January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981)

bold type -- warmest 13 italic type middle 15 and underlined type coldest 13. 

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

 7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
 7.4
 7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
 6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008.)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875, 2020)
 6.3 ... tied seventeenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... nineteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... twentieth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... three tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
 5.9 ... four tied for 24th warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
 5.8 ... three tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
 5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 31st warmest)
 5.6 ..
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002
 5.4 .. 2012, 2016
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 1998, 2004
 5.1 ..

 5.0 ..
 4.9 .. 1981, 2000
 4.8 .. 1995

 4.7 .. --- average 1991-2020 --- ... --- average 2001-2020 --- ... ---average 1992-2021 ---

... ... this has been the 30-yr average since 1988-2017

 4.6 ..  was the 30-yr average 1986-2015 and 1987-2016. ... --- average 2001-2021 ---

 4.5 .. 2003

 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
 4.3 .. 1996, 2006
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
 4.1 ..

 4.0 .. 2017, 2019
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- and also 1984
 3.7 .. 1992, 2011
 3.6 ...
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70)
 3.4 ..
 3.3 .. --- average 1659-2021 (3.28) ----- and also 1991
 3.2 .. 2001

 3.1 .. 2021 ... --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- and also 2009
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
 2.8 ..
 2.7
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 ---- and also 1982
 2.5 .. 1997
 2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 ..
 2.2 ..
 2.1 ..

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
 1.9 ..
 1.8 ..
 1.7 ...
 1.6 ...
 1.5 ...
 1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
 1.3 ...
 1.2 ...
 1.1 ...
 1.0 ...
 0.9 ...
 0.8 ... coldest past 35 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
 0.7 ...
 0.6 ...
 0.5 ...
 0.4 ...
 0.3 ...
 0.2 ...
 0.1 ...
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean since Dec 1981 (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 154 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the second coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)
..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.5 was marginally colder, Feb 1895 also below -8 C.,

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Friday, 31 December (2021) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2022. 

 

(Optional) EWP forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

146.0 .. 2021

 95.8 .. --- average 1992-2021 ---

 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.7 _ average of all data 1766 to 2021

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest while 2021 (146.0 mm) was 12th wettest. Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 1987 with 33.9 mm, and 2006 with 31.9 mm. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2022, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. 

__ Good luck !! __ 

[Bobd29]

Hi 4.7C and 91mm for me please.

[Bobd29]

Just now, Bobd29 said:

Hi 4.7C and 91mm for me please.

Sorry should have been 4.1C.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Bang on 4*C please, and 70mm of rain and snow. Tar!

See it being quite a chilly one, but still with some milder outbreaks at times.

[Summer8906]

5.2C and 130mm.

Bit of a 'hedge your bets' as opinions, and models, are currently split between something very mild and something colder.

I'm anticipating something rather like 1994, 1998 or 2004 on balance. Perhaps, like 1994 or 2004, predominantly mild and wet, but with one or two short and potent perhaps snowy spells. Or, a 1998-style two-thirds mild and wet, one third cold and dry setup. Expecting February to be drier.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Atlantic to dominate, probably few named storms too, flooding!

7.3C, 140mm

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Atlantic to dominate, probably few named storms too, flooding!

7.3C, 140mm

Blimey IRA...your thinking it’s still bonfire night ain’t ya   

[Frigid]

Very mild and wet. 6.1C and 135mm please

[Polar Gael]

7.0°C and 142.8mm for me please. 

[SteveB]

6.4c and 178mm please.

[JeffC]

3.9C and 95mm please

[feb1991blizzard]

6.2 and 115mm please - no sign of an SSW.

[Summer Sun]

6.3c for me please

[Weather26]

6.4C and 100mm please.

[The PIT]

Looking like a zonal month so 6C and 65mm of rain.

[syed2878]

For me January is temperature set will be 7.1c very wet month I think it will be to 145mm rain thank you

[Shillitocettwo]

  A December 2015 of Januaries with a near constant feed of way too mild air with very little in the way of cold. A record breaking 9.1.C and 148mm

[emmett garland]

5.8oc and 132mm please

[Summer18]

6.1C & 170mm, grim stuff 

[rwtwm]

Two months in row I've gambled that we'll spend more time on the south side of an amplified jet stream than otherwise.

I've learned my lesson. 

6.5c and 127mm please.

[virtualsphere]

4.4C and 87mm please 

[Dancerwithwings]

5.5c & 98mm.... cheers

[Weather-history]

New Year's Days with CET daily means of 8.0 and greater

1810: 8.7

1824: 8.1

1825: 9.7

1840: 9.3

1851: 10.8

1853: 8.6

1855: 8.1

1860: 8.7

1880: 9.6

1883: 9.6

1886: 8.9

1896: 8.6

1916: 10.5

1917: 10.4

1921: 9.0

1935: 9.5

1937: 8.3

1960: 9.5

1988: 9.3

2012: 9.8

2019: 8.0

Edited December 28, 2021 by Weather-history

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5.3c and 118mm.  

‘Westerly’ dominance.  Mild, colder 4-10/6-12 average /mild then major storm (nw/n severe gales back end of month).

 BFTP

[Freeze]

4.4c and 70mm.