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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches


Paul
Message added by Paul,

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

The ECM will be fine, the trend is our friend with GFS the more progressive model now joining the Christmas party. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
41 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Still around 70% for cold and snowy. Think I'm gonna be taking a break from the thread for a day or so, the last couple of days has been pretty intense (in a good way, mind ). Plus, infrastructure up here is weak and needs to be secured before (if) a blizzard arrives. 

Looking forward to some snow casts in regionals pal.Rest easy.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

GFS 12z the opposite of the 6z - 12z has a great op, not great ensembles!

image.thumb.png.51a618ac861a7e4ce028df45d1bf3c5b.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, LRD said:

GFS 12z the opposite of the 6z - 12z has a great op, not great ensembles!

image.thumb.png.51a618ac861a7e4ce028df45d1bf3c5b.png

Plenty of good ones in there 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
On 16/12/2021 at 18:00, Mike Poole said:

First few frames 18.00, then approximately:

T96 - 18.13

T120 - 18.20

T144 - 18.27

T168 - 18.33

T192 - 18.40

T216 - 18.48

T240 - 18.55

I have just took a snapshot on my phone of them times,...thanks Mike

now i want some snapshots of some snow on Christmas day❄️:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T96 v GFS and UKMO:

012A19C9-FECD-4577-986D-BE9AE23244EA.thumb.png.a9ae6ec6fd9e235375589137280c8491.png84930328-DC0E-4AE5-BE75-08287670C858.thumb.png.ba1942550ab57cefb7860e6fa4c8cff0.png8FA4F0AB-B0AC-4583-8E34-973C50892F09.thumb.gif.2f42ddf931b28f2d715fa78bdf92dfa0.gif

Rather more GFS than UKMO - good after the run the GFS has just banged out!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

First few frames 18.00, then approximately:

T96 - 18.13

T120 - 18.20

T144 - 18.27

T168 - 18.33

T192 - 18.40

T216 - 18.48

T240 - 18.55

Thanks Mike for this 

 

Very handy

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Our shortwave friend/foe is deeper on the ECM meaning it should track south faster 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

E033FB4B-472C-4A63-B459-74C8723918A0.png

79FBD4EC-78F8-420B-A08C-F4711CAD71C8.png
 

GFS looks better at 120, please don’t fall flat on your face ECM . Need the shortwave to go south, it’s bigger so may have bigger consequences either way 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECM/gfs at 120,...pretty identical.

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.2a0473497d0d0ff76cdf1c3a844df978.gifgfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.896c731c38095d3f2dcf40127ae31ba5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

How did I forget this one!!!..I must be losing it..I blame model fatigue!  

3E1BA1D3-2DA3-4162-B75D-AAB70EF5DEBC.thumb.png.d931823551b9029a05856e1424271e5d.png215788FB-DC2D-4C0D-8E32-4C6B78AB4270.thumb.jpeg.97014449b0c3a130f5cd4c7d46e32c1b.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Up  and running now on even 12z the heights wedge more prominent than its previous suite. We're onto another belter here .. The Atlantic energy governed..✌

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 v GFS and UKMO:

FE69B716-FD2D-496F-9E0C-BD4FA4D2D115.thumb.png.6b47a6843525f57dd73b4a9809fbcad9.pngDF16A629-5FD5-4565-AE6F-D688994E1747.thumb.png.6b1030966445fbd730afeb68272e7e74.png8DFDAE6E-0A46-42C7-8E5F-5CF7A935B14A.thumb.gif.c3eb816fc2eeabe31c261b22a2925cb4.gif

Looking good to me, so far.  Lows from the west looking slidy.  

Finally some consistency appearing, at day 5 too. Bodes well.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

E033FB4B-472C-4A63-B459-74C8723918A0.png

79FBD4EC-78F8-420B-A08C-F4711CAD71C8.png
 

GFS looks better at 120, please don’t fall flat on your face ECM 

Little separating them really ECM also looks cleaner to northeast which is a good thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T144 v GFS and UKMO:

DB62E612-A209-4BC9-8C70-C4B237F394B6.thumb.png.7529a73c95c0988ff2582ed9cc8ee824.png7321F4E2-89FB-4107-BB66-0DC2D230C636.thumb.png.9d3b37bf47d3a7f6eb2cc048c48063e5.png722D6F31-5711-4DE1-BD69-3B7F014834F8.thumb.gif.66313cfdcb73f3856e604d8b79c8986e.gif

It looks to me like the UKMO might bring in the cold air too far north here compared to GFS, ECM between the 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECM/GFS and UKMO at 144...

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.87d4c1fb9202c22c71bb9fa638f12cf8.gif484904701_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.78f30324d67ae5cdd13061733ee5bc22.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.032b6b94ec261b38a15c9d908c6ffeff.gif

the best consistent charts i have seen this far out.

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

wait for it !!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Shaping profile .. even better than the 00z a possible out here !!

Edited by tight isobar
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