becomes cooler and dryer for many areas.

[Anthony Burden]

January first week or so the battle will continue with this very cold block to our north and northeast

and an aggressive Atlantic.Still cold surprises for the far north and Scotland in the first 10 days.

Mid January Atlantic weakning due to polar vortex waning.second half of January into first half of February 

under cold northern blocking to the northwest/northeast temperatures well below normal.Later February 

and March temperatures returning to normal.

 

[LetItSnow!]

January mostly mild and cyclonic but becoming more anticylonic later. Very wet. C.E.T. in the 5s.

February turns much drier but high pressure always in control but often mild/very mild by day. Quite springlike. C.E.T. in the 5s

March turns more unsettled again, very typical month though with some unseasonable gales thrown in later on. C.E.T. in the 6s

April remains very wet but turns much colder with dream winter charts finally manifesting. Unseasonable falls of snow. Extremely wet, the wettest since 2012. C.E.T. in the 6s

May remains cool and unsettled but turns warmer and drier at the end of the month, saving an otherwise forgettable month. C.E.T. in the 11s

June turns quite warm but also thundery at times, otherwise a fairly forgettable, humid month. C.E.T in the 15s

July is a mixed bag, overall rather dissapointing, a very standard English summer month. A few hot days thrown in there. Turns unsettled and very cool later. C.E.T in the 16s

August turns very poor throughout much of the month with temperatures struggling to see the low 20s on many days, very dull and very wet but some cracking thunderstorms. Better later. C.E.T. in the 15s

September does the classic reversal and is a very sunny, dry and anticyclonic month. Many places seeing half or under half their average rainfall. C.E.T. in the 14s

October turns into a very seasonably chilly month with plenty of cool but otherwise unexceptional days. Not too wet and rather quiet but dull. Coolest since 2012. C.E.T. in the 9s

November remains seasonable, lots of mist and fog and overall a quiet month. C.E.T. in the 6s

December finally sees some cold weather, lots of anticylonic easterlies bringing wintry showers and plenty of hair-tearing in the model threads about upper air temperatures and exact locations of snow. A more meaty cold spell toward Christmas. C.E.T in the 3s.

Edited December 27, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[Harry233]

January: Mild start, before coming colder and frostier until midmonth. Very mild and wet second half with virtually no frost. Max: 16.C, min: -8.C

February: To continue very mild but with high pressure bringing some sunny days (similar to 2008) before a northerly blast around Valentine’s Day to continue the rest of the month. Occasional snowy days. Max: 15.C, min: -14.C

March: A cold start, settled in the south but very snowy in the north and widespread low -10.C temps. A big area of low pressure bringing very heavy rain to all areas from the 7th and this brings a rapid thaw in the north with flooding. The rest of the month non descript, occasional sunny and mild day intercepted by a cold, wet day. Max: 18.C, min: -14.C.

April: Very warm but wet, unlike March no cold spells and very little frost. Generally unsettled however with a couple of very warm spells ending in big thundery downpour's.  Max: 26.C, min: 0.C.

May: A warm and thundery start, before a northerly blast from the 4th brings some cold, frost but dry and sunny weather. Last 10 days become warm and sunny in most areas with occasional heavy showers. Max: 26.C, min: -3.C.

June: A fairly non- descript start, quite cloudy, occasional sunnier day high teens/low 20’s temps. Becoming hotter from the 11th. Peaking on the 15th, thundery downpours in the north from the 19th-22nd but the south remains dry and sunny. Last week being like the start with no real summery weather. Max: 33.C, min: 2.C.

July: A very dry month, one of the driest in the last 100 years, quite warm in the north but cool in the south although with a very warm spell from the 17th-25th. This brings some very localised thundery downpours but most areas miss them. Potentially record breaking heat in Scotland during the 17th-25th peaking at 34.C in Perthshire or the central belt. 37.C in the London area. Max: 37.C, min: 3.C

August: A very wet first week will give way to a mainly dry rest of the month. Flooding in most areas on the 4th. The rest of the month being distinctly average. Bar a brief hot spell around the 20th. A cold end to the month, especially at night. Max: 30.C, min: -1.C.

September: Quite warm and wet. A month of two halves. With a warm, dry and sunny first half, wetter second half but no cold weather until the closing days. Max: 29.C, min: 0.C.

October: Wet start, a warm spell in the second week as a late Indian summer and a cold and anticyclone mix second half. Max: 26.C, min: -6.C

November: Anticyclonic month, generally very cold and sunny. Snowy in the last week, many cold days. Max: 13.C, min: -12.C.

December: Cold and snowy in the north. Mild and wet in the south. Cold snap country wide from Boxing Day almost beating 1995. Max: 15.C, min: -26.C

[Summer8906]

OK finally found this thread.

My predictions are not scientific; they are simply based on the typical tendency for the weather in a given month in recent years (2007+), together with a highly unscientific 'if a given month hasn't been hot/cold/wet/dry for a while, it will this coming year'.

So something like this. Anomalies are for central southern England and aren't to be taken too seriously!

January: mild and wet for three weeks, drier, more anticyclonic and colder last 10 days. Some similarities to 1998, but first 20 days less mild and less stormy than 1998.

+1.5C, 130% rain, 90% sun

February: the driest winter month and often anticyclonic. Not sure whether it'll be mild or cold, so I'll go with cold start, mild and spring-like for two weeks in the middle of the month, before retrogression gives a wintry end.

+0.5C, 50% rain, 120% sun

March: a rather windy and changeable month, and below average. In contrast to recent Marches however, a wintry start with the most settled weather in the first 10 days of the month with hard frosts. Then a windy WNW-ly type for much of the month with average, or slightly below temps, more rain than usual for March, but also relatively bright due to winds in the NW quarter. At end of month, northerlies return again.

-0.5C, 120% rain, 110% sun

April: a typically mixed April. Northerly start with late snowfall even in the south. Settled and increasingly warm mid-month, but changeable cyclonic S-ly or SE-ly towards the end making it wetter but warm.

+0.5C, 100% rain, 100% sun

May: dominated by easterlies. Warm in the main, but often thundery. Some notable thundery outbreaks due to low pressure over France, but one or two occasional cold NE-ly spells. Cooler changeable Atlantic weather with slow moving slack lows in a westerly late in the month.

+2.0C, 110% rain, 95% sun

June: it's been a while since a settled June, and June has had the most tendency to be settled of the three summer months in recent years (2007+) so I think it's time for a nice June next year. Year's highest max of around 32C to occur this month. Initially cool and changeable but predominantly warm and sunny with occasional thundery outbreaks.

+1.5C, 70% rain, 130% sun

July: the most unsettled summer month this year. Rather cool and changeable with a series of slack lows moving WNW-ESE producing frequent thundery downpours. One rather brief hot spell, but with the max only 28C followed by a notably severe thundery breakdown. Change of type at very end of month following a northerly; high pressure builds in from the west.

-1.0C, 130% rain, 80% sun

August: after a long sequence of unsettled Augusts since 2017, I expect this one to be relatively good for recent years. Not a stunner, but perhaps comparable to 2013 or 2016, so often settled, persistently somewhat warmer than average, and only light rain with many dry days. No well-defined hot spell, as such, though.

+1.0C, 80% rain, 100% sun

September: following three consecutive years with a settled first three weeks of September and unsettled end, this one will be a bit different. Settled at very beginning (first 3 days) followed by a lengthy fairly unsettled spell with a sequence of Atlantic lows. Reasonable sunshine levels in the south though. A change around the equinox to produce a settled and sunny 'Indian summer' end to the month.

0.0C, 110% rain, 100% sun

October: there has been quite a run of dull Octobers, so I'm expecting this one to be sunnier. A month of two halves: some very nice Indian summer weather in the first half before a change to colder, unsettled and often stormy for the last two weeks. However a dry Halloween, in contrast to recent years, under a ridge.

+1.0C, 100% rain, 110% sun

November: after a benign November this year, this one will be wet, stormy and mild. Foggy interlude in second half of month.

+1.5C, 120% rain, 80% sun

December: finally, a below average December - the first IIRC since 2010. Lengthy, two week spell of dry, frosty conditions before Christmas; but more unsettled and stormy at start and somewhat unsettled at end.

-0.5C, 70% rain, 120% sun

And.. given we're now seeing what early January will be like, I will go for January 2023 being a cold one for recent times, with a potent easterly at some point, a lying snow event for the south, and sunnier than average. (-1.5C, 60% rain, 110% sun)

Edited December 31, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 06/12/2021 at 15:28, Thundershine said:

January: 1-6°C, 80mm, 56 hrs sun. Average, a bit wet.

February: 0-4°C, 100mm, 39hrs sun. Cold, wet, gloomy.

March: -3 - 3°C, 30mm, 90hrs sun. March 2013 the second. Awful backloaded winter, extremely cold, horrible.

April: 3-11°C, 110mm, 110hrs sun. Cold, wet and raw, dull crappy spring month.

May: 8-17°C, 22mm, 199hrs sun. Mild, sunny, and dry. The only decent month of the year.

June: 9-16°C, 275mm, 65hrs sun. Cloudiest on record, very cold and extremely wet. 2012 the 2nd.

July: 11-18°C, 115mm, 96hrs sun. Very dull, wet and cold.

August: 12-20°C, 99mm, 135hrs sun. "Best" of summer but still cold. Even in London it gets no higher than 27 degrees (all summer).

September: 10-16°C, 164mm, 120hrs sun. A cool and unpleasant month.

October: 4-11°C, 75mm, 84hrs sun. Very chilly October, coldest in decades, lots of snow in the final week.

November: 7-12°C, 203mm, 29hrs sun. Very mild and extremely wet.

December: 2-5°C, 167mm, 10.2hrs sun. Extremely cloudy, wet and cool.

All just made up of course.

Sounds like the year from hell! (apart from May and perhaps October) 

[B87]

Month / Av max / Av min / Precip / Sun

Jan: 10c / 4c / 70mm / 40 hours
Feb: 8c / 2c / 20mm / 80 hours
Mar: 11c / 4c / 30mm / 120 hours
Apr: 16c / 7c / 10mm / 200 hours
May: 18c / 9c / 40mm / 200 hours
Jun: 22c / 12c / 30mm / 220 hours
Jul: 24c / 14c / 40mm / 190 hours
Aug: 26c / 15c / 10mm / 280 hours
Sep: 20c / 11c / 50mm / 150 hours
Oct: 15c / 10c / 100mm / 120 hours
Nov: 10c / 4c / 60mm / 70 hours
Dec: 7c / 1c / 30mm / 30 hours
 

Drier and sunnier than 2021, with an actually good August for once.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by B87

[Sunny76]

I’ll renew my prediction and say 2022 will provide : more summer storms, but still a dull summer. 
 

Another year for the bin I think. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So to add in here as it’s quiet.  I’m a tad concerned re the the period last week of Jan into beginning of Feb.  Peak energy period…I believe there’s some serious stormy weather to come with severe gale Northerlies, think Storm Arwen (and some!) and I wouldn’t be surprised at MetO warnings coming thick and fast for this period when we get nearer……and there could be a reload very beginning of Feb.  (Main hold back is we’ve seen set ups actually being further East and affecting Low Countries etc instead of us….that is still on the table.)   The pattern change will be building towards this period and what GFS is showing (Deep diving LP/s from NW into near continental Europe)  is the general way it will develop imo as I’ve suggested.  Likely to be the pattern change switch to usher in a very cold February with troughing to our S and SE and HP to our WNW/NW.

 

May well be folly , but I will be watching     from the sidelines

BFTP

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Today is the first day I started to notice that sunset is gradually getting later again.

There wasn't much cloud either, so it was easier to notice.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 09/01/2022 at 17:32, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Today is the first day I started to notice that sunset is gradually getting later again.

There wasn't much cloud either, so it was easier to notice.

Wrong thread. Apologies.

[B87]

First half of January is looking on course to deliver just the 2nd sunnier than average month here since September 2020.