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Model Discussion - A Sensible Scottish Perspective


Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    This is a great idea @Ravelin

    The 12z GFS still looking decent for Christmas Day for many of us, hopefully the ECM shows the same later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    Guys, feel free to join the alternative one too. Lots of northerners in that thread including myself and others in Northern England, weather wise we are closer to Scotland than the south.

     

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    The GFS is getting pelters in the main thread, after being the hero for a bit. When you see the 850 plots going from something like this... 

    graphe3_10000___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    To this, in the space of 12hrs... 

    graphe3_10000___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    Then you know something is awry. Not only has the mean increased quite noticeably, but the spread has increased too, and therefore the uncertainty. Normally you'd expect the spread to decrease as the actual weather got closer, but look how on the 23rd its increased massively. In the end there can only be one correct solution, just which one it is though is anyone's guess. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    The ECM 12z... 

    ECH1-144.GIF?19-0 ECM0-144.GIF?19-0

    More similar to GFS/Gem than UKMO? Certainly is in terms of 850 temps, but unusual for UKMO to be wrong at t144? 

    By the way, feel free to have a go at posting, this isn't intended to be my personal thread, and it won't be of much use if it becomes that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

    GFS wind chill for the bid day  

    Screenshot_20211219-184947.thumb.png.7a5da2d261862783c716a427a41ed49d.png

    Plenty snow in that cool air flow, ground temps will be good for it settling also.  Even eastern coasts will see snaw from the 12z GFS run. Great stuff!

    JMA not too shabby either

    Screenshot_20211219-185004.thumb.png.316a4abccd07298371ce65aed8e34c6a.png

    ECMWF upper temps more than good enough for snaw all over as well. All trending in the right direction for us North of the border.  

    Screenshot_20211219-185223.png

    Screenshot_20211219-185152.png

    Edited by ghoneym
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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Yes ECM is fine for Christmas Day

    0B5EFD5D-8ED6-4C4C-94D2-2DAD276F25C6.thumb.png.a7480e8a1d8ca10f91a8b93f667c14aa.png
    E68EAAC8-7AC8-4778-B4C2-967B8704B876.thumb.png.e93b22afc15693836e720e9560b55256.png


    It’s great to see the chance of a white Christmas is there. At least the models are not showing the usual south westerlies. Exciting few days of model watching for us over the next few days

    Hopefully the UKMO is wrong and the GFS, GEM and ECM are correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
    12 minutes ago, CameronWS said:

    Do you think snowfall would likely be to sea level, say based upon the latest ECM?

    To sea level, with 850 temps of - 7/8C then probably, if we are lucky enough to have some decent precipitation. Coastal falling or lying snow however can be much more of a problem due to the local modifying effect of the sea. 

    25th looks touch and go for many away from the N & E... 

    ECU0-144.GIF?19-0

    The 28th looks more promising 850s wise... 

    ECU0-216.GIF?19-0

    But 850s aren't the only thing needed. 

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    Looking ahead, the long-term outlook is quite bleak. Models are now consistently showing high pressure pushing in from Spain, apart from the odd member here and there. So the potential cold and snow over Christmas could be very short-lived. 

    For the Christmas period, there is still a chance for many of us to see snow here in Scotland. As often happens, it is looking quite marginal at the moment: I’m still hopeful that we might see a slight south shift in the next model updates. It really wouldn’t take a lot to get all us all back in the game here in Scotland (eastern coastal areas included). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Looking ahead, the long-term outlook is quite bleak. Models are now consistently showing high pressure pushing in from Spain, apart from the odd member here and there. So the potential cold and snow over Christmas could be very short-lived. 

    For the Christmas period, there is still a chance for many of us to see snow here in Scotland. As often happens, it is looking quite marginal at the moment: I’m still hopeful that we might see a slight south shift in the next model updates. It really wouldn’t take a lot to get all us all back in the game here in Scotland (eastern coastal areas included). 

    I did notice it’s a bit more marginal looking south of the central belt on the latest charts on the big day. It is always quite common for a southward shift in the models as we get nearer the timeframe   

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    Looking at the GFS 12Z 850 ensembles for my location, which will be much more favourable than most, is still interesting... 

    graphe3_10000___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    Slightly less scatter than there was on the earlier runs but still a lot more than yesterday, and still starting relatively early. What I often find more useful though is the box plot version... 

    graphe3_10001___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    The first obvious observation is that the OP is an outlier, in the true sense rather than how 'outlier' is often used on the MOD thread, from around the 30th onwards. Secondly, look closely at the lower 10-50% quantiles and out to the end of the 31st they are much more tightly grouped than the upper 10-50% quantile. That's indicative that there's much more grouping going on in the colder ensembles than for the warmer ones. Hopefully that means a greater chance of the cold options winning, but then again the 'outlier' OP could be the winner, such are the vagaries of the weather. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, Canada [4296ft] & North Kent [350ft]
  • Location: Canmore, Canada [4296ft] & North Kent [350ft]

    Sod the models, I’ve got a more accurate way of working out if it’ll be a white Christmas.

    I’ve had four white christmases whenever I’ve visited family in Scotland and the year has been an odd number.

    I’m coming up this year...just saying ❄️❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Banchory, Kincardineshire - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Dry cold & snow / Summer - hot & sunny and thunderstorms
  • Location: Banchory, Kincardineshire - 60m ASL

    Trying to get my head around all these charts, I’ll get there eventually.

    To be honest, in my 50+ years, I’ve experienced many more damp Christmases than white ones but white New Years? Now that’s a different story and one I’ll be keenly following once we get through this week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
    5 minutes ago, Sanserit said:

    Trying to get my head around all these charts, I’ll get there eventually.

    To be honest, in my 50+ years, I’ve experienced many more damp Christmases than white ones but white New Years? Now that’s a different story and one I’ll be keenly following once we get through this week.

    50+ too and anecdotally I'd say the same. The extra week seems to make quite a difference. I'd be quite happy if the @Coopsyeffect is works again this year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    GFS 18z rolling out and here's Xmas day... 

    gfsnh-0-138.png?18 gfs-1-138.png?18 138-780UK.GIF?19-18

    Overall profile a bit different from its 12Z, cold is further south at the same time, but snow accumulation not as extensive or deep for us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    4 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

    GFS 18z rolling out and here's Xmas day... 

    gfsnh-0-138.png?18 gfs-1-138.png?18 138-780UK.GIF?19-18

    Overall profile a bit different from its 12Z, cold is further south at the same time, but snow accumulation not as extensive or deep for us. 

    A run for the bin Rav it's ok tho because it's the 'pub run' and there's no 'balloon data' and it's not showing what I want so I'm going to dismiss it like a Mod thread maniac

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    It appears like mist in the MOD thread have given up on Xmas day snow as all of the models are suggesting the cold air from the E will struggle to get here. Still possible for parts of Scotland but certainly looking more uncertain. The 850s for NE Scotland illustrate this... 

    graphe3_10001___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    Although the OP for 24-26th is still good, the spread has increased again, with only 27-29th really looking to have any consistency. Heading in to the new Year the spread would suggest just about any outcome is on the table. 

    Still time for things to swing back? 

    Edit:

    GFS snow depths charts, always to be taken with a pinch of salts... 

    132-780UK.GIF?20-0

    Looking better by 28th...

    210-780UK.GIF?20-0

    Edited by Ravelin
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    Posted
  • Location: Rothienorman 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Rothienorman 130m asl

    Brilliant idea to have this thread.. i will still pop into the wrist slashing thread just for a bit of fun and just to check what the rest of the uk is getting weather wise.. and maybe when we have snaw i might be tempted to post a picture or 2..

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    Posted
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
    9 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

    Brilliant idea to have this thread.. i will still pop into the wrist slashing thread just for a bit of fun and just to check what the rest of the uk is getting weather wise.. and maybe when we have snaw i might be tempted to post a picture or 2..

    Dont go into the madhouse now..the bickering has all kicked off

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

    Well the GFS 6Z hasn't clarified anything, sticking to a cooler Xmas outlook than the earlier UKMO/ECM runs. 

    graphe3_10001___2.7397_57.265_.gif

    The 850s for Aberdeenshire have taken a tick down on Xmas day, pity the main precipitation comes 2 days earlier when it'll more likely be cold rain. 

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