Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Ali1977]

Booom - where did that come from 

[Kentspur]

Well whatever the shorter range models show good old CFS has flipped more than a wet kipper lately but it currently shows what many of us southern softies&eastenders want from Christmas onwards

Edited December 18, 2021 by Kentspur

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO day 5

 

Yesterdays day 6

 

Approaches from both east and west slower, as such the Atlantic low still hasn’t begun to phase with the Scandinavian trout. (Trough - it’s been a long year )

Todays day 6

Easterly winds across the Midlands northwards.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Captain Shortwave
There’s no point editing out that typo!!!

[swfc]

Everyone OK now iii 

Edited December 18, 2021 by swfc

[feb1991blizzard]

i called that ukmo badly wrong, whilst it still looks difficult to get a screaming E'ly anytime soon after, that could have been a curtains run by 144, so a heck of a lot better than it could have been.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looks further South and a better run if you ask me.

Know need to panic folks..im walking round sainsburys for next week's dinner.. and judging by the prices I could well be having road kill for Xmas lunch..

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Anyone with a nervous disposition I recommend a night off model watching tonight, I can sense which way this is going! 

You peeked to soon

[ghoneym]

Just a quick point on the ARPEGE.  It's designed, built and maintained by the same team on the ECMWF programme.  It's a global scale model and not to be dismissed lightly. The AROME and ALADIN regional scale models base use AROME data first and foremost.  It's showing an potential option at this stage, like all the others.

[Met4Cast]

GFS once again.. in the bin as it blows up the low. 

It’ll be Christmas eve by the time that model begins to smell the coffee. 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Looks further South and a better run if you ask me.

Know need to panic folks..im walking round sainsburys for next week's dinner.. and judging by the prices I could well be having road kill for Xmas lunch..

Whilst you're at it get yourself some table salt for car - & I'd recommend nipping to decathlon for thermal gear & b&q for a shovel..

Edited December 18, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Summerstorm]

Just at 96 hours and the GFS already has the low 10mbs lower than the UKMO. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Summerstorm

[mountain shadow]

12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

already at 96h UKMO looks iffy! and totally different to this mornings

The peril of calling a run to early.

[steveinsussex]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Booom - where did that come from 

Computer models 

[tight isobar]

Exactly what we wanted- and even the west based greeny format does ya a favour- the Norwegian shortwave being modelled as much less dramatic, and morphing- the Atlantic based on upper latitude mentioned.. should play ball by evolution , good stuff 

[Durham Weather]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The problem here is people are over worrying about the sniff of milder air to the south west before we drag in the colder air. That was always due & has little bearing on the eventual cold digging in from the ENE.

It might add a little extra moisture to the mix though, which may help with precipitation. 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO day 5

Yesterdays day 6

Approaches from both east and west slower, as such the Atlantic low still hasn’t begun to phase with the Scandinavian trout.

Todays day 6

Easterly winds across the Midlands northwards.

Looks a bit fishy to me …..

Edited December 18, 2021 by bluearmy

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Just at 96 hours and the GFS has the low 10mbs lower than the UKMO. 

No surprise - classic GFS

[Ice Day]

UKMO v GFS at 120.  Enough differences to call anything after FI

  

[TSNWK]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Exactly what we wanted- and even the west based greeny format does ya a favour- the Norwegian shortwave being modelled as much less dramatic, and morphing- the Atlantic based on upper latitude mentioned.. should play ball by evolution , good stuff 

You sure? 12 hours and the low out west ballooning round and is tad further north.. annoying as the Norwegian low was playing ball I felt and being absorbed 

[Ali1977]

Looks like it could go same as the last run, might be v good!!

[Mike Poole]

Think it is going to slide at T132 anyway;

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs 12z is fine. Carbon copy of 06z at 138h.

[MJB]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

wow wow wow!!! UKMO

So it isn't iffy lol 

[Lukesluckybunch]

gfs looking good also at 138

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, MJB said:

So it isn't iffy lol 

lol no sorry