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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO temps at 144, cold creeping in for Xmas eve

UN144-7 (21).gif

Me being picky and a romantic, would love this to shift south a bit more for a real seasonal Xmas  

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

BOOM 

gfs-0-180 (16).png

Still need it further south for the southern contingent - we are not all lucky enough to live 400m up!

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where have all the heights towards Greenland gone on this run? Something of concern?
image.thumb.png.1e100530303aef1e7498a429e2dc9ef7.png

The ridge behind the second low should sort that problem out if events were to transpire this way. Knowing the GFS though it'll just blow another low off the Eastern Seaboard.

 

gfseu-0-204.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where have all the heights towards Greenland gone on this run? Something of concern?
image.thumb.png.1e100530303aef1e7498a429e2dc9ef7.png

Good question, and my response could be complete nonsense!  But here goes:

Given the meridional flow and lack of Atlantic for a year now, what I think we have seen developing here over recent days is a weak block against a weak jet stream (for the time of year).  The heights over Greenland have never been orange, but they have been there nonetheless.  It is a very interesting scenario.  But could it descend into a kind of super-wedge controlling our weather?  Like Jan 2013 only much more significant.  I’d say it was a possibility.  

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Can ya imagine- the potential snow depth in a rounded24 hr period if this falls as modelled!!!!!!!!!   

CD725779-FF44-41C7-BA9E-E7E5366F47A6.png

44E6C035-AE39-479D-9108-333BF1EB80A4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, Summerstorm said:

The ridge behind the second low should sort that problem out if events were to transpire this way. 

 

gfseu-0-204.png

Yep..  nice call and just starting to build back now.

this is very nice chart. Should be all Garvey from now for us all on this run

image.thumb.png.2817816f0d3b91efaab88046163df3ce.png

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Can ya imagine- the potential snow depth in a rounded24 hr period if this falls as modelled!!!!!!!!!   

CD725779-FF44-41C7-BA9E-E7E5366F47A6.png

44E6C035-AE39-479D-9108-333BF1EB80A4.png

As I said above, around 0cm and 50mm of rain here. I know this is IMBYism, but for those not in the know who live in the south, these charts just show a cold wash out atm.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GEFS mean at 114 looks good

88298582-E3B0-4864-B5BF-77205E5AB39E.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

As I said above, around 0cm and 50mm of rain here. I know this is IMBYism, but for those not in the know who live in the south, these charts just show a cold wash out atm.

Visit meteocial- and run ?‍♂️ through the proposed 850s ... nothing apart from perhaps the extreme coastal line.. would be rain !!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Nice 12z GFS that a little adjustment of 100 miles has to be within the envelope for Christmas snow in the south and certainly beyond.. for our northern members it’s looking darn good from Christmas Day..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Visit meteocial- and run ?‍♂️ through the proposed 850s ... nothing apart from perhaps the extreme coastal line.. would be rain !!!!!

I have - snow is unlikely south of the Midlands up until very late boxing day.

The 3rd system which comes through, would be snow for all though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

Going for a N/NE at Day 10 with a Channel Low running across the South giving the goods for those complaining not sure about the moans with this run should give some snow to most people. 

 

gfseu-0-240.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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