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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A little sunshine from time to time today. A high of just below 16c so feeling very mild for December.

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

Only 12 days ago…idiots who now seem to have completely disappeared on the model forums, posting charts that was showing below daytime temps for this day today and record snow depths…they do spoil it for me …

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

A much brighter start to the day and as the clouds scudded across the sky there were even glimpses of blue.  Sun didn't quite make it out but what a difference the increase in light made to lift spirits. Top temperature today was 15.8°C at 11:30 after an overnight low of 14.8°C - amazing.  I'm sure the grass is growing.  Currently 14.7°C with 81% humidity.  Wind WSW 16mph.  Pressure 1012.9hPa steady.  No rain has fallen in the last 24 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 hours ago, slater said:

Only 12 days ago…idiots who now seem to have completely disappeared on the model forums, posting charts that was showing below daytime temps for this day today and record snow depths…they do spoil it for me …

and if you tell them it isn't going to happen, then you are a party pooper and negative thinker who brings down the mood of the MOD thread I said it will go pear shaped

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
2 hours ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Very mild today , almost spring like ! Even the buds on the trees are starting to appear 

My hazel nut tree is budding already. I'll have new nuts by April at this rate.

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

and if you tell them it isn't going to happen, then you are a party pooper and negative thinker who brings down the mood of the MOD thread I said it will go pear shaped

Yes, thank you…..i have commented many times to these people and always get a crappy reply back….this is a little tiny island that so many people seem to forget. Posting extreme charts 12 days out is absolutely ludicrous and saying it’s nailed on! ….i know which posters these are so when they are back can’t wait to respond to them again…

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Might take a rest from the model thread but I'll keep looking at my choice of models, the upper level winds an occasionally the actual jet. They give you a much fairer and good idea of what is happening, they have been consistently good even up until 150 hours which is when I personally stop and they give a fair overview of the pattern now and what is to come. You can also easily see the deviation within levels that will take its course because of how air parcels move.

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Been quite a nice day so far today, blue skies, sunshine, tad breezy but sooo much better than the last few weeks of endless cloud. Even went out and washed the car, another 15c temp same as yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Mild and damp,feels horrid.

Expecting big payback from this crazy mild spell,probably late winter again,never get proper seasons anymore.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Happy New Year!

Blue skies this morning, what a treat! Seen nothing but grey most of December.

Looking forward to the more seasonal weather on the way next week, this very mild weather is just wrong in deep winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Merstham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Summer sunshine
  • Location: Merstham, Surrey

What a lovely New Year surprise, beautiful blue skies and the sun shining through the bedroom window. Happy New Year all! 

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

Just after 9am here in Colchester, 11°c on the patio. Part cloudy but lots of blue sky. 

Warm enough to open the back door for the cats to go out and not have to shut it again real quick!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Yesterday was fine with good sunny spells once the early low cloud broke up. Another fine day today by the looks of it with the sun out.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

A very Happy New Year to everyone. Very pleasant outside this morning with sunshine and a mild 11C. Will we get back to a taste of winter by next Tuesday afternoon? This morning's GFS suggesting the possibility, although other models have the Low tracking further south, so saying 'no'. One to keep an eye on.

Low with -7C 850's wrapping around: 1470236838_GFS850Tue04Jan22.thumb.GIF.944c3cd2ae75be6bdc25f46654168ce5.GIF

Precipitation turning to snow:             300689955_GFSPrecipTue04Jan22.thumb.GIF.435d711dada915bfc64d0ee850876669.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Happy new year all, hopefully some winter weather will arrive soon

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

Happy new year, time for the breaking down of the models

IMG_0656.thumb.PNG.406b1e6e1f9b5a921ae03dbe0c56f8cc.PNGIMG_0657.thumb.PNG.5f50ac900e71c8f1eb904f297d44220c.PNG

The initial pattern is pretty simple with four phases to look at. A downwards propagating wave across the western American seaboard will push the positively tilted trough on a turning axle where the trough begins ejecting.Then a slightly tilted wave pushing up from the Atlantic pulling air pretty far away and so I expect the Rossby wave to weaken momentum easily. Finally, we have some more downwards propagating caused by the pushing off this current Rossby wave and it's pulling air slowly from nearby Iceland.

IMG_0658.thumb.PNG.3762c2c9080ee0077f27c886d04d5de4.PNGIMG_0659.thumb.PNG.5cf38ab0cccde5494767bfc4d8ccac25.PNGThe long-fecthced wave has acted up on the Iceland air as it continues its journey across the continent and pulling across the mid Atlantic whereas the forcing we always see from near Greenland has caused another curving force of air. The momentum and energy within the trough caused it to easily edge across the continent as it leaves the eastern seaboard. The forcing from the Pacific easily flattens out and we have another one turning down. This, in my opinion, will push across and force the wave from the ejecting trough and influence the rest of the pattern. When one flattened pattern hits a turned and forced wave across the eastern seaboard. If approaching from behind the main point of energy within the wave north of the vorticity within the turning point of the boundrary between the trough and the wave forcing moisture up from Mexico. This would most likely end up in flattening out the highest energy area of the wave that it's hitting, which in turn would end up causing a surprisingly strong turning phase south of Greenland.

 

Eventually, this would cause another turning point closer to Britain when it hits another phase of the Atlantic and a brief up push of air would be likely before it quickly clears through, this would cause a big mess within the area as waves hit from all areas and so allows a very short time for northerlies to win out as they naturally would, it is easier to fall than to climb. That low around Canada forcing up through the north of us before falling at the first point it sees, this is why a Canadian low can be a good thing, it kicks up energy and a cycle that ends up with luck for us eventually with a brief toppler when it has no blocking below itself.

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This has done almost exactly what I predicted (might have looked ahead to see if I was close) with blocking in a brief lull and a brief toppled from some moderate energy kicking down. This toppler will most definitely happen with the agreement consistently on this model being brilliant compared to other parameters from what I've seen. Looking over in the Pacific we have a slightly more negative tilting wave than the last one pushing into it and so I'm slightly worried about that for the next potential toppler.

IMG_0664.thumb.PNG.e54587ca173050903726df8a99822831.PNG

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A pretty good wave across the Atlantic if you want drivel lol, you've got a small but good curving wave on the eastern seaboard driven by a tailing wave in the Pacific. There's a Pacific drive in these tailing waves and that's what we want to see if we want a toppler because it drives the movement of air to cause or sometimes act like an ejecting trough in North America and therefore drive that chance across Greenland of rotation due to influence in Canada that we talked about.

 

The blocking high is across Siberia as usual and as we want  but I think we could see a cutoff blocking for now but that doesn't mean the potential isn't over. We have some more spiking in Siberia primed for blocking when influenced by the current MJO forcing that people seem to be talking about (Im assuming that's why these waves keep pushing out as many other factors) and we also have a tailing energy across Russia that's pushing blocking.

 

Atlantic forcing is also being pushed down by the tailing push from a momentum wave coming out of the eastern seaboard. There is a lot of circulating current with more coming up than down currently which means that eventually everything must come down that came up and everything that's coming down will rotate due to the 'shear' caused by this and that could be part of the QBO's influence in this cycle because we are only currently in a weak easterly and this does feel like a transition phase. I would definitely keep an eye on the weather in weeks to come, at 1 point or another it could turn rapidly. This is just 1 of the many potential evolutions so I'm expecting for a split PV or a SSW just yet but the pattern may become evident soon.

Edited by Eagle Eye
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

St James Park, London, has provisionally beaten the 'warmest New Year's Day' record, hitting 16.3C and easily beating the previous record of 15.6C (60F) from 1916 in Bude, Cornwall.

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Final temp for Heathrow and new record was 16.3C.
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

For the record, December 2021 stats for East Anglia. With thanks to Dan Holley, Weatherquest, Twitter @danholley_

  • Warmer than average (+1.3°C)
  • Slightly wetter than average (110%)
  • Dullest December since 2002, 9th dullest on record

1452512827_EADec21stats.thumb.jpg.b85f78607feff369cda7010764500e93.jpg

You can find all the stats for each month in EA in the new 'Weather Records and Stats' thread:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk
  • Location: Halesworth, Suffolk

Thought I was going to get wet on dog walk this morning, but it seemed to jump our little town and then carried on out to sea. Blue Skies and sunshine now, lovely, 12c but with quite a blustery breeze that we seem to have had for a few days now, but at least it shifts the cloud and gloom away  

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