January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[feb1991blizzard]

Lowering my EWP to 97mm rainfall please - CET left unchanged.

[noname_weather]

5.4C and 81mm

[NeilN]

4.7 and 88mm please. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Going for another mild and wet month with the jet stream too strong for any meaningful cold spells - 5.3c and 115mm.

[Don]

6.1C and 130mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

5.9c please

[Roger J Smith]

3.3 and 67.2 mm ... quite variable first half around 5.0-5.5 by 20th then much colder with snow likely near end of the month. Could be similar to Jan 1895 with the setup for severe cold to follow in early Feb. 

[summer blizzard]

5.0C, 90mm.

[J10]

5.1c and 100mm

Edited December 31, 2021 by J10

[Godber 1]

3.6c and 72mm please. 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for January 2022

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ______________CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

9.1 _ 148.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 14 ) ______________________5.4 _ 105.0 _ Reef ( 33 ) ________________

7.4 _ 140.0 _ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 4 ) ___________ 5.4 __ 81.0 _ noname_weather ( 47 ) __

7.1 _ 145.0 _ syed2878 ( 13 ) __________________________ 5.3 _ 118.0 _ Blast From the Past ( 20 )_

7.0 _ 142.8 _ Polar Gael ( 6 ) ___________________________5.3 __ 95.0 _ Stargazer ( 28 ) ____________

6.6 _ 100.0 _ Ed Stone ( 22 ) ___________________________5.3 _ 115.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 48 )_

6.6 _ 130.0 _ davehsug ( 45 ) __________________________5.2 _ 130.0 _ summer8906 ( 3 ) ________ 

_______________________________________________________ 5.2 _ 102.0 _ February1978 ( L1-1 ) ____

_______________________________________________________ 5.2 __ 98.0 _ Mulzy ( L1-2 ) _____________

6.5 _ 127.0 _ rwtwm ( 17 ) _____________________________5.1 _ 109.0 _ Stationary Front ( 34 ) ____

6.4 _ 178.0 _ SteveB ( 7 ) ______________________________5.1 __ 92.5 _ snowray ( 42 ) _____________

6.4 _ 100.0 _ Weather 26 ( 11 ) ________________________5.1 _ 100.0 _ J10 ( 54 ) _____

6.4 _ 110.0 _ Leo97t ( 24 ) _____________________________5.0 __ 88.0 _ stewfox ( 44 ) ______________

6.3 _ --- --- _ Summer Sun ( 10 ) _______________________5.0 __ 90.0 _ summer blizzard ( 53 ) ____

6.2 __ 97.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 9 ) ______________________ 4.9 _ --- --- _ damianslaw ( 36 ) _________

_______________________________________________________ 4.9 __ 96.0 _ seaside60 ( L1-3 ) ________

6.2 _ 105.0 _ weather-history ( 43 ) ___________________ 4.8 __ 92.0 _ Dunstable Snow ( 27 ) ____

6.1 _ 135.0 _ Frigid ( 5 ) _______________________________ 4.8 __ 110.0 _ Let It Snow! ( 38 ) ________

6.1 _ 170.0 _ Summer18 ( 16 ) _________________________4.7 __ 88.0 _ Neil N ( 48 ) _______________

6.1 _ 130.0 _ Don ( 50 ) ________________________________4.7 __ 94.2 _ average 1991-2020________

6.0 __ 65.0 _ The PIT ( 12 ) _____________________________4.6 __ 84.0 _ Kasim Awan ( 26 ) ________

6.0 __ 99.0 _ Norrance ( 23 ) ___________________________4.5 _ 115.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 30 ) ____________

6.0 _ --- --- _ Richie3846 ( 25 ) __________________________4.5 __ 80.0 _ daniel* ( 46 ) _______________

6.0 __ 84.0 _ stevew ( 32 ) _____________________________ 4.4 __ 87.0 _ virtualsphere ( 18 ) ________ 

5.9 _ --- --- _ Kentish Man ( 31 ) ________________________4.4 __ 70.0 _ Freeze ( 21 ) _______________

5.9 _ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) _________________________4.4 __ 93.0 _ average 1981-2010 ______

5.8 _ 132.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 15 ) ___________________4.1 __ 91.0 _ Bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________ 

5.8 _ 108.0 _ sundog ( 40 ) _____________________________4.0 __ 70.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 2 ) _____

5.7 __ 66.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) _______________________ 3.9 __ 95.0 _ Jeff C ( 8 ) _________________

5.6 _ 109.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 39 ) __________________ 3.6 __ 72.0 _ Godber 1 ( 55 ) ___________

5.5 __ 98.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ___________________3.3 _ 107.0 _ Jonboy ( 41 ) ______________

5.5 _ --- --- _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 35 ) _________________3.3 __ 67.2 _ Roger J Smith ( 52 ) ________

5.5 _ --- --- _ Froze were the Days ( L1-5 ) ______________3.2 _ --- --- Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) __

5.4 _ 100.0 _ consensus _______________________________2.9 __ 97.0 _ SLEETY ( 29 ) ______________

Consensus of 55 on-time forecasts, 5 additional that are one day late (60 total), is

__ 5.4 C and from 52 EWP forecasts 100 mm

===============================

EWP forecasts in order 

178_Ste ... 170_sum18 ... 148_shil ... 145_syed ... 142.8_PG ... 140_IRem ...

135_Frig ... 132_EG ... 130_sum8906, dave, Don ... 127_rwtwm ... 118_BFTP ...

115_DR(S), pSL ... 110_leo, LIS ... 109_SF, MIA ... 108_sun ... 107_jon ...

105_Reef, wx-his ... 102_Feb78^ .. 100_wx26,EdS,J10 con ... 99_Norr ... 98_dww,Mul^ ...

 97_SLE, Feb91 ... 96_sea^ ... 95_Jeff, star ...  94.1_91-20 ... 93.0_81-10 ... 92.5_snow ...

 92_Dun ... 91_bob ...  90_sb ... 88_stew,NN ... 87_virt ... 84_KA, stevew ...

 81_non ...  80_dan ... 72_godb ... 70_DRL,fre ... 67.2_RJS ... 66_MrM ... 65_PIT 

___________________

49 on-time forecasts, plus three that are one day late ^

_ consensus (median) 100.0 mm

 

LATE ENTRIES WILL BE ADDED, UNTIL FINAL DEADLINE end of Mon 3 Jan at midnight. 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith
corrected entry for Godber 1 in EWP forecasts (order of entry 55 entered instead of forecast 72)

[February1978]

Ooops, late, forgot! - Happy New Year all

5.2c & 103mm

Not quite as mild as synoptics may suggest I hope

[mulzy]

5.2C and 98m please

[seaside 60]

Dam forgot last night.

The following please.

4.9c

96mm

[Duncan McAlister]

Happy New Year all! A slightly late and hungover guess of 3.2 for me, please.

[Froze were the Days]

A bit late...I'll go for 5.5c please!

[Don]

23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

3.3 and 67.2 mm ... quite variable first half around 5.0-5.5 by 20th then much colder with snow likely near end of the month. Could be similar to Jan 1895 with the setup for severe cold to follow in early Feb. 

I think many on here would not complain if that comes of Roger! 

[Weather-history]

On 28/12/2021 at 05:48, Weather-history said:

New Year's Days with CET daily means of 8.0 and greater

1810: 8.7

1824: 8.1

1825: 9.7

1840: 9.3

1851: 10.8

1853: 8.6

1855: 8.1

1860: 8.7

1880: 9.6

1883: 9.6

1886: 8.9

1896: 8.6

1916: 10.5

1917: 10.4

1921: 9.0

1935: 9.5

1937: 8.3

1960: 9.5

1988: 9.3

2012: 9.8

2019: 8.0

I think 2022 will be top the list

[LetItSnow!]

out of interest, how many cold (say  sub 2.5) januaries have their been with exceptionally mild starts. 1917 springs to mind but no many others i can think of. 

[Weather-history]

19 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

out of interest, how many cold (say  sub 2.5) januaries have their been with exceptionally mild starts. 1917 springs to mind but no many others i can think of. 

1880 is one that comes off the top of my head

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh dear

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Frigid]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

well isn't that just great. 1st Jan warmer than the Summer Solstice. that anomaly is possibly the highest I've seen in any month 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Frigid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The CET minimum for the 1st is 11.2C, provisionally the first January with a min above 11C on record. The max for the 1st is 14.1C, also provisionally the warmest January maximum on record.
And unsurprisingly, the mean for the 1st is 12.7C,  smashing (provisionally!) the previous record of any January day of 11.6C, and the first January day above 12C.

Edited January 2, 2022 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 1st

9.1c above the 61 to 90 average
8.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 12.7c on the 1st

Edited January 2, 2022 by Summer Sun

[johncam]

A long way back to normal from there