Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[nick sussex]

Still don’t like what the UKMO does with that shortwave .

Regardless of its okay day 6 , you never want to see energy phasing with an incoming low when you’re trying to get the negative tilt and some trough disruption .

[Scandinavian High.]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Away from Scotland - nothing relevant 

Very confusing on here sometimes 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

T210 and we’re ALL done and dusted (to coin a phrase):

Nothing marginal for most of the country on that.  

This is what we need to see the model adjust too for Christmas day. 

Highlights that it wouldn't take too many southern corrections. 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem v UKMO at 120

[That ECM]

South of the m27 event.

 

 

[Ali1977]

GEM at 126 looks good 

[Coxxy657]

Just now, That ECM said:

South of the m27 event.

 

 

Perfect for me lol

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Last 2 posts from TI and BA seem contradictory 

BA is correct tbh. Nothing widespread across UK at said time and 260hrs gfs 12 z

Edited December 18, 2021 by swfc

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The heights connecting out west south of Greenland is extremely rare & could send us into something remarkable

Can you recall a similar situation in the past, Kasim, I can’t but would like to compare the charts if there is one?  

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still don’t like what the UKMO does with that shortwave .

Regardless of its okay day 6 , you never want to see energy phasing with an incoming low when you’re trying to get the negative tilt and some trough disruption .

That put the willies up me earlier in the run, Nick, but it is against all other models and seems to be weakening compared to earlier UKMO runs.  

[MJB]

Virtually impossible to call where snow will at the best of times , in a situation like this ..........................keep tossing that coin 

[TSNWK]

And that is what is known as locked in.. or maybe we should say frozen in…day 11 but stuff it.. 

[nick sussex]

The UKMO also develops another shortwave to the ne by day 6 . 

Overall I think we need rid of its output which seems to be obsessed with complications.

So goodbye and good riddance to it , come back when you’re in a festive mood! 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS due to the differences that others have listed gives very little until after Boxing Day for the south. Wintry showers for the northern areas.

The UKMO has the cold air pushing south evening by Christmas Eve, need to wait for the day 7 chart to see where the boundary is.

GEM is interesting as you can see secondary lows splitting of the parent Atlantic system.

The 0c isotherm goes essentially through the middle of it. Not sure if the surface temperatures are sufficient for wintry precipitation just yet on the associated frontal system.

 

Moving on, given the background signals and the general direction of the model output, it does look plausible that we could see another Atlantic ridge try to build into week 2 that could help to reinforce the Scandi trough and the subsequent cold conditions over the U.K beyond Christmas.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Ice Day]

Well, the GFS is going on its merry way and is it heading towards a cross polar flow at 264?

The GEM is also looking good at 138

 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Virtually impossible to call where snow will at the best of times , in a situation like this ..........................keep tossing that coin 

Or better still wait for the reliable time frame. God strewth what on earth are you  talking about knocker

Edited December 18, 2021 by knocker

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO also develops another shortwave to the ne by day 6 . 

Overall I think we need rid of its output which seems to be obsessed with complications.

So goodbye and good riddance to it , come back when you’re in a festive mood! 

How can you complain about that UKMO run? Blimey. 

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I have - snow is unlikely south of the Midlands up until very late boxing day.

The 3rd system which comes through, would be snow for all though. 

Quote: why I said Boxing Day onward initially!. And tbh- Xmas eve/day by no way a done deal.. fading maybe, but a bounce bk on that more than feasible

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Can we just not comment on the ICON  
Big runs coming now, things can still fall apart but I feel a good set of runs this afternoon and we should be safe for a decent cold spell at least!!
Oh noMETO has set the scene !!  Some wording change here I think!! 

Yep there is a back peddle going on there!

[Kasim Awan]

GEM is an absolute corker by xmas eve looks primed to bring in core of -12 uppers.

[Ice Day]

How about this for a chart at 288.  Imagine if this came off (it wont!)

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF but bloody Nora,...check out that NH profile,...a lock in,...to cold.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO also develops another shortwave to the ne by day 6 . 

Overall I think we need rid of its output which seems to be obsessed with complications.

So goodbye and good riddance to it , come back when you’re in a festive mood! 

but i think it looked good overall?

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Last 2 posts from TI and BA seem contradictory 

 

12 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Very confusing on here sometimes 

I’m looking at the actual gfs run 

TI is looking at the general possible picture of runners into the base of the trough 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Is a whiff of 62/63 on the later GFS charts. The NH profile is very unusual!

[sheikhy]

Just want the snowy ecm to come out now then i can finally just enjoy my evening!!