SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Bazza118]

temp peaked here at 35.3C today and now down to 30.8C, which thinking about it is quite warm for 7pm. the temperature drop though is very slow so the warm night that is expected is on the cards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Typically as we reach evening the cloud has cleared away to leave a sunny end to the day. Still 34c and it is going to be a steamy night.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Really hoping for a breakdown tomorrow night into Wednesday, app not picking up much though....not seen the charts yet.

Break in  temps but not with or much rain  in our patch which shows only about 8mm out to 384h

[TROY]

Yes it was hot, and its nice to see and feel a warm evening, we used to get a lot of balmy warm evenings and nights in the summers of 1970-1990. But we just do not seem to get so many nowdays. And heatwaves only last a day or two and then the fresher westerly breeze brings a return to cooler weather with chilly nights. Take care. Lets enjoy tomorrow.

[Tn9]

3 minutes ago, TROY said:

Yes it was hot, and its nice to see and feel a warm evening, we used to get a lot of balmy warm evenings and nights in the summers of 1970-1990. But we just do not seem to get so many nowdays. And heatwaves only last a day or two and then the fresher westerly breeze brings a return to cooler weather with chilly nights. Take care. Lets enjoy tomorrow.

Westlerly and a chilly night ,then the pounding of rain on the window ...ah bliss 

[Captain Shortwave]

The temperature rose almost 2 degrees after the cloud cleared to reach 36c at 7pm. Shows how much potential was there.

[Sparky68]

Spent our 30th anniversary in Cambridge, crazy heat car was recording 38c as we left.

[Tn9]

Tomorrow is gonna push the boundaries,tonight could break records as well ,with max minimums but everywhere has good head start for a push at the records I reckon tomorrow 

[Freeze]

Not as warm as last wednesday. A lot of blue skies but some high cloud around. Nothing like the heat of August 2020 here. That was something else.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Freeze

[Tn9]

On 16/07/2022 at 23:36, HighPressure said:

Surbiton will be Thames Water, actually Surbiton used to have a water treatment works, but good old TW sold it off for housing in the early 90s because it was supplying extra water they didn't need. As for restrictions, if they do happen this summer then I have no sympathy for the companies what so ever, but maybe it will lead to a proper probe into their activities over the past decade or so.

Yea I agree ,profits before anything else ,I guess if there is any  dodgy goings on some one will leak it

anyway on a serious note its all under the bridge now 

Edited July 18, 2022 by TN9

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow's potential

ECM

VS UKMO

VS AROME

VS ICON

VS EZ4

Very difficult to forecast based on normal information for Storm potential that we would want to look at, so next up it's the second best things to look at.

Shearing wise and we are likely to have some decent shearing associated possible, based on that I would say what is likely is some sort of squally winds/associated squall line quickly pushing through, hopefully with some torrential rain to apply moisture to the very dry surface at the moment.

Energy wise and a lot of differences in the amounts but apart from the UKMO, very similar areas being hit, so realistically it would then have to go onto CIN but even then, moisture was shown aloft recently and there has been a markedly plumey feel to the atmosphere so bear that in mind.

There will likely be gaps in CIN but it looks like it'll be keeping quite the lid on the atmosphere here in most models so I would suspect that most energy will be kept aloft but often that can clear the view for the possible lightning aloft. I think there is the potential for a Storm here definitely but for that I'll have to go to the soundings forecasted later on. Remember also that shearing can counteract energy if strong enough and significant buoyancy and forcing can also counteract it.

Elsewhere, looks to be some decent enough convergence moisture wise but whether it will be enough for Storm formation may remain unseen with a lot of divergence.

Vorticity wise and there looks to be a lot of forcing possibility for a squall line type of thing which is a very good thing Storm wise and might just give it that edge to keep going.

Soundings wise and just as I thought, a mainly surface capping with instability forecast about 13,000 feet aloft cloud tops looking pretty low there at instability wise, around 22,000 feet but I would think that the shearing will counteract some of that as well as the vorticity convergence causing relatively strong forcing, maybe even enough for 30,000 feet.

That's all I'm going to write for now.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Tn9]

23 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Tomorrow's potential

ECM

VS UKMO

VS AROME

VS ICON

VS EZ4

Very difficult to forecast based on normal information for Storm potential that we would want to look at, so next up it's the second best things to look at.

Shearing wise and we are likely to have some decent shearing associated possible, based on that I would say what is likely is some sort of squally winds/associated squall line quickly pushing through, hopefully with some torrential rain to apply moisture to the very dry surface at the moment.

Energy wise and a lot of differences in the amounts but apart from the UKMO, very similar areas being hit, so realistically it would then have to go onto CIN but even then, moisture was shown aloft recently and there has been a markedly plumey feel to the atmosphere so bear that in mind.

There will likely be gaps in CIN but it looks like it'll be keeping quite the lid on the atmosphere here in most models so I would suspect that most energy will be kept aloft but often that can clear the view for the possible lightning aloft. I think there is the potential for a Storm here definitely but for that I'll have to go to the soundings forecasted later on. Remember also that shearing can counteract energy if strong enough and significant buoyancy and forcing can also counteract it.

Elsewhere, looks to be some decent enough convergence moisture wise but whether it will be enough for Storm formation may remain unseen with a lot of divergence.

Vorticity wise and there looks to be a lot of forcing possibility for a squall line type of thing which is a very good thing Storm wise and might just give it that edge to keep going.

Soundings wise and just as I thought, a mainly surface capping with instability forecast about 13,000 feet aloft cloud tops looking pretty low there at instability wise, around 22,000 feet but I would think that the shearing will counteract some of that as well as the vorticity convergence causing relatively strong forcing, maybe even enough for 30,000 feet.

That's all I'm going to write for now.

I got a   feeling there will activity but not here ,south of us ..but like your say its a hard call at the moment and like you say not because of cold water etc etc but because it stays south of us and heads north east too quick, (swept away ) but you may see lightning but very much south of us (god I hope I'm wrong ) 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, TN9 said:

I got a   feeling there will activity but not here ,south of us ..but like your say its a hard call at the moment and like you say not because of cold water etc etc but because it stays south of us and heads north east too quick, (swept away ) but you may see lightning but very much south of us (god I hope I'm wrong ) 

Exactly, a difficult forecast but looks to be both south and possibly North of us in Kent, annoying but not nailed onto that yet with alright soundings in and around Kent. 

[Soaring Hawk]

A plague of flies today - has anyone else experienced this?  

[Tn9]

12 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Exactly, a difficult forecast but looks to be both south and possibly North of us in Kent, annoying but not nailed onto that yet with alright soundings in and around Kent. 

Yea you know what I mean ..its an outlier ,but its there and I hope for our storm loving sakes we get something ,I always think I've put up with this heat, what  for nothing ??? But the  form horse says it will move too quickly and shove everything it  seems SE of us but NE to quickly ..but ....

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Getting warmer again here!

 

[Tn9]

27 minutes ago, Soaring Hawk said:

A plague of flies today - has anyone else experienced this?  

No nothing.. it seemed even the flies couldn't be bothered ,but our temps only drop off 10c ..12c on weds  to Friday which normally would be nuts ,but at 39c -29c to me is still very hot ,and sadly hardly any rain 

[Norfolk Sheep]

One little late evening "shower" just now, it was hardly noticeable!

Still a rather balmy 24C, reminiscent of wandering around the shops in Zadar after an evening meal a couple of years ago.

[Kentspur]

Went on the nice aircon javellin train (I get free travel through my work) to Broadstairs today aka Viking Bay the warer felt so lovely wasnt the slightest bit cold come 2-3pm like being down in the Mediterranean youd have thought it was 33c down there ECM only forecast 28c there too!! Shows how bad models can forecast temps. 1c higher than BBC and the beach forecast itself had forecast of 32c. Nice onshore sea breeze also. Unfortunately the Charles Dickens museum house shut before i had time to go in.

[Darkcloud]

56 minutes ago, Soaring Hawk said:

A plague of flies today - has anyone else experienced this?  

Not flies but flying ants everywhere!

[Tn9]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Went on the nice aircon javellin train (I get free travel through my work) to Broadstairs today aka Viking Bay the warer felt so lovely wasnt the slightest bit cold come 2-3pm like being down in the Mediterranean youd have thought it was 33c down there ECM only forecast 28c there too!! Shows how bad models can forecast temps. 1c higher than BBC and the beach forecast itself had forecast of 32c. Nice onshore sea breeze also. Unfortunately the Charles Dickens museum house shut before i had time to go in.

Charles Dickens museum shut ?? Bet you had great expectations too:-) nice place to be today though mate 

[Kent Blizzard]

Eagle Eye fabulous post above in detail...much appreciated.

I really do hope for some rain either late tomorrow or Wednesday at some point.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Never known a night as sweltering as this! Car was recording 26c as I got home. Fan is on full blast and it’s like a hairdryer. 

[Darkcloud]

12.43am and 23.4°C

Longing for rain, everything is so parched round here, leaves are drooping and grass yellow. We need rain, and lots of it! Worryingly there really isn't any of note showing in the charts.....

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The temperature rose almost 2 degrees after the cloud cleared to reach 36c at 7pm. Shows how much potential was there.

It's 2:57 and temp has risen 2⁰ in the last couple of hours, sky still clear. Now 27⁰ Dover. Outside.