January 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 6th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 6.9c on the 6th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.2C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 7.9mm 10.6% of the monthly total.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 8th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 9.9 in 1858. This is the first of three days in January (or the calendar year) that have never reached 10 C. The others are the 12th (also 9.9) and 28th (9.8). Two others are capped at 10.0, and one day in February also has 10.0 as its highest value. Since 1858 the highest value on the 8th was 9.7 in 1869 and 1971. It was also 9.7 in 1775. Other mild days include 9.6 in 1890, 9.4 in 2020, 9.1 in 1888, 1989 and 2004, 9.0 in 2013, 8.9 in 1827 and 1976, and 8.8 in 1992 and 2007. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -9.2 in 1841. Other low daily means were -5.0 in 1777, -3.7 in 1840 and 2010, -3.4 in 1789, 1820 and 1982, -3.3 in 1918, -3.1 in 1891, -2.9 in 1864, -2.8 in 1814 and -2.6 in 1985.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.8 in 2007. The previous record was 12.4 in 1998, then before that, 11.8 in 1888, tied in 1971. Other mild days include 11.7 in 1922 and 1939, 11.6 in 1988, 11.3 in 1914 and 2020, 11.1 in 1992, and 11.0 in 1890. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.2 in 1890. Other mild minimum readings were, 8.0 in 1989, 7.5 in 2004 and 2020, 7.4 in 1976 and 2013.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.1 in 1982. Other cold values were -0.6 (1918), -0.1 (1881, 1901 and 1985) , 0.2 (1963), 0.3 (2010), 0.4 (1967), 0.5 (1879 and 1997), 0.9 (1968), 1.1 (1956), 1.3 (1891 and 1929) and 1.4 (1892, 1931 and 2021).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -7.7 in 1970 tied in 2010. Other cold minima include -7.4 in 1891, -7.1 in 1894, -6.9 in 1886, -5.9 in 1918, -5.1 in 1985, -4.7 in 1982 and 1987, -4.4 in 2003, -4.3 in 1954, -4.1 in 1892, -3.9 in 1879, 1931 and 1967 (-3.1 in 2021). 

The wettest 8th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 16.55 mm (1992), followed by 14.71 mm (1968), 14.40 mm (1996), 13.23 mm (1991), 11.23 mm (1982, snow eq 11.2 cm), 11.91 mm (2014) and 10.74 mm (2020). 

The wettest week ending 8th January (2nd - 8th Jan) was 59.56 mm in 2016, followed by 59.07 mm (1998), and 54.96 mm (2014).

The least amount falling in a week ending 8th January was 0.77 mm in 1964, followed by 1.05 mm in 2019, 1.65 mm in 1997, 2.23 mm in 1973, 2.40 mm in 2002, 2.80 mm in 2009, and 2.95 mm in 1941.

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1841, quite an impressive cold spell although the monthly average was a less spectacular 1.1 C) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1841&maand=1&dag=8&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Also worth a look, this same setting for 1982 (you can navigate there after 1841) for the cold and snow. 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.6C +0.9CV above normal. Rainfall 12.5mm 16.9% of the monthly total.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 7th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 6.5c on the 7th

[damianslaw]

Mmm was expecting a lower figure given we've had some very cold nights in CET zone recently.. will not doubt factor into any downward corrections month end.

[Don]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm was expecting a lower figure given we've had some very cold nights in CET zone recently.. will not doubt factor into any downward corrections month end.

Me too.  Possibly a big downward correction this month?

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Me too.  Possibly a big downward correction this month?

Many a month recently I've questioned the CET values and we've seen major downward corrections of 0.5 degrees or more - think November, view with caution.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 9th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.7 in 1998. This broke a record of 10.4 from 1914 which had replaced 9.6 from 1873. Other mild days include 10.3 in 1971, 9.4 in 1921 and 2015, 9.3 in 1922 and 1996, 9.2 in 1819, 9.1 in 1939 and 1989, 8.9 in 1927 and 2007, 8.8 in 1936, 8.7 in 1957, and 8.6 in 1899 and 1910.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.0 in 1841. This is the highest such value for January. Other low daily means were -4.2 in 1838, -4.1 in 1780 and 1814, -3.9 in 1777, -3.3 in 1982, -3.1 in 1861, -3.0 in 1820, -2.8 in 1892 and -2.7 in 1794. (2010 at -2.1 was fading slowly, and will not make any further visits to this section for quite a while).

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.0 in 2015. The previous record was 13.7 in 1998, then before that, 13.4 in 1914. Other mild days include 13.3 in 1921, 13.2 in 1936, 13.1 in 2005, 12.7 in 1922 and 2007, 12.4 in 1910, 12.3 in 1927 and 1971, 12.2 in 1988, 11.7 in 1888, 11.4 in 1993, 11.1 in 1890, and 11.0 in 1996. It is interesting how much increase there was from the top values the previous day.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.2 in 1957 and 1971. Other mild minimum readings were 8.1 in 1939, 7.9 in 1989, 7.6 in 1998, 7.5 in 1996, 7.4 in 1914 and 7.3 in 1899.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.5 in 1982. Other cold values were, 0.2 (1924),  0.4 (1879 and 1895), 0.6 (1892), 0.7 (1963), 0.9 (1968), 1.0 (1881), 1.2 (2010), 1.3 (1880 and 1997), and 1.4 (1929).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -6.5 in 1918. Other cold minima include -6.2 in 1892, -5.3 in 2010, -5.1 in 1985, -5.0 in 1963, -4.8 in 1967 and 1987, -4.5 in 1891 and 1901, -4.2 in 1879 and -4.1 in 1982. 

The wettest 9th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 13.19 mm (1991), followed by 13.04 mm (2007), 12.64 mm (1936), 11.74 mm (2016), 11.66 mm (1946), and 10.57 mm (1993) and 10.27 mm (1943). 

The wettest week ending 9th January (3rd - 9th Jan) was 64.05 mm in 2016, followed by 52.66 mm (1948), and 52.00 mm (1991).

The least amount falling in a week ending 9th January was 0.92 mm in 1964, followed by 1.05 mm in 2019, 1.50 mm in 1973, 1.77 mm in 1997, 2.69 mm in 2009, and 2.78 mm in 1941.

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1998, with mild temperatures) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1998&maand=1&dag=9&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 18.4mm 24.7% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 8th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 6.3c on the 8th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 10th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.1 in 1921. Before that, the record was 9.8 in 1873 . Since 1921 the highest daily mean is 10.1 (1998). Other mild days include 9.9 in 1971, 9.8 in 1936, 9.5 in 2015, 9.1 in 2005, 9.0 in 1858, 1976 and 2007, 8.9 in 1975, 8.7 in 1902, 1927, 1946  and 1993, and 8.6 in 1818. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -6.7 in 1814. Other low daily means were -5.2 in 1982, -4.2 in 1838, -4.1 in 1784, -4.0 in 1780 and 1820, -3.6 in 1879, -2.8 in 1794 and -2.7 in 1895.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.7 in 1971. This replaced 11.8 from 1921. Since 1971 then the highest value is 12.3 in 1998. Other mild days include 11.8 in 1993, 11.7 in 1976, 11.6 in 1950, 11.5 in 1946, 11.4 in 1983, 11.3 in 1936, 2004 and 2005, 11.2 in 1974 and 1986, and 11.0 in 1955, 1995 and 2007. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 10.4 in 1921. Other mild minimum readings were 8.4 in 2015, 8.3 in 1936,, 7.9 in 1927 and 1998, 7.2 in 1975 and 7.1 in 1971 and 2005.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.3 in 1982. Other cold values were, -1.2 (1895), -1.1 (1879), 0.3 (1987), 0.5 (1881), 0.8 (1908), 0.9 (1959), 1.1 (1966), 1.2 (1886 and 1940), and 1.5 (1963 and 1997).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.0 in 1968 and 1982. (1814 was likely around -10). Other cold minima include -6.1 in 1879, -5.0 in 1892, 1924 and 2009, -4.5 in 2010, -4.3 in 1908,  -4.2 in 1963, -4.1 in 1891 and 1895, -3.9 in 1886, -3.8 in 1933 and -3.6 in 1985. 

The wettest 10th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 21.71 mm (1948), followed by 13.97 mm (1974), 13.56 mm (1993), 13.13 mm (1962), 12.74 mm (1978), 12.70 mm (1955), 11.76 mm (2011), 10.71 mm (1958) and 10.37 mm (1951). 

The wettest week ending 10th January (4th - 10th Jan) was 67.88 mm in 1948, followed by 59.08 mm (2016), 52.86 mm (1991), and 52.06 mm (1974).

The least amount falling in a week ending 10th January was 1.00 mm in 1964, followed by 1.04 mm in 1973, 1.37 mm in 2019, 2.03 mm in 1997, and 2.49 mm in 1931.

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1998, with mild temperatures) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1998&maand=1&dag=10&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited January 11, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[SLEETY]

Heading for one of warmest ever Januarys, nearly 3c above average, and turning mild again, what's gone wrong with January since 1987,nearly every month above average  since then. 

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 9th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 1st
Current low this month 6.2c on the 9th

[Frigid]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Heading for one of warmest ever Januarys, nearly 3c above average, and turning mild again, what's gone wrong with January since 1987,nearly every month above average  since then. 

I agree, only Jan 2010 was significantly colder than average since 87. Even though the month started off record breaking, I feel like the CET will be close to average given we have some cold nights and possibly a northerly. The final third will make this month mild of cool. hoping for the latter. 

[LetItSnow!]

8 minutes ago, Frigid said:

I agree, only Jan 2010 was significantly colder than average since 87. Even though the month started off record breaking, I feel like the CET will be close to average given we have some cold nights and possibly a northerly. The final third will make this month mild of cool. hoping for the latter. 

Considering the chances of actually getting frosty nights and freezing fog are better than the failure in December I'm not banking on a notably mild January. Freezing fog/cold nights will drag the CET down sharp and then there's always the chance of downwards corrections too. That combined with a November 2021-esque downwards correction will send the temperature down. However, you're completely right about the final week. It could be the difference between landing in the 3s (something entirely possible), the 4s (my guess at the moment), or even 5+ (hoping isn't the case). Hoping for anything at or below the 3s... I'm a dreamer! Two consecutive colder than average Januaries would be nice. Not a tall order against the 1991-2020 average of 4.7. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall 18.8mm 25.3% of the monthly average.

[Godber 1]

10 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Heading for one of warmest ever Januarys, nearly 3c above average, and turning mild again, what's gone wrong with January since 1987,nearly every month above average  since then. 

Current CET is 6.2c joint 19th atm. Have to be honest, i feel comfortable with my CET guess of 3.6c.

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

I agree, only Jan 2010 was significantly colder than average since 87. Even though the month started off record breaking, I feel like the CET will be close to average given we have some cold nights and possibly a northerly. The final third will make this month mild of cool. hoping for the latter. 

Yes you are right - in the last 35 years we have only had one significantly cold January, in 2010.  That said we have also not had a really cold February since 1991.  To summarize how January has warmed in the last 30 years; the 1961-90 average January CET was 3.81*C; compared to that, the 1991-2020 average January CET is 4.66*C; that shows that January has warmed by an average of 0.85*C in the last 30 odd years. 

Last year the January CET did manage to finish 0.7*C below the 1961-90 mean; not a significantly cold one by any means, but was still the coldest for 11 years, and actually of a similar CET to 2009 and 2001 in recent times.  Unless something changes significantly very soon, and a significant cold spell does develop in the second half of this month, then I cannot see this month being anything but above average.  To get two successive below average Januarys would be a great achievement by the standards of recent years, although we managed it in 2009 and 2010 (the latter significantly so).

[Frigid]

13 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Yes you are right - in the last 35 years we have only had one significantly cold January, in 2010.  That said we have also not had a really cold February since 1991.  To summarize how January has warmed in the last 30 years; the 1961-90 average January CET was 3.81*C; compared to that, the 1991-2020 average January CET is 4.66*C; that shows that January has warmed by an average of 0.85*C in the last 30 odd years. 

Last year the January CET did manage to finish 0.7*C below the 1961-90 mean; not a significantly cold one by any means, but was still the coldest for 11 years, and actually of a similar CET to 2009 and 2001 in recent times.  Unless something changes significantly very soon, and a significant cold spell does develop in the second half of this month, then I cannot see this month being anything but above average.  To get two successive below average Januarys would be a great achievement by the standards of recent years, although we managed it in 2009 and 2010 (the latter significantly so).

As you say, February has basically seen no proper cold since 1991. 2018 was the closest to it, but came at the very end.  What surprises me more is how mild February's have been over the last decade or so. Look at 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2020. All those years have had a CET above 6C. Would be a nice change to see a significantly cold February this year, though in our warming climate, it's becoming very unlikely. 

As for January, if we do get a cold final week, then a 3C CET could be possible, but im leaning towards the mid 4s to 5s atm. At least it will be largely dry compared to last Jan. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 11th January 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.1 in 1990. Before that, the record was 9.9 in 1950, which replaced 9.6 from 1946, previously only 8.9 in 1873 . Other mild days included 9.7 in 1976, 9.3 in 1965 and 1984, 9.2 in 1975, 9.0 in 2005, 8.8 in 1894, 8.6 in 2012 and 8.4 in 1972 and 1983.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.5 in 1838. Other low daily means were -5.3 in 1814, -5.0 in 1987, -4.8 in 1879, -3.9 in 1963 and 1982, -3.7 in 1895, -3.6 in 1792, -3.2 in 1891, -2.8 in 1840, -2.6 in 1940 and -2.5 in 1780 and 1795.

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.3 in 2007. This replaced 12.1 from 2005, which had replaced 12.0 from 1950. Other mild days include 11.8 in 1974, 11.6 in 1946, 11.4 in 1894 and 1975, 11.3 in 1976 and 1990, and 11.0 in 1948 and 2012. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.8 in 1990. Other mild minimum readings were 8.1 in 1976, 8.0 in 1965, 7.8 in 1950, 7.6 in 1946, 7.5 in 1983, 7.2 in 2004 and 7.1 in 1984. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.3 in 1987. Other cold values were -1.9 (1895), -1.3 (1879), -1.0 (1963), -0.1 (1982), 0.4 (1881), 0.6 (1942), 0.8 (1891), 1.1 (2010), 1.2 (1968), and 1.3 (1929 and 1940).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -8.2 in 1879 with -7.8 in 1982. (1814 and 1838 may have been in this range too). Other cold minima include -7.2 in 1891, -6.7 in 1963 and 1987, -6.5 in 1940, -5.6 in 1968, -5.4 in 1895, -5.3 in 1908 and -5.0 in 1942. 

The wettest 11th of January (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 13.13 mm (1934), followed by 12.00 mm (2008). This is a much smaller harvest of wet days than previously seen. 

The wettest week ending 11th January (5th - 11th Jan) was 64.67 mm in 1948, followed by 52.17 mm (2016), and 50.07 mm (1932).

The least amount falling in a week ending 11th January was 0.64 mm in 1964, followed by 0.73 mm in 1973, 1.66 mm in 2019, and 2.70 mm in 1963.

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1987, as an epic cold easterly with snow developed) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=11&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

 

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

Since and including January 2011, there has been an odd checkerboard pattern with Januarys and their CETs

The odd year Januarys have been cooler than the even year Januarys

2011: 3.7

2012: 5.4

2013: 3.5

2014: 5.7

2015: 4.4

2016: 5.4

2017: 4.0

2018: 5.3

2019: 4.0

2020: 6.4

2021: 3.1

Average for odd year Januarys: 3.8

Average for even year Januarys: 5.6

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Since and including January 2011, there has been an odd checkerboard pattern with Januarys and their CETs

The odd year Januarys have been cooler than the even year Januarys

2011: 3.7

2012: 5.4

2013: 3.5

2014: 5.7

2015: 4.4

2016: 5.4

2017: 4.0

2018: 5.3

2019: 4.0

2020: 6.4

2021: 3.1

Average for odd year Januarys: 3.8

Average for even year Januarys: 5.6

 

 

You have now jinxed January 2023

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 19.1mm 25.7% of the monthly rainfall.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, The PIT said:

Sunny old Sheffield up to 5.3C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 19.1mm 25.7% of the monthly rainfall.

Only 0.6c above normal? Is that winter so far or Jan? You must've had some good frosty days.