Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Paul]

A fresh thread and a slight change in theme ready for the 12z's this afternoon. 

As the thread is now hunt for cold themed, some more banter is ok, but the theme of the thread is still model discussion so please bear that in mind and don't allow the thread to go off on a tangent for any length of time.

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If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment

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If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion:
 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment
(This thread was the short range model discussion). 

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You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a  post which you think would work well for both. 

As ever, please keep it friendly - and follow the guiding principles detailed in the message above. 

Thank you, and happy cold hunting!

 

[Ali1977]

Can we just not comment on the ICON  
Big runs coming now, things can still fall apart but I feel a good set of runs this afternoon and we should be safe for a decent cold spell at least!!
Oh noMETO has set the scene !!  Some wording change here I think!! 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[Midlander]

ICON 12Z further north with the cold air, 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yep, too far North on the ICON and not even Scotland is getting snow on Christmas day. Let's be honest, it's model fodder 99% of the time. 

One of the issues we have is that Western Europe is not cold. A SE off the continent will not be of much help given the 850s, really need the front to slow or go so far south we pull in a NE wind. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite

[Lukesluckybunch]

did mention it being further north,negative start 12z

[Frosty.]

Well, what can I say.. …the GEFS / ECMWF mean is trending colder from the N / NE in the mid range which is potentially great news for Christmas,  how cold?, how wintry is for nearer the time…anyway, Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat, the mean is trending colder..I’m more than happy with that!   ️  

[sheikhy]

Why we pay attention to the icon is beyond me!!!yeh i know why because its the first of the crappy models to come out!!!!theres a reason i dont comment on it and no its not cos its not showing what i want!!!its cos its a rubbish model!!a lot of my peeps would save themselves a lot of frustration if they just wait for the 12z gfs to come out first and take it from there!!!i get it its easier said than done but we gota resist sometimes!!!its a cannon fodder model and not in the same league as the crappy GEM let alone gfs lol!!!

[london-snow]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

did mention it being further north,negative start 12z

Well done you are a absolute genius

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Can we just not comment on the ICON  
Big runs coming now, things can still fall apart but I feel a good set of runs this afternoon and we should be safe for a decent cold spell at least!!
Oh noMETO has set the scene !!  Some wording change here I think!! 

The longer range forecast is not too shabby though  

The 12z ICON is not what we want but unless the rest of the 'big guns' follow suit I'm not too concerned.

Fingers crossed for further improvements on the GFS and UKMO from this morning's runs for us coldies!

[Lukesluckybunch]

come on gfs deliver the goods!

[swfc]

Just now, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

The longer range forecast is not too shabby though  

The 12z ICON is not what we want but unless the rest of the 'big guns' follow suit I'm not too concerned.

Fingers crossed for further improvements on the GFS and UKMO from this morning's runs for us coldies!

It's very fluid given the strength of the block. Still many changes to come both ways

[Ali1977]

Arpege at 102

[Methuselah]

It's never too late for a few words of caution:     

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege at 102

oh no!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Arpege at 102

That is terrible dont care how good the synoptice are!!thats basically ukmo from this morning with the shortwave going west to the north of us!!!for me this could probably be decided this evening!!!

[Winter Hill]

Heights over Iberia becoming a player 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

That is terrible dont care how good the synoptice are!!thats basically ukmo from this morning with the shortwave going west to the north of us!!!for me this could probably be decided this evening!!!

but isnt this model regarded as very bad also?

[sheikhy]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

but isnt this model regarded as very bad also?

Yup and i was just gona mention that!!!alryyt tool for an earlier timeframe!!but this is where we need the gfs and ukmo to step up!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Yup and i was just gona mention that!!!alryyt tool for an earlier timeframe!!but this is where we need the gfs and ukmo to step up!!

absolutley we do,next 30 mins to reveal a lot!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Paul excellent idea with the theme for the new thread...very good spirited if I may say.

@Ali1977 that update contradicts itself if you read the 1st part...milder to the South,before ending with rather cold and settled! And the bigger picture has not changed moving further forward!

I don't think for 1 minute the 12s are gonna nail this down...it looks like a Battleground type scenario towards Xmas with a front moving in...we've seen these grind to a halt and even be 100miles out more than once. Well we very often came across those scenarios back in the 80s...and that's what we need to be looking at if this winter is to shape up going on the teleconnections that it could be.

Icon not great...but let's be honest it may have had a couple shots at fame in years..perhaps 1st to pick up 2018s beast..not sure on that though..And secondly the failed 2019 Estly spell...when all other models followed it....can't think its done much else since then tbh!

Regardless of the runs through this evening things are far from sorted for the Xmas period...could be Tuesday or Wednesday next week tbh.

And unless mushy or John come on later or Sunday to say noaa have backtracked big time,which at this stage I would say unlikely) all good in the good as far as this geezer is concerned.

Edited December 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

Wow, this thread’s been open for 15 minutes and it is already carnage in here!  . Let’s wait to see what GFS and UKMO throw out!

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Wow, this thread’s been open for 15 minutes and it is already carnage in here!  . Let’s wait to see what GFS and UKMO throw out!

Mate theres gona be even more carnage in 20 mins good or bad!!!!get ready!!!

[bluearmy]

‘Although it wouldn’t really mean a great deal, it would be nice to see Ukmo day 4/5 strengthen the ridge ahead of the trough and therefore disrupt it somewhat days 5/6 (and to absorb that shortwave into the scandi trough) 

would be a decent day to have all the ops on the same page for wed through Friday at least. (Assuming that’s good for a widespread white Xmas !) 

Edited 1 hour ago by bluearmy’
 

My horse fell at the first fence! 

[frosty ground]

Yesterdays GFS 12z was certainly into something let’s see if todays can improve

[Winter Hill]

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but isnt this model regarded as very bad also?

Only if it does not show what people want to see. 
If it showed a raging easterly, It would be regarded as a good model. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Winter Hill