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Predictions for 2022?


LetItSnow!

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

After 2 anticyclone dominated Aprils in a row, I can see a fairly unsettled one happening this year.

Whilst I realise that it's purely coincidental, the weather does seem to balance things out eventually. There was the recent benign autumn too, and January is turning out to be a quiet month.

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Nobody foresaw a dry and sunny January. We're off to a good start on the predictions, then

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
10 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Nobody foresaw a dry and sunny January. We're off to a good start on the predictions, then

I got half of it right and the Atlantic setup
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
On 23/12/2021 at 21:35, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok let’s put in here.  Chance of transitory cold period Jan 4-10 then westerly dominance to prevail as per lrf rPM or PM air.  Major storm period end Jan into Feb….very newsworthy! ( be prepared)!  Feb will flip flop, Latter 3rd of Feb….bitterly cold NE flow.  Early March to continue cold

BFTp

 

What are your views on this now BFTP. If it doesn't happen what are the drivers that didn't occur to prevent it?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Having reviewed the EC 46 I went back to the seasonal model and specifically the combined agencies ECM, UK Met Office, JMA, DWD etc. So this was issued Jan 1 and we await a fresh one in the next two weeks. I think with all the excitement of commenting on each model run several times a day looking for snow perhaps hid the glaringly obvious indications coming from the seasonal that this Winter and Spring would not be a cold one. The fact that New Year was record breaking for a weather enthusiast was of no interest it seems. The pattern has seen a major high Anomaly over the Aleutians area, trough to the East and extending into Greenland with a local Jet well to our north in the mean. This is to continue for Spring it seems. Some folks believe the ENSO flips like a coin, but of course it will be well into the early summer before we see any changes at the surface here in my view. If there was the ability to down vote this post would get it, but there you go, I think these seasonal models are fascinating even if attempting to discern the weather for any given week is hopeless they should temper people with the overall global background.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

Oh, how wrong I was! 

That's a good start isn't it? 

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
On 27/12/2021 at 05:00, LetItSnow! said:

January mostly mild and cyclonic but becoming more anticylonic later. Very wet. C.E.T. in the 5s.

February turns much drier but high pressure always in control but often mild/very mild by day. Quite springlike. C.E.T. in the 5s

March turns more unsettled again, very typical month though with some unseasonable gales thrown in later on. C.E.T. in the 6s

April remains very wet but turns much colder with dream winter charts finally manifesting. Unseasonable falls of snow. Extremely wet, the wettest since 2012. C.E.T. in the 6s

May remains cool and unsettled but turns warmer and drier at the end of the month, saving an otherwise forgettable month. C.E.T. in the 11s

June turns quite warm but also thundery at times, otherwise a fairly forgettable, humid month. C.E.T in the 15s

July is a mixed bag, overall rather dissapointing, a very standard English summer month. A few hot days thrown in there. Turns unsettled and very cool later. C.E.T in the 16s

August turns very poor throughout much of the month with temperatures struggling to see the low 20s on many days, very dull and very wet but some cracking thunderstorms. Better later. C.E.T. in the 15s

September does the classic reversal and is a very sunny, dry and anticyclonic month. Many places seeing half or under half their average rainfall. C.E.T. in the 14s

October turns into a very seasonably chilly month with plenty of cool but otherwise unexceptional days. Not too wet and rather quiet but dull. Coolest since 2012. C.E.T. in the 9s

November remains seasonable, lots of mist and fog and overall a quiet month. C.E.T. in the 6s

December finally sees some cold weather, lots of anticylonic easterlies bringing wintry showers and plenty of hair-tearing in the model threads about upper air temperatures and exact locations of snow. A more meaty cold spell toward Christmas. C.E.T in the 3s.

It wasn't perfect so far, but I was right about a mild Jan-Mar period as well as good charts finally appearing in April!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
8 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

It wasn't perfect so far, but I was right about a mild Jan-Mar period as well as good charts finally appearing in April!

I think January was fairly cold at times. We had quite a few days in the single digits in London. And it was mostly sunny and dry. 

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
28 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think January was fairly cold at times. We had quite a few days in the single digits in London. And it was mostly sunny and dry. 

You're right, actually. Apart from the first 2 or 3 days and perhaps the final days, January was below average, especially at night. Weatherwise, I was fond of it as it had sparkling sunshine on most days and quite hard frosts at night, even in the city. Further north though it was definitely milder as they were more at the mercy of weather brushs brushing over the top of the high, therefor much more cloud and a lack of frost. Someone said - take out the first few days and the month averaged around 3.9-4.0degC. I think modern anomalies were probably around or over -0.5degC in the southeast - funny as that was the case last summer, the coldest anomalies being in the SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
On 24/12/2021 at 17:28, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Winter

January: Mild and wet for the most part, with a short cold snap later in the month. 

February: A mild and stormy first half where we would see some strong winds and heavy rainfall resulting in flooding in places. Second half will be cooler, but with springlike days at the end of the month.

Spring

March: Coldest daytime temp of 2022 during the first week of the month. In fact, the month will end up being colder than Feb. But the weather will settle down somewhat around the equinox.

April: First few days of the month will be mild and settled with plenty of sunshine and some cold frosty nights. A big change around the 5th with wintry conditions taking over until the middle of the month. Thereon, the weather settles down and we will see our first 20 Celsius of the year around the 25th.

I haven't been doing too badly with my predictions for the year so far, though obviously not spot on.

January was fairly dry over here but there was indeed a coldish snap with sunny days and frosty nights. My prediction for February being a stormy month with strong winds did actually transpire, with 3 named storms that month. Some places did receive heavy rainfall and flooding too. There was also a few mildish days (though certainly nothing exceptional) at the end of the month which I suppose you could consider as being springlike.

Turns out that I was completely way off with my March predictions, as well as with the beginning of April being mild and settled. Though we are getting cold frosty nights as predicted.

 

 

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

For a laugh I've been playing around with this new super-smart AI that can generate stories and sentences from any prompt. I decided to ask its opinion on the weather over the course of the remainder of the year, seeing as it has about as much chance of being correct as any of us!

It's going for a warm, dry and fine July with temperatures about a degree above average. Then it's going for a very hot and humid August that's thundery, sort of like 1997, with especially hot minima. It then cools off in September to leave a rather showery and cool month and this theme continues into October. It then thinks November will be quite chilly (about a degree below average) but a mixed bag but with some snow. Most interestingly it thinks December 2022 will be an exceptionally cold month ala 2010 but not overly snowy. 

At this rate it'll do better than any of us! The August sounds like a nightmare but the rest I wouldn't mind!

Edited by LetItSnow!
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  • 5 months later...
  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
On 21/06/2022 at 22:15, LetItSnow! said:

For a laugh I've been playing around with this new super-smart AI that can generate stories and sentences from any prompt. I decided to ask its opinion on the weather over the course of the remainder of the year, seeing as it has about as much chance of being correct as any of us!

It's going for a warm, dry and fine July with temperatures about a degree above average. Then it's going for a very hot and humid August that's thundery, sort of like 1997, with especially hot minima. It then cools off in September to leave a rather showery and cool month and this theme continues into October. It then thinks November will be quite chilly (about a degree below average) but a mixed bag but with some snow. Most interestingly it thinks December 2022 will be an exceptionally cold month ala 2010 but not overly snowy. 

At this rate it'll do better than any of us! The August sounds like a nightmare but the rest I wouldn't mind!

Quite frightening that the AI got more right that most of us or models! 👻 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
On 07/12/2021 at 13:50, Eagle Eye said:

 

A brush of Siberia early month brigs a hit of snow and much colder weather before another blocked pattern and there's the potential for a stronger easterly or Atlantic heights into the next year.

Close enough, just ignore the rest of the predictions  🤣

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This is sort of like when you open the fridge after being away on holiday for a month ... 

(posted 10th Dec 2021 so even Jan was an actual forecast) ... 

JAN -- some colder and snowy intervals along with near normal but rather unsettled intervals, CET around 3 C. (this outlook did not address the record New Years warmth, otherwise it was a rather dry month with cool to near average temps, CET was 4.7 but was probably around 3 C for a large chunk of the month other than the two ends -- assessment, only a fair outlook but it captured some of the essentials for a large fraction of the time.)

FEB -- any cold won't last too long, quite mild later, CET around 6 C. (there was no cold to last any length of time, and it was quite mild all month, CET 6.9 C -- assessment, a reasonably good forecast). 

MAR -- mild to start, turning colder than normal, a weaker version of 2013, CET around 5 C. (stayed mild all month except the last day, CET 8.0, assessment, went from good to poor, overall fair would be charitable)

APR -- mixed bag, near 9 to 9.5 CET. (CET 9.2, basically okay although short on details)

MAY -- quite warm, best chance of a top ten month, CET above 12.5. (CET 13.1, so this one good to excellent, didn't mention the cooler end of the month though)

JUN -- a rather average month, 14.5 C CET. (CET 14.9, this was good as far as it went which again wasn't very far)

JUL -- another quite average sort of month, 17.0 CET. (CET 18.2, severe heat at times mid-month ... the forecast would have described a blend of 1-10 and 21-31 July reasonably well, but failed on the extreme heat component, so overall poor/fair).

AUG -- heat waves at times, 17.5 CET. (CET 18.7, forecast is good but not excellent, as May had been advertised as "best chance of top ten month" and this one was ranked higher, as with October)

SEP -- variable, one brush with tropical remnant storm, 14.3 C CET. (CET 14.4, this one is probably good as excellent might have required some mention of increased rainfall near end)

OCT -- wet, not overly warm but CET around 11 C. (CET 12.8, the month was wet and started out "not overly warm" but the forecast fails to identify any chance of record warmth in second half, so like March, good to poor during the month).

NOV -- turning colder near end, CET around 7 C. (CET 9.2, same problem as previous month as the near-record warmth lingered well into the month, it did however turn a lot colder near the end, so will call this poor/poor). 

DEC -- quite a cold month, snow at times, CET around 2.5 C. (this is going well final grade to be added later)

================================

I guess winning in this would be losing less horribly, not really a time frame anyone can be very good with details but will be a sport and have a go.

___________________________________ (end of original post) ______ 

 

Of those, I think a few are good, some are fair, some are off quite a bit. I added the actual CET v2.0 outcomes in brackets. As many of the other forecasts do not contain CET estimates, rather hard to compare ... this collection may not be the best of the lot, I will have to dive back in and read them over again (I did back around the spring months). Maybe somebody who didn't make a forecast should give some thoughts about which ones are better.

Also it needs to be underscored that making these forecasts up to a year in advance does not make them "final long-range forecast" material, that can be found in the CET forecast contest where I improved on several of these from June to November and reduced my average error to a rather small one (contest winners were lucky I didn't start that hot streak until May-June, by which time I was too far back to catch anyone other than the middle of the pack). Part of the challenge is that you don't want to go too far out on a limb with 2-12 month outlooks, and so the numbers are biased towards long-term averages. 

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