Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Christmas approaches


Paul
 Share

Message added by Paul,

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GEM also onboard with the synoptic of Greenland wedge and undercutting Atlantic so just ECM for a full house:

    gemeu-0-150.thumb.png.63b2eed7e066640a6812c91e94138eee.png

    Obviously the finer detail is to be resolved, and a few runs to make sure no backtracks, but looking good...

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    Where's Ian Brown when you need him

    I think Codge is here under a different name though …

    Sorry for OT

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    On 16/12/2021 at 16:51, sheikhy said:

    This aint done yet!!that shortwave is still to further west on ukmo and it looks like the control is goin west based at 150 hours!!

    Yes, having this pattern is what we want, but getting the best from it is going to be the next tease. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    In all seriousness, the GEFS is showing the shift at soon as T+150. See the 06Z: 

    image.thumb.png.dc7379107a4a1d8177110b4c7f4cbe3a.png

    And now on the 12Z, watch how the high has been shunted north west and the atlantic into more of an undercutting phase to the west of Ireland, helping to draw the continental feed further SW. Could still swing the other way...

    image.thumb.png.0461c9980aea5a52ed539c3ff660c731.png

    What a said a few days ago remains. I want to see the below before getting too overly confident

    1. Inter-model consistency

    2. Inter-run consistency 

    3. UKMO support from Exeter 

    What we *may* now be seeing is (1) together with (3) - I've seen a few UKMO pros on twitter tweeting about the mixing of airmasses over xmas today. Small signs...

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Will never understand this forums of shutting down threads just because there's a lot of pages, don't see what difference it makes but there we go. 

    12z ENS are an improvement, more amplification on the high and a better NW>SE alignment of the energy in the Atlantic. With the UKMO shifting towards the ECM (albeit not quite fully making it), momentum towards a cold and potentially snowy Christmas period is picking up.

    gensnh-31-1-150.thumb.png.7b6c43e6b0c6b95ebfc616a22161ea5d.png

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Met4Cast said:

    Will never understand this forums of shutting down threads just because there's a lot of pages, don't see what difference it makes but there we go. 

    12z ENS are an improvement, more amplification on the high and a better NW>SE alignment of the energy in the Atlantic. With the UKMO shifting towards the ECM (albeit not quite fully making it), momentum towards a cold and potentially snowy Christmas period is picking up.

    gensnh-31-1-150.thumb.png.7b6c43e6b0c6b95ebfc616a22161ea5d.png

    Slows the site down - long threads do, too long to load.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    control looks like will make it

    Too far north. 
     

    We want the point of contact to be in the channel/northern France so everything north of that low pressure is easterly. 
     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    gem-0-204.png?12

    I think GEM may have got a little carried away with the transfer of very cold air along the southern flank of the blocking high. Triggers excessive LP development within an already overly deep Atlantic trough as it merges with the one over Scandinavia.

    Potentially cold UK-wide by 27th or so but we'd have to get through a windy mix of rain and snow beforehand.

    ...but as I say, likely a bit OTT with the lows. In any case, I'm over-analysing individual model runs here!

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    On 16/12/2021 at 16:57, Met4Cast said:

    Will never understand this forums of shutting down threads just because there's a lot of pages

    It becomes overloaded and the thread will slow down, that's why it gets refreshed. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

     

    5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Will never understand this forums of shutting down threads just because there's a lot of pages, don't see what difference it makes but there we go. 

    Imagine 350 users refreshing a 250 page thread every minute, that's 87,500 pages loaded a minute, on an already resource heavy forum software.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
    12 minutes ago, Paul said:

    Please continue with the model discussion here - could we see a white Christmas this year?

    Maybe 

    gfseuw-2-204.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Singularity said:

    gem-0-204.png?12

    I think GEM may have got a little carried away with the transfer of very cold air along the southern flank of the blocking high. Triggers excessive LP development within an already overly deep Atlantic trough as it merges with the one over Scandinavia.

    Potentially cold UK-wide by 27th or so but we'd have to get through a windy mix of rain and snow beforehand.

    ...but as I say, likely a bit OTT with the lows. In any case, I'm over-analysing individual model runs here!

    I would put it down to the Norwegian low being too far West. It phases before fully clearing south causing a potentially horrid set of weather events.

    Its far too knife edge for my liking, give me a classic BFTE with convection over the channel low stuff. Despite the later being capable of extreme totals. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...