Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but isnt this model regarded as very bad also?

Depends if it’s showing cold 

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

come on gfs deliver the goods!

if one model is alone against the others then I think I’m not going to choose gfs! 
 

the model which has patently failed to play on this the game is Ukmo - could do with a better run from that - not holding my breath …..

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Only if it does not show what people want to see. 
If it showed a raging easterly, It would be regarded at a good model. 

The icon is a short range precipitation model. It is not specialized on medium range.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Only if it does not show what people want to see. 
If it showed a raging easterly, It would be regarded at a good model. 

You know the forum rules! 

I think of the ICON et al as the warm up acts.  They have been dreadful. 

Will the headliners follow suit?

[Ali1977]

That shortwave is detaching I see 

[Winter Hill]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The icon is a short range precipitation model. It is not specialized on medium range.

Hi pal. 
I was talking about the Arpege. 

[Day 10]

No footy on, so popcorn at the ready. Going to sit back and watch the drama unfold in here instead, should be good.

My advice would be assess everything after the ECM.

[Ali1977]

UKMO at T96 looks ok I think 

[blizzard81]

What I have noticed over the last few years is that whereas it used to be gfs that teased cold UK lovers, ecm has taken over that mantle. Sometimes whole ecm suites show wintry nirvana but to no avail. Worth bearing this in mind at all times. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Winter Hill said:

Hi pal. 
I was talking about the Arpege. 

Same applied to Arpege tho it tends to have improved handling of broader scale.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T96 v GFS 6z T102:

We are looking for the UKMO absorbing the Norwegian shortwave into the general vortex lobe here.  It looks weaker, and you can argue the earlier GFS had it stronger, but something about the way it still ‘sticks out’ on UKMO bothers me.  

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at T96 looks ok I think 

looks ok atlantic but shortwave looks crap to the ne - surely a big fail this run.

[Lukesluckybunch]

already at 96h UKMO looks iffy! and totally different to this mornings

[iowpompeylee]

Anyone with a nervous disposition I recommend a night off model watching tonight, I can sense which way this is going! 

[Met4Cast]

Much better UKMO 140hrs. That’s more like it!

[Ali1977]

Well that looks much better than I thought at 120, UKMO 

[Johnp]

Awesome UKMO!

Edited December 18, 2021 by Johnp

[bluearmy]

It’s not too late to see a sudden shift to a very different output for the end of the week …… that would be fun!  (Or not ) 

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO 144...

144 12z vs 144 00z

SW low further SE.

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Allseasons-si
Added info

[sheikhy]

Ukmo u frikkin beauty!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

wow wow wow!!! UKMO

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T120 v GFS 6z T126:

Ironically it now looks better - separation of the lows and the Atlantic one looks weaker - maybe something to do with the high not looking quite as far north on this one.

Edit:  I’m playing catch up here, excellent T144:

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Kasim Awan]

The problem here is people are over worrying about the sniff of milder air to the south west before we drag in the colder air. That was always due & has little bearing on the eventual cold digging in from the ENE.

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Well that looks much better than I thought at 120, UKMO 

Also the heights over Iberia look to be retreating.

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 144.  Very very good I would say, a few nudges here and there and we could be in excellent shape!

[Johnp]

Can people now please stop worrying what is showing at 96hrs - the models continue to make mugs out of us!