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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This time on Monday we had  generated at least a page on the icon model as the warm up act..  3 days later we wander into solar spots and climate change.. a broad remit... Be this thread

Nothing on the Icon worth mentioning.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
18 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It is certainly the case that in the blink of an eye heights over the arctic would appear to be bleeding away. On 11th Dec the sun was spotless. We now have 9 active regions with over 40 spots. Decent spike. Correlation however does not necessarily equal cause.

Indeed, but one other thing occurred to me. There is currently a disconnect between the Strat and the Trop and somehow this increase in solar energy has passed through the Strat and into the Trop to completely reverse our expected weather pattern whilst not impacting the Strat? 

More research needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

At a Solar Max, which we are certainly not in at this time, the entire planet gains 0.1% more solar energy. That is what we are talking about. I have not read a study that suggests otherwise. The ENSO is far more impactful on the earth climate. It really is too much this. Consider intelligent scientists over the last 400 years have not added this apparent obvious and recorded activity into their research as it should be very evident as a driver, it isn't.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
8 minutes ago, Downburst said:

At a Solar Max, which we are certainly not in at this time, the entire planet gains 0.1% more solar energy. That is what we are talking about. I have not read a study that suggests otherwise. The ENSO is far more impactful on the earth climate. It really is too much this. Consider intelligent scientists over the last 400 years have not added this apparent obvious and recorded activity into their research as it should be very evident as a driver, it isn't.

Earth receives 7% more solar energy in January than in July.  The solar cycle has a limited impact on our climate (and almost certainly wouldn't impact the troposphere without impacting the stratosphere too).

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire


With little forcing in our part of the northern hemisphere, no raging PV over Greenland, and relatively high pressure to our north, along with cold Arctic air bottled up over northern Scandinavia. 

The only glimmer of hope would be the Atlantic low and Iberian ridge could do us a favour and work together to amplify the pattern sucking that ridge north resulting in the mother of all easterlies  

Hopeful and unlikely, probably, but worth watching, why not

F8953166-F961-41C7-92B7-6C5F8B4E54E1.thumb.jpeg.3858f174a0184934236a9a4a4a45dd79.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

@Singularityanswered this question very well a few pages back *and very much a similar message I repeat many times). The MJO is one component of the global wind-flow budget (a very important one) - but the extra - tropical circulation also has to be considered to get a fuller picture of the overall tropospheric circulation and how in turn this affects the relationship within the stratosphere

As far as I am concerned the tropical MJO and extratropical GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) have produced a' harmonious' wind-flow signal based on amplified rossby wave propagation from the tropics to extra tropics and created a profile for deceleration of zonal winds between 50N and 60N. Hence the presence of the wedged heights circa Iceland to Greenland, following on from the mid latitude block close to the UK. However, the impression among the disappointed within this forum that the diagnostics 'doesn't work'is not just down to the need to fit the diagnostic to one favoured outcome and which obscures that the synoptic response has actually been a close match in terms of height anomalies and placements (notwithstanding the failure for strong enough and sustained enough cold air advection to deliver the weather that UK members want to see). Its also to do with the following:

1) Insufficient cold air close by to the UK to tap straight into and create a stronger dense profile of cold air - hence harder to get enough negative tilt on low pressure areas to disrupt for the greater part of what is a small geographical area (the UK) within a large Northern Hemisphere, let alone island within a large continental landmass one side and a vast ocean the other. Precise geographical alignment is required at the outset to direct this to a small island, notwithstanding 2) which is most relevant of all

2) However another take-away, and really the more important one that looks set to facilitate the lifting out of cold air trying to advect southwards across the UK without too much resistance is the solar uptick/ -ve  (easterly) QBO interface helping to weaken the burgeoning heights over the Arctic and hence the blocking structures towards Iceland retrograding towards Greenland have been made weaker than they otherwise might have been.

At the same as the polar cell is weakened, a boost to the Hadley cell occurs and subsequent expansion of sub tropical riding. The interest, which I have repeated looking ahead, is whether the adjustments occurring within the Pacific to alter the rossby wavelength feedbacks and hence keep an unstable GSDM profile (which adds further amplification into the atmospheric circulation) can override the ongoing dampening down of blocking structures trying to establish further poleward as further momentum transport occurs, or whether the countervailing equatorward processes prove stronger than this and instead sustain strong sub tropical ridges amidst the backdrop of the lowering of pressure in the middle and upper layers.

Its very much one set of forcing coming up against an opposite set of forcing and really quite fine margins between a strong Hadley cell and weaker polar cell or vice versa,  weakened sub tropical forcing and increased propensity for momentum transport to migrate anticyclonic wave-breaking to higher latitudes. In this respect a floor to angular momentum is required additionally through active tropical convection sustaining deeper into the winter- as collapsing AAM entails greater polar jet strength which would add further weight and attritional forcing to the solar uptick/-ve QBO forcing lowering pressure at higher latitudes.

Its not straightforward one way or the other. Equally, the -ve QBO, on the basis that the solar uptick is not sustained could on the other hand dovetail with buoyant tropical convection and lead to the opposite regime and evidence of other winters with similar parallels to now has seen January and into February have quite different blocking structures to the ones advertised for the end of 2021 and into 2022. I am happy with the current evolution and some further balmy warmth down here in Portugal, but from a weather pattern point of view and suspending personal preference, it is also very interesting to see how these conflicting tropospheric/stratospheric factors play out and which gains an upper hand over the extended period.

Thanks Tamara, that's helped build my understanding. I do get that MJO is not a magic wand. 

My question is more around how I've seen people use MJO as a forecasting tool. I often see monthly composites posted with a single MJO phase assigned to a month. But If the speed of orbit is relevant then full month single phase composites can't be all that useful.

On typing this, I think the gap in my knowledge is how those composites are actually produced. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

So yeh sunspots maybe causing problems at the moment,but it's only 1 link in a very long chain..and in all honesty it's got as much chance as affecting the weather on planet Mars..

 

The atmosphere being much thinner on Mars does help that a bit, there are many forces at work here, good luck to any forecaster trying to look at all of them 

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For all the talk of solar activity in here, I was starting to wonder if it still exists. haven't seen hide nor hair of it for getting on for a week! At this rate  I may have to start popping the old vitamin D pills or I could end up with Rickitts!

image.thumb.png.fe3a1d79976520b463e32a3f9e7b54c2.png Someone may get a lucky  window  of opportunity  with a slack Easterly and favourable dew points during transition period on the big day!

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