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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches


Paul
Message added by Paul,

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Think the booms are a little premature here… still could go very wrong very quickly and those closer to the SE it’s getting little tense. Could be cold rain instead of snow for Christmas. 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

I'm calling it a day at day 5, there's always uncertainty but this next fortnight will be all over the place, not to mention the stakes of Christmas as well. 

For my own sanity, I'm taking small steps as the evolution plays out. A Christmas goose chase is not what I need or want! (although eating one wouldn't go amiss)

This coming weekend it's eyes of that Atlantic low and how it behaves with the Northwestern edges of our current HP. If it backs west or stalls it'll allow heights to establish towards Iceland where we'll then look at what that Norwegian Sea low does and how it interacts with any heights pushing into Scandi. And of course always keeping an eye on the Med hoping heights remain lower there. 

All the best (y)

Edited by Bradley in Kent
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
On 16/12/2021 at 18:31, Snowman. said:

Think the booms are a little premature here… still could go very wrong very quickly and those closer to the SE it’s getting little tense. Could be cold rain instead of snow for Christmas. 

The 144 chart is that great for most to be fair not sure it’s worth the boom

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
3 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Gut feeling is the snow boundary maybe be midlands north on this run, hope I am proven wrong when the next frame comes out

Not having a go but does it matter at this range its going to be a long week as it is without worrying about where it could snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

168...

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.c6a89c087cdb99882e3cc9b70b64e1d3.gifECH0-168.thumb.gif.aed67db8e0a50f0d8d889b040af97f67.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
On 16/12/2021 at 18:31, Snowman. said:

Think the booms are a little premature here… still could go very wrong very quickly and those closer to the SE it’s getting little tense. Could be cold rain instead of snow for Christmas. 

Maybe for you if you’re by the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Think the booms are a little premature here… still could go very wrong very quickly and those closer to the SE it’s getting little tense. Could be cold rain instead of snow for Christmas. 

I don’t think so - set up for another boom at 192 I hope 

42BEC0CA-3E24-4CE4-AA6B-FA2339455255.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Cold delayed @168. The jet not playing ball here!!!- see where were at nxt frame!

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

Apart from the specifics it really is worth just taking a step back and looking at the overall synoptics.

I don't think I have ever seen an easterly run for so many thousands of miles across the northern hemisphere as this. It's absolutely gobsmacking:

1139017519_Screenshot2021-12-16at18_35_59.thumb.png.57b7a75252cceb0aeb2d3e6e662e677a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

You want a GFS and ECM blend at 168. GFS with the better heights speeding SE for a better chance of adverting cold and the ECM with a better Atlantic profile. 
 

Either nothing catastrophic. But caution is advised and this is an all white and snowy picture or very cold rain as someone north of you gets buried. 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Very good, but it was talked about here too - all that talk about high risk high reward, that equates exactly to an Atlantic incursion that makes it , well, how far, does it go under, battleground etc. or does it win out? and that is where we are now.  

Hopefully, ECM calms the nerves in an hours time!

  Sorry to say not many did say high risk hi broad many many hope casting went on here saying high pressure will last two weeks and more talk about inversion called frost and fog Even snow was talked about I see from yesterday Exeter does mention some snow and rain in the forecast to

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Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Literally a week away. Relax about the uppers. 

Im very relaxed, im just talking about what this run is showing, not what I think it will be showing when the day comes. Thats the whole point of this thread, to discuss what is currently being shown

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Literally a week away. Relax about the uppers. 

Uppers won’t change unless the systems do. 
 

High risk high reward scenario. Many have the right to be anxious. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
On 16/12/2021 at 18:39, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks good for the midlands for a white Christmas.

Yes on this run ?‍♂️ 1 of very many to yet be deciphered! We have the overall format/ blocking preety nailed.. but cold advecting air placements are needle in hay stacks at this point!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, IW Met said:

I do think so, those uppers are pretty poor for southern parts. image.thumb.png.a461dce31489c45f2f17d569f5bf7f23.png

 

2 minutes ago, IW Met said:

I do think so, those uppers are pretty poor for southern parts. image.thumb.png.a461dce31489c45f2f17d569f5bf7f23.png

You have little faith , it’ll be fine 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The ECM looks poor to me, everything is too far north. 

 

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