Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Methuselah]

What is going on here? No one has called the GFS12Z 'crap' yet! I guess it all comes down to desire?

Edited December 16, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Man With Beard]

Let me join in - GFS 12Z is absolutely the stuff of dreams for those south of the M4, Channel low into cold air on 25th December!

While it's nice to be in pole position for a white Christmas on the models, keep reminding yourself: there's a LONG way to go yet

[Yarmy]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 

Imagine 350 users refreshing a 250 page thread every minute, that's 87,500 pages loaded a minute, on an already resource heavy forum software.

It's 350 pages a minute. It only loads the page you are on, not all of them.

[Man With Beard]

And another one on Boxing Day!!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

I would put it down to the Norwegian low being too far West. It phases before fully clearing south causing a potentially horrid set of weather events.

Its far too knife edge for my liking, give me a classic BFTE with convection over the channel low stuff. Despite the later being capable of extreme totals. 

It is that mate its defo that!!!!!!i dont think anyone should be getting carried away!!!i know the gfs looks good but i beeen here before!!the ecm needs to have that shortwave further south and east than the ukmo!if it does we in for a barnstormer!!

[swfc]

Interesting day of model watching so farThe models look to be attempting to bring in some much colder weather with the prospect of snow Christmas period. Obv the run to varience will cause anxiety but the synoptics look pretty good be it fi. Here's hoping

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What is going on here? No one has called the GFS12Z 'crap' yet! I guess it all comes down to desire?

It's the dogs Ed thought you knew that

[Frosty.]

It’s aboot time we had a decent Gfs run, the last two, 0z / 6z were crap!…anyhoo, this is more in line with the stellar ECM 0z op..fingers crossed  .. …ps.. I’m completely unbiased, honest guv!    

[NewEra21]

Think I'm going to hibernate for a week, wake me up next Friday. These runs are going to be painful to watch for a whole week!

[Eagle Eye]

Just found this through @Met4Cast Twitter

[Updated_Weather]

On 16/12/2021 at 16:58, Paul said:

If you saw the load on the database you'd maybe not say that! It's something to do with the software which means large threads with lots of posts happening create more load than threads with < 100 pages or so. 

Can’t you just cap the No. pages? Then make it so it sends an alert to a mod to generate a new one?

pretty sure that is possible. 

[Devonshire]

18 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Where's Ian Brown when you need him

There he is - and it looks like it's been snowing! (nice to know there is a fellow Stone Roses fan on the forum!)

[sebastiaan1973]

The control shows a big problem when the cyclone destroys the ridge and gets connected with areas of low pressure at the Atlantic Ocean. 

[Malarky]

After a brief “Typhoon blip”, the models seem to have settled back into the signals that were being picked up a few days ago. Let’s hope the MJO and other indicators continue trending in the right direction.

[ITSY]

The Op is not alone in the short ens - middle of the pack. Longer range is where xmas day actually comes into it. 

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Think I'm going to hibernate for a week, wake me up next Friday. These runs are going to be painful to watch for a whole week!

You can’t go yet - ECMWF 12z imminent

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just found this through @Met4Cast Twitter

Dickens Christmas ♥

[Ali1977]

GEM looks great 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dickens Christmas ♥

Yep, highest snow right on my house Just need the full house with the ECM 

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 17:15, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks great 

Cracking Canadian this evening

[Ali1977]

Day 10 on the op is just epic - dew point are v v cold too 

[yamkin]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks great 

GEM has been ahead of the pack for a few days now. Interesting times ahead ❄❄❄

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

GEM has been ahead of the pack for a few days now. Interesting times ahead ❄❄❄

GEM is better for prolonged

[minus10]

Well that was a nice surprise after not looking at models all day coming home to this being shown for Christmas day..

Out of interest has your percentage increased for cold Christmas Kasim? (Apologies if you have already stated it...not able to look at the hundreds of pages at mo)

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Think I'm going to hibernate for a week, wake me up next Friday. These runs are going to be painful to watch for a whole week!

Yes it is a kind of addictive agony chasing cold on this forum...but i'm hooked...craving ....ecm..

 

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 17:19, yamkin said:

GEM has been ahead of the pack for a few days now. Interesting times ahead ❄❄❄

Very underrated model- it’s a great tool