January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with daily extremes and running CET extremes (1772-2021)

... the extremes are 1772-2021 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2021

DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum  __ extremes of running CET 01-date

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.8 (1851) ... -5.9 (1820)
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.1 (1851) ... -5.9 (1786)
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1917) ... -6.5 (1786)
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795)
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795)

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795)
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795)
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1858) ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.8 (1992) ... -3.4 (1864)

09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795, 1864)
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814)

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.6 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..-8.1 (1881) ... ...5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (1976, 2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814)
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.5 (1796, 1916) .-3.6 (1795, 1814)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795)
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814)
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795, 1814)
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.5 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)

_____________________________________________________________________________

As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 

1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ... 1814 fell back only to -2.9 C.

------------------------------------ --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------

(tracking daily CET 1991-2020) ...  First number is the daily mean, second is the running average to that date. 

 1._ 4.7 _ 4.7 _____ 11._  5.0 _ 4.8 ______ 21.  4.3 _ 4.8 _______ 31._ 4.4 _ 4.7

 2._ 4.5 _ 4.6 _____ 12._  5.2 _ 4.8 ______ 22.  3.9 _ 4.8 _______ 

 3._ 4.2 _ 4.5 _____ 13._  5.4 _ 4.9 ______ 23.  4.0 _ 4.8 _______ 

 4._ 4.2 _ 4.4 _____ 14._  5.2 _ 4.9 ______ 24.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 5._ 4.6 _ 4.4 _____ 15._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 25.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 6._ 5.0 _ 4.5 _____ 16._  5.1 _ 4.9 ______ 26.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

 7._ 4.7 _ 4.6 _____ 17._  4.7 _ 4.9 ______ 27.  4.5 _ 4.7 _______ 

 8._ 5.4 _ 4.7 _____ 18._  4.5 _ 4.9 ______ 28.  4.2 _ 4.7 _______ 

 9._ 5.1 _ 4.7 _____ 19._  4.8 _ 4.9 ______ 29.  4.4 _ 4.7 _______ 

10._ 5.1 _ 4.8 _____ 20._  4.6 _ 4.9 ______ 30.  4.1 _ 4.7 _______ 

=============================================================

[Roger J Smith]

34 minutes ago, Frigid said:

well isn't that just great. 1st Jan warmer than the Summer Solstice. that anomaly is possibly the highest I've seen in any month 

Be thankful you got this in the winter and not like we did here with the heat dome and the +15 C anomaly in what is already a hot summer climate. Our normal maximum for 30 June and 1 July is around 29 C but we had 44 to break all-time records. I think maybe 31 Oct 2014 was probably about that same amount beyond the previous extremes without looking it up I think the CET daily record had been around 14 and that day was around 17. And it wasn't a particularly weak record that was broken on that occasion. 

I also recall that in Dec 1982 long-standing records were falling by about 5 C deg in eastern North America and that happened again in Dec 2015 (on different dates). You have a longer period of record so breaking a record by 2 C is noteworthy, unless it's one of those weak ones that has managed to avoid being picked off. There's a few January records that are below 10 that seem ripe for the picking. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

41 minutes ago, Frigid said:

well isn't that just great. 1st Jan warmer than the Summer Solstice. that anomaly is possibly the highest I've seen in any month 

Comparing against say the 20th century average, the anomaly for the day is +8.7C. This is certainly the most positive daily anomaly for January and the first above +8C. However, it doesn't come close to the absolute largest daily anomaly. That goes to a rather surprising  date, April 29th in 1775. With a mean of 19.7C it's 10.8C above the 20th century average.

[Don]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

That's ridiculous! 

[Frigid]

Jan 1st 2021 provisional CET: 0.5c

Jan 1st 2022 provisional CET: 12.7c

you can't make this up 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Jan 1st 2021 provisional CET: 0.5c

Jan 1st 2022 provisional CET: 12.7c

you can't make this up 

That's a prime example of one extreme to another!  However, I wonder what the CET was for January 1st 1963 and 1979?!

Edited January 2, 2022 by Don

[Weather-history]

For 

3 minutes ago, Don said:

That's a prime example of one extreme to another!  However, I wonder what the CET was for January 1st 1963 and 1979?!

1st January 2009  was 0.1C colder than 1st January 1963 believe it or not

-0.9C to - 0.8C

[Weather-history]

The biggest surprise for me is that for such a high mean, the maximum  temperature recorded was not that "high" so to speak.  It did reach 18.7C on the 28th December 2019 , 17.2C on the 6th January 1916.

Which makes me wonder was the set-up not actually the perfect Fohn set-up? 

[crucible72]

The question is: how many months will we have to wait before we get a CET higher than 12.7c on the 1st of the month? Could the start of January be warmer than the start of next June?

[reef]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The biggest surprise for me is that for such a high mean, the maximum  temperature recorded was not that "high" so to speak.  It did reach 18.7C on the 28th December 2019 , 17.2C on the 6th January 1916.

Which makes me wonder was the set-up not actually the perfect Fohn set-up? 

Winds were more southerly rather than south-westerly - at least here. It meant the 30th, 31st and 1st reached 14.8C, 14.8C and 13.9C. If the wind was SW we'd have been looking at 16C at least.

I imagine the same is true in the fohn-prone areas that occasionally record high winter temps.

[Roger J Smith]

This is only the 16th surviving case (counting 1976 as three) of three consecutive days to set CET daily mean maximum records, assuming the provisional record for the 1st holds up. It would be the 14th event if you counted the three subsets of 1976 as one event. In either case, remove three cases and two events if your criterion is untied exclusively held records.

The others, listed in calendar year order, are:

 3-5 Feb 2004

10-12 Mar 1957

25-27 Mar 1777

28-30 Apr 1775

(hon mention to 31 May to 3 June 1947, three of four, missing 1st June)

 9-11 June 1970

28-30 June 1976 and 2-4 July 1976 (this was one seven-day stretch until 1 July 2016 created two three-day intervals instead)

also 6-8 July 1976 although two of three days were tied.

28-30 July 1948 (this was a four-day stretch until 2018 replaced 27 July 1948)

(31 July to 2 Aug 1995 was a member of this club until 31 July 2020, although its share of 31 July with 1943 made it an asterisk then)

31 Aug - 2 Sep 1906 has that asterisk also, since 1st Sep 1906 tied 1st Sep 1780

(6-9 Sep 1898 was removed from being like 31 May to 3 June 1947 when 8 Sep 2021 removed a record)

24-26 Sep 1895

28-30 Sep 2011 (with two more on 2-3 Oct after 1985 held on to 1st Oct by a small margin, so almost a six-day run)

12-14 Nov 1938 was another asterisk case as 12 Nov was tied by 1947

21-23 Nov 1947

16-19 Dec 2015

____________________________

Note that those are all three-day runs except 16-19 Dec 2015 which holds the record of four. So if we add the new three-day run, that is a total of 49 days out of 366 within these 3-4 day runs. In addition, there are 38 two-day record intervals and seven cases of two out of three, plus about half a dozen close associate cases like 26 June 1976 which is within two to four days of any of the above but not otherwise counted. This makes a total of 125 days in consecutive intervals (over one-third) and an additional twenty-four days that are within 2-4 days but not consecutive with any of them. About ten in total are tied cases. Although lone daily records with no associates remain the most likely situation, having associated records is almost as likely. 

These spells are likely to hold most of the associated maximum daily records, and a fair number of the high minima (although less of these especially in the warmer half of the year). A spell of seven days 21-27 Feb 2019 holds maximum records but only one of these generated a daily mean record. It should be noted that the spells in the 1770s have no supporting daily max or min data. That observation led me to notice also that there are only two surviving three-day consecutive record spells from any years between 1778 and 1937 inclusive (those in 1895 and 1906). So the 117 years from 1778 to 1894 did not see one, nor did the 31 years from 1907 to 1937. May 1833 and Oct 1921 within those intervals produced some of the "near miss" cases however. 

 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 2nd

7.7c above the 61 to 90 average
6.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 11.3c on the 2nd
 

[Roger J Smith]

What you would need to average 3rd-31st to get to your CET forecast:

7.0 requires 6.7 avg

6.0 requires 5.6 avg

5.0 requires 4.5 avg

4.0 requires 3.5 avg

3.0 requires 2.4 avg

other values can be estimated by taking the same differential as the closest guide point, anything in the 4's needs 0.5 lower, etc.

So while this is a very anomalous start, it doesn't really make getting to any of our actual forecast values all that big an "ask" if the synoptics develop during the month especially part two.  The current 16-day model run would suggest an average near 5 C for the period 3rd-18th so that would get the CET to about 5.6 C by then. 

The EWP doesn't look overly wet through the first half of the month, would estimate 35-45 mm by 18th. 

Liking that colder turn near the end of the 06z run, of course it may just be a fleeting moment in model quirky behaviour. 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 4th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.5 in 1948, replacing 10.3 from 1932. Before that, the record was 10.2 in 1782.  Other mild daily means include 10.1 in 1921, 10.0 in 1983, 9.9 in 1916, 9.7 in 1982 and 9.5 in 1957. 

Also noteworthy, in 1836 (8.2) the mean was 10.7 higher than the previous day, the largest increase from any day to another in January in the series and second to an increase of 11.2 on 7 Feb 1830. The largest fall from one day to another is also in 1836, 24 to 25 Nov fell by 10.3 (9.9 to -0.4). 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -9.3 in 1867. No day since has had a lower mean. Other low daily means were -7.0 in 1795, -4.5 in 1893, -3.7 in 1827, -3.5 in 1820, -3.4 in 1786, 1971 and 2010, -3.2 in 1894, -3.1 in 1864, and -3.0 in 1774. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.2  in 1916. Since then 13.0 in 1957 is highest, then since that 12.4 in 1983 and 1999 have been the warmest. Other mild days include 12.2 in 1948, 11.8 in 1921. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.7 in 1932. Other mild minimum readings were 8.8 in 1948, 8.5 in 1982, 8.4 in 1921, 8.1 in 1937 and 2013, 7.9 in 1950, 7.6 in 1983, and 7.3 in 1884. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.1 in 1894 (1867 and 1795 may have been around -5, -3). Other cold values were -1.7 (1893), -0.8 (1941), -0.7 (1971), 0.0 (2010), 0.9 (1979), 1.0 (1908), 1.2 (1943), and 1.4 (1963 and 1997), also 1.7 in 2009. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -7.2 in 1893 (although 1867 was likely around -13). Other cold minima include -6.9 in 2010, -6.0 in 1971, -5.8 in 1979, -5.1 in 2002, -4.8 in 1908, -4.7 in 1941, -4.4 in 1970, -4.2 in 1894, -4.1 in 1993, -3.9 in 1879, 1946 and 1995, and -3.8 in 2009.

The wettest 4th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.70 mm (1998), followed by 11.68 mm (1958) and 9.63 mm (1994). 

The wettest week ending 4th January (29th Dec - 4th Jan) was 61.84 mm in 1998, followed by 61.46 mm (2003), 58.87 mm (2016), 55.23 mm (1994), 54.47 mm (2014), 53.43 mm (1949), and 50.95 mm (1987).

The least amount falling in a week ending 4th January was 1.36 mm in 2019, followed by 1.43 mm in 1940, and 2.08 mm in 2009. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1867, with a very cold reading, one that gave way to very mild temperatures four days later, then back to deep cold by the 12th.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1867&maand=01&dag=04&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 4, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

10.5c to the 3rd

7.1c above the 61 to 90 average
6.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 10.5c on the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 5th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.4 in 1957, replacing 9.7 1932. Before that, the record was 9.4 in 1844.  Other mild daily means include 10.0 in 1999, and 9.3 in 1884 and 1983. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.5 in 1789. Other low daily means were -5.8 in 1894, -5.1 in 1864, -5.0 in 1893, -4.5 in 1820, -3.5 in 1979,  -3.0 in 1774 and -2.9 in 1811. The lowest since 1979 was -2.7 in 2010.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 13.3 in 1957 and 1983. Other mild days include 12.9 in 1999, 12.2 in 1992, 12.0 in 1932, and 11.7 in 2014.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.5 in 1957. Other mild minimum readings were 8.5 in 1884, 7.5 in 2013, 7.4 in 1932, and 7.3 in 1982.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -4.2 in 1894 (1789 and possibly 1864 were probably similar). Other cold values were -1.3 (1893), -0.9 (1979),  0.0 (1941), 0.3 (1971), 0.5 (1889), 0.8 (2010), 0.9 (1929), and 1.0 (1939). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.6 in 1893 (although 1789 may have been lower). Other cold minima include -7.4 in 1908, -7.3 in 1894, -7.2 in 1970, -6.2 in 2010, -6.0 in 1979, -5.7 in 1971, -4.8 in 1941, -4.7 in 1879, -4.6 in 1965, -4.5 in 1953, and -4.3 in 2003.

The wettest 5th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 13.02 mm (1932), followed by 12.07 mm (1951), 10.79 mm (1937), 10.72 mm (2014),  and 10.33 mm (1961). 

The wettest week ending 5th January (30th Dec - 5th Jan) was 67.04 mm in 1998, followed by 63.65 mm (2016), 60.14 mm (2014), 56.48 mm (1994), and 53.07 mm (1988).

The least amount falling in a week ending 5th January was 0.52 mm in 2019, followed by 1.44 mm in 1940, 2.48 mm in 2009, and 2.70 mm (1973). 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1957, with record high temperatures on this date) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1957&maand=1&dag=5&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Earthshine]

On 02/01/2022 at 12:57, Weather-history said:

The biggest surprise for me is that for such a high mean, the maximum  temperature recorded was not that "high" so to speak.  It did reach 18.7C on the 28th December 2019 , 17.2C on the 6th January 1916.

Which makes me wonder was the set-up not actually the perfect Fohn set-up? 

North Wales had an official reading of 19.2C at 2am from an amateur weather station (Derek Brockway tweeted about it recently).

[Summer Sun]

8.8c to the 4th

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.8c on the 4th

[Roger J Smith]

In free fall now, could be lower than the record high monthly mean at this rate. /s

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 6th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.3 in 1898. Before that, the record was 9.8 in 1890. Since 1898 the highest value on the 6th is only 10.0 in 1932, then after that, 9.8 in 1999; other mild values on this date include 9.6 in 1992, 9.4 in 1975 and 1983, 9.3 in 1976, and 9.2 in 1884 and 1903. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.9 in 1894. Other low daily means were -6.2 in 1864, -4.7 in 1835, -3.6 in 1879, -3.3 in 1861, -3.1 in 1893, and -3.0 in 2009. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.7 in 1916 and 1928. Other mild days include 12.2 in 2005, 12.0 in 1890, 11.9 in 1932, 11.7 in 1903 and 1999, 11.6 in 1898 and 1905, 11.4 in 1937, and 11.3 in 1958.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.2 in 1983 which replaced 9.0 from 1898. Other mild minimum readings were 8.7 in 1975, 8.4 in 1992, 8.1 in 1932 and 1976, 8.0 in 1999, 7.6 in 1890, and 7.3 in 1884.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.0 in 1894. Other cold values were -0.8 (1893), -0.3 (1891 and 1929), 0.0 (1889), 0.4 (1947), 0.6 (1879 and 1901), 0.9 (2009 and 2010), and 1.1 (1895, 1941 and 1982). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -10.7 in 1894. Other cold minima include -7.7 in 1879 and 1979, -6.8 in 2009, -6.2 in 1970, -5.6 in 1939, -5.4 in 1908, -5.3 in 1893, -4.8 in 1889, -4.3 in 1941, and -3.8 in 1891 and 2003. (2010 took a one-day break at only -1.8).

The wettest 6th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 15.97 mm (1959), followed by 15.82 mm (1948), 14.41 mm (1932), 12.62 mm (1939), and 12.29 mm (2016). 

The wettest week ending 6th January (31st Dec - 6th Jan) was 67.02 mm in 1998, followed by 61.63 mm (2014), 61.08 mm (2016), 50.38 mm (1988) and 49.97 mm (1994).

The least amount falling in a week ending 6th January was 0.51 mm in 2019, followed by 1.81 mm in 1964, 2.59 mm in 2002, 2.75 mm in 2009, and 2.82 mm in 1973. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1894, with record cold temperatures on this date) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1894&maand=1&dag=6&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 5.1mm 6.9% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

7.7c to the 5th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.7c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

First report on the EWP. It stands around 15 mm at present. The ten-day GFS projection is around 15-20 mm with substantial dry intervals after this weekend. Only about 5-10 mm could be expected in days 11-16 on the current model run. That adds up to totals around 40 mm by the 22nd, however, if December is any guide, the total on the 22nd may not mean much to the final outcome. 

The temperature trends shown are down, steady and down some more. We could actually manage to wring a below normal outcome out of this very mild start which would be just fine with me. But we won't be racing down, for a while things will probably stabilize in the mid 5 to near 6 range before resuming a downward trajectory, if the GFS output is correct. Would estimate being around 4.5 by 22nd on the sole basis of the GFS maps. Then you would have to factor in common sense. 

[damianslaw]

Nothing overly mild or cold on the horizon as we approach mid month..  probably a little above average.  So expect we will be somewhere in the 5.5 to 6 degree range mid month.. mild. How second half pans out very uncertain at this stage. Big contrast to last year which delivered I think the coldest first half to Jan since 2010, correct me if I'm wrong. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 7th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.3 in 1890. Before that, the record was 9.8 in 1867. Since 1890 the highest values on the 7th are only 9.4 in 1905 then 9.3 in 1949 and 1989. The next highest after all those was 9.1 in 2005 with 8.8 in 1916, 8.7 in 1976 and 8.6 in 2020.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.7 in 1841. Other low daily means were -6.2 in 1894, -5.2 in 1835, -4.7 in 1777, -4.6 in 2010, -4.1 in 1784 and 1840, -3.9 in 1891, -3.7 in 1970, -3.6 in 1814, -3.5 in 1864, -3.1 in 1861 and 1985, -2.8 in 1850, and -2.6 in 1982 and 2009.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.9 in 2005. Other mild days include 12.8 in 2020, 11.8 in 1890, 11.5 in 1989, 11.3 in 1923 and 1939, 11.1 in 1913, 1930, 1950 and 1957 and 11.0 in 1916. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.8 in 1890. Other mild minimum readings were 8.4 in 1905, 8.1 in 1949, and 7.5 in 1976.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.6 in 1894. Other cold values were -1.8 (1985), -0.7 (2010), -0.5 (1997), -0.3 (1901) -0.2 (1982), 0.1 (1891), 0.2 (1893), 0.4 (1929), 0.7 (1963), 0.8 (1879), 0.9 (1931 and 1970), 1.0 (1954), 1.1 (1959 and 2003) and 1.3 (1895 and 2021). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.7 in 1894. Other cold minima include -8.6 in 1886, -8.5 in 2010, -8.2 in 1970, -7.9 in 1891, -7.3 in 2009, -5.6 in 1920, -4.9 in 1982, -4.8 in 1979, -4.7 in 1879, -4.4 in 1931 and 1985, -4.0 in 1939, -3.9 in 2003, -3.8 in 1918, -3.7 in 1947 and -3.6 in 2021. 

The wettest 7th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.23 mm (1986), followed by 11.36 mm (2011) and 10.44 mm (2004). 

The wettest week ending 7th January (1st - 7th Jan) was 70.90 mm in 1998, followed by 61.10 mm (2016),57.86 mm (2014), 49.69 mm (1948), 49.51 mm (1994) and 49.44 mm (1988).

The least amount falling in a week ending 7th January was 0.80 mm in 1964, followed by 0.94 mm in 2019, 1.73 mm in 1997, 2.25 mm in 1973, 2.46 mm in 2002, and 3.25 mm in 2009. 

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(Today's map link is for 1970, not quite as cold as 2010, and largely forgotten now) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1970&maand=1&dag=7&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Roger J Smith