SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Soaring Hawk]

Hello for the first time in several days.  Am so tired from existing on 5 (or fewer) hours sleep for the last 10 days, courtesy of Omicron, that I caught up with pages of the regional thread before realising its been replaced with this sparkling new group.  Then it took me ages to work out, from the bewildering list to choose from, where to put a basic weather update.  This is hardly going to reassure anyone reading this pathetic post that I'm a reliable member of the NHS capable of functioning at the level and breadth of responsibility my role requires   I must get to bed early tonight!

Forgotten when we last had any sun - I'm sure there was some earlier in the year but maybe that's a sleep deprived fantasy - similar to the one where I'm not going to be called back in on Christmas or Boxing day due the numbers of staff off ill with Covid just as the system tips into critical incident mode.

Today's top temp here reached 5°C  (look at what I did there with the ° maybe I'm still capable of making creative, if not responsible, actions to some extent after all).  Currently 2°C with 83% humidity.  Wind: from midnight to 09:30 today flatlined zero registered on weather station, then ENE, East, veering ESE at 1mph with very occasional gusts between 2 and 4mph.  A moment of excitement at 18:00 to take the Highest Gust Of The Day Award with 7mph.  Currently back to zero.

Pressure:  currently 1023.6hPa although this is the lowest reading since 6pm on 13th December and has been very slowly dropping from the high of 1040.9hPa on 17th December.  No rain has fallen in the last 24 hours, with only .6mm since early hours of  Sunday 12th December.  

Todays highlight: It's Winter Solstice and the afternoons will get longer - Yay!!  now that's something tangible to celebrate in this uncertain and worrying time for so many. 

Take care of yourselves and for those who have tested positive, my sincere best wishes that you experience, at worst, a bad few days before starting to recover.  If that recovery isn't happening then please ask for help - despite the punch drunk, over tired somewhat self-directed irreverence of this post - the NHS is still here for everyone who needs it.   On a serious note, it's still rather amazing, all things taken into account since this pandemic started nearly 2 years ago.  Night all. 

 

[Sparky68]

4 minutes ago, Soaring Hawk said:

Hello for the first time in several days.  Am so tired from existing on 5 (or fewer) hours sleep for the last 10 days, courtesy of Omicron, that I caught up with pages of the regional thread before realising its been replaced with this sparkling new group.  Then it took me ages to work out, from the bewildering list to choose from, where to put a basic weather update.  This is hardly going to reassure anyone reading this pathetic post that I'm a reliable member of the NHS capable of functioning at the level and breadth of responsibility my role requires   I must get to bed early tonight!

Forgotten when we last had any sun - I'm sure there was some earlier in the year but maybe that's a sleep deprived fantasy - similar to the one where I'm not going to be called back in on Christmas or Boxing day due the numbers of staff off ill with Covid just as the system tips into critical incident mode.

Today's top temp here reached 5°C  (look at what I did there with the ° maybe I'm still capable of making creative, if not responsible, actions to some extent after all).  Currently 2°C with 83% humidity.  Wind: from midnight to 09:30 today flatlined zero registered on weather station, then ENE, East, veering ESE at 1mph with very occasional gusts between 2 and 4mph.  A moment of excitement at 18:00 to take the Highest Gust Of The Day Award with 7mph.  Currently back to zero.

Pressure:  currently 1023.6hPa although this is the lowest reading since 6pm on 13th December and has been very slowly dropping from the high of 1040.9hPa on 17th December.  No rain has fallen in the last 24 hours, with only .6mm since early hours of  Sunday 12th December.  

Todays highlight: It's Winter Solstice and the afternoons will get longer - Yay!!  now that's something tangible to celebrate in this uncertain and worrying time for so many. 

Take care of yourselves and for those who have tested positive, my sincere best wishes that you experience, at worst, a bad few days before starting to recover.  If that recovery isn't happening then please ask for help - despite the punch drunk, over tired somewhat self-directed irreverence of this post - the NHS is still here for everyone who needs it.   On a serious note, it's still rather amazing, all things taken into account since this pandemic started nearly 2 years ago.  Night all. 

 

Does seem that way in reference to the sunshine doesnt it. Hoping the gloomy weather is over.

Thanks for being part of our fabulous NHS and hope you have a great Christmas [ well as best as you can]

[Soaring Hawk]

1 minute ago, Sparky68 said:

Does seem that way in reference to the sunshine doesnt it. Hoping the gloomy weather is over.

Thanks for being part of our fabulous NHS and hope you have a great Christmas [ well as best as you can]

Oh bless you and thank you - I'll share your comment with my colleagues, a lot of whom are far more deserving of your thanks.  Goodnight  

[Floatylight]

Unfortunately my weather station is out of action.

It seems pretty chilly outside atm.

 

[Coopsy]

Visiting family in the SE this Christmas. Coming back from pub tonight and thick frost here on cars and grass in Wigmore, North Kent.

Sounds weird but not used to frost in the Canadian Rockies. The humidity is too low / not enough moisture around to create frost. Snow and ice yes but frost, not so much.

Off to Scotland just after Christmas....hoping for some snow  

[Sparky68]

That's more like it. -2c on the way in.

 

[Blazerblue]

-2c when I went out this morning, solid frost and a glorious sunrise starting to appear, best part, dogs come back clean and dry with a good frost,  hopefully a few hours of much needed sunshine today after days on end of dark dull cloudy gloom 

[Tn9]

13 hours ago, RJBingham said:

I'll just leave this here

 

Yea I said gfs has done really well.because it sort of sussed it 2 Weeks back but gave us an nice easterly but then it deepened the shortwave and nudged it north.. east anglia upwards was then getting cold air dragged in that should and would of been over all of us ..still close call for me here ...then the whole picture gets messy and it has six or so little shortwaves changing winds around all over as the move through but it don't take much to go much milder or cold ..:-)

Sunrise this morning ..-1c

Edited December 22, 2021 by TN9

[Tn9]

9 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Visiting family in the SE this Christmas. Coming back from pub tonight and thick frost here on cars and grass in Wigmore, North Kent.

Sounds weird but not used to frost in the Canadian Rockies. The humidity is too low / not enough moisture around to create frost. Snow and ice yes but frost, not so much.

Off to Scotland just after Christmas....hoping for some snow  

You don't have to hope much in Scotland ...snow is never far away ..Wigmore eh ..so your half way.up the bank .. (well, to the  rockies the north downs are just a bank ) you see here now how we struggle .(for snow).have a nice Christmas 

Edited December 22, 2021 by TN9

[snowrye]

Morning everyone, a quick check in the mad thread, and it's a very sad place at the moment. The nailed on cold and narnia charts, have inevitably gone. Lot's of very upset people, you'd think they'd have learnt by now. 

[Blessed Weather]

Next best thing to snow this morning. A beautiful crisp, calm frosty morning. Temp got down to -2C here just before sunrise. Today looks pleasant with plenty of hazy sunshine around.

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Frosty rose added.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

Morning everyone, a quick check in the mad thread, and it's a very sad place at the moment. The nailed on cold and narnia charts, have inevitably gone. Lot's of very upset people, you'd think they'd have learnt by now. 

Yea you would ,but the proplem I see is the people who get most upset, depressed ,angry,act like they don't usually is coz it effects them deep down emotionally ,don't tell me if it's. Going to snow or you know a cracking storm is brewing you do t get.a little excitement run though your whole persona ..it is sad that it comes to it ,but it's sort of built into people who love the weather the most

[Davegwarn]

Lovely morning here, nice walk in Danbury with my dog. 

[snowrye]

50 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Yea you would ,but the proplem I see is the people who get most upset, depressed ,angry,act like they don't usually is coz it effects them deep down emotionally ,don't tell me if it's. Going to snow or you know a cracking storm is brewing you do t get.a little excitement run though your whole persona ..it is sad that it comes to it ,but it's sort of built into people who love the weather the most

I love a good old storm, and I love the snow even more. Sadly in regards to snow, it seems so hard to get anything decent now. The climate has definitely changed in the last few years. No doubt i'll get another 4 day offering in march.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

I love a good old storm, and I love the snow even more. Sadly in regards to snow, it seems so hard to get anything decent now. The climate has definitely changed in the last few years. No doubt i'll get another 4 day offering in march.

And also if you zoom out a bit ..slightly bigger picture even if things.mesh together to get or drag cold air down it mixes out rapidly...that's a little problem chucked in with everything else..I've said before sometime or other about weather modifications, they know that it works in the short time over  maybe relatively small area ..but the ramifications going on could be horrendous

and as an aside(hope I don't in my lifetime see it) fore instance ..half of the gfs will be telling us to do this to get that, and other half will tell if it's enough to get it ..so people saying the computer doest control the climate ..but my one day gut says it will ..no need for forecasting ..just how much X Y Zee you need 

Edited December 22, 2021 by TN9

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Coldest morning this year recorded on my weather station, lower than any temperature in Jan Feb and March.

 

-4.8c showing this morning and recorded. Pretty cold!

notice the frost on the big leylandii in the background, like giant Christmas trees!

All gone now and 5c...

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Coldest morning this year recorded on my weather station, lower than any temperature in Jan Feb and March.

 

-4.8c showing this morning and recorded. Pretty cold!

notice the frost on the big leylandii in the background, like giant Christmas trees!

All gone now and 5c...

It's still cold down here 2.8 dp has really struggled today too, only at 0.5. I guess France must be chilly.

Edited December 22, 2021 by alexisj9

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's still cold down here 2.8 dp has really struggled today too, only at 0.5. I guess France must be chilly.

France pretty cold in North East parts 

cold to as well to our North but you can see the mild air making inroads into South Western areas 

[Dami]

yeah BBQ has been dusted off as I type

[Blessed Weather]

Last night's minimum for East Anglia courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest:

EAST: Last night was the coldest in the region since April, with -5°C (23°F) recorded at the usual prone sites of Santon Downham, Woburn and Writtle

Source: Twitter @danholley_

[snowblind]

Fourth frost of December so far. Last night was by far the coldest at -3.2. Might finally kill off those summer plants that are still flowering in the garden.

Cold day as well only got to 3 this afternoon, despite some welcome sunshine, and already back down to 2. Shame it won't last.

[Captain Shortwave]

Here is tonight's Christmas update;

GFS

   

Some rain to start over the region, but this tends to become light and patchy during the day. A noticeable south easterly wind will develop and it will remain cloudy throughout.

Temperatures - 6-9C in the morning, dropping to between 3-6C by the afternoon as the continental feed kicks in.

UKMO

      

More of an easterly component to this (Probably ESE). The Fax chart shows two fronts, the one in the north decays (But may bring a wintry mix before dying out), the one is the south likely to be of rain at that time frame.

Temperatures - Again starting around 6-9C, but falling away to around 2-5C by the afternoon. The front in the south could potentially turn wintry overnight into Boxing day.

GEM

   

Winds pretty much from the east by the afternoon on the GEM, this probably has the coldest air mass arrive from the east. Again there is a band of rain through East Anglia, this dies out during the afternoon, this might turn wintry again. Another band of rain pushes northward later on Christmas Day and this has the potential to turn to snow on the leading edge overnight and into Boxing day. A covering of snow is modeled roughly between the A14 corridor and just south of the southern section of the M25. 

Temperatures - 4-8C to start, falling to between 1-4C by the afternoon as the cold air digs in.

 Arpege

   

This model actually pushes the front on Christmas eve into the north sea. As such the morning is generally dry and dull (aybe a little drizzle), another band of rain pushes in later.

Temperatures - 6-9C (No real afternoon drop off)

ECM

   

Like the arpege, probably a mostly dry and cloudy start, but rain will slowly edge north east during the afternoon.

Temperatures - 6-9C (Maybe 10C on the south coast).

Conclusion - Expect a lot of cloud, but in terms of temperatures we could be near (Or little above normal in the south), or we could be potentially pretty darn cold. There are two bands of precipitation, the northern one is either expected to clear the region early on Christmas day, or it will stall and fizzle out. The later option could produce a few flakes of snow. The colder option then results in the chance of something white for parts of the region as the rain pushes into cold air arriving from the east. I would probably favour  the west of region if this occurred (Being inland to avoid any modification off the north sea). However the models are very split and at the moment the milder option seems to be favoured on the public broadcasts.

[Soaring Hawk]

Overnight low here was -3.1°C and a heavy frost - love the frost because it means no mud on the dog to clean off. Such a joy to see the sunrise and a lift to the spirit after such a long period of cloud and dullness.  Today's high was 3.6c at 3pm.  Falling down to 2.8 then from 8pm gradually rising to the current 3°C.  Very light wind again, mostly ESE before veering SSW around 8:30pm.  Stopped off to see what vegetables and salad items were left on way home from work,  Dry when I went in at 8:30 and pouring with rain around 9pm when I came out.  Didn't last long and has registered as .6mm.  Pressure currently 1021.1hPa falling rapidly.

A few of the rare sunrise taken on my phone - posting so I can see in a bigger format - and because this was the highlight of the day.

[Sparky68]

We had a bit of wintry stuff last night at about 9pm but woke up to rain and 6c. Roads were empty which I'll take anytime.

[lassie23]

The dreaded October Fog Index strikes again and scuppers any chance of a white Christmas.