January 1984 snowy cold zonality

[damianslaw]

Mentions of cold zonality and January has me wondering what were the base state conditions during Jan 1984. The month was an exceptionally snowy one in the north half of the UK. Cold zonality the reason. I think the PV was very strong to the NW and proves cold snowy weather can occur without northern blocking or affect of SSW.

I was only 5 at the time and sadly have no memory of the winter. 

Welcome memories and perspectives and understanding what caused the snowy cold zonal weather.

Feb and March 84 also brought alot of polar maritime air as well. Dec 83 however was very mild.

[stewfox]

I thought Jan 1984 was very mild as my teacher (A Levels) had a strong interest in the weather. Probably wrong given the above

[North-Easterly Blast]

On 31/12/2021 at 11:47, damianslaw said:

Mentions of cold zonality and January has me wondering what were the base state conditions during Jan 1984. The month was an exceptionally snowy one in the north half of the UK. Cold zonality the reason. I think the PV was very strong to the NW and proves cold snowy weather can occur without northern blocking or affect of SSW.

I was only 5 at the time and sadly have no memory of the winter. 

Welcome memories and perspectives and understanding what caused the snowy cold zonal weather.

Feb and March 84 also brought alot of polar maritime air as well. Dec 83 however was very mild.

January 1984 was in my opinion up there as one of the most interesting periods of weather - no significant northern blocking and a great deal of polar maritime zonality giving frequent snowfalls to the northern half of the UK - it is a classic example of how it is still possible to see significant snowfall in the UK from an Atlantic flow if it orientates favourably to be of a polar maritime origin instead of tropical maritime.  I am not sure that February 1984 brought as much polar maritime air though - I believe that much of that month was anticyclonic with a fair amount of fog and frost with not much snow about.  I actually think that December 1983 did see some colder weather in the first half, but had a very mild second half especially over the Christmas period, before things improved going into January.

[Thundery wintry showers]

January 1984 was exceptionally cold over eastern Canada and scoops of that cold air kept crossing the North Atlantic to the British Isles.  It was a fairly mild month in the south where there were more incursions of tropical maritime air and the cold polar maritime air had to cross a larger expanse of ocean, but the north stayed mostly under the polar maritime air which was often cold enough to produce snow rather than rain or sleet.  As a result, the south had a high frequency of sleet/snow falling but not much on the ground, while from the north Midlands northwards and on high ground further south both falling and lying snow were frequent.  Northern Ireland and Scotland were particularly snowy.

It was also notable for unusually high thundery activity in many parts of the country.  RAF Waddington near Lincoln reported thunderstorms with snow on the 3rd and 26th.  Thundersnow also occurred quite widely around the 13th-15th.

The snowiest spell of the month was generally the 22nd-25th which had a setup quite similar to that of 5-7 February 1996.  A northerly outbreak on 19 January resulted in a pool of cold air settling over the British Isles, giving some very low minima in Scotland, and then frontal systems pushed in from the west and collided with the cold air, giving heavy snow generally from the north Midlands northwards.  Snow showers followed behind in the westerly flow on the 25th.

Sunshine was well above normal towards the south-east of the UK, but near normal in most other regions.  I'm guessing that this might be because the SE didn't see many showers in the westerly & north-westerly incursions, and frontal systems often passed through overnight.

In recent years I thought of mid to late January 2015 as a watered down version of the same kind of setup.  There have been other approaches - the third weel of January 2018 and around 11 February 2018, and in late January 2019, but the attempts in January & February 2020 generally disappointed at low levels.

As for the rest of winter 1983/84, there was indeed a cold snap around 10-13 December 1983, via a northerly outbreak followed by frontal systems taking a while to clear the cold air mass.  February 1984 also had a chilly-ish north-westerly around the 6th-8th, though I don't think lying snow was widespread from that, even in the north.  Cold weather in late February and March 1984 came about via easterlies. 

 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Thundery wintry showers

[SLEETY]

Jan 1984 was very severe in the highlands from what I remember with 3o ft snow drifts in the Cairngorms,but even low 0level northern areas had decent snowfalls

Edited January 2, 2022 by SLEETY

[Summer8906]

A bit of a no-show in the south unfortunately - along with 1983, 1988 and 1989 this stands out as one of the most Atlantic-driven Januaries of the 1980s. There was a pattern in the 1980s that the leap years (and 1989) produced the snowless winters - all the others had some snow.

Main memories are lots of rain (and consequently, frequent cancellations of games at school), though I do remember one or two short-lived colder, bright periods - it wasn't quite the extreme mildfest seen in 1988 or 1989.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

Thanks for recollections. It was a very snowy month in the Lake District. Many low level valleys had over a foot of snow from mid month onwards. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Going through archives, looks very snowy for northern hills, not much in the south though, but more than same setup would bring now, even 0.3C average higher temps can have a big effect on southern snow

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just recalled another anecdote, my father was working near the west coast of Scotland near Helensburgh in January 1984 and he says that it was mainly wet snow where he was, but that there was deep snow just a little way inland, which would be consistent with the "westerly" snowfalls midmonth.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Thundery wintry showers

[Staffmoorlands]

Slightly off topic but Marco Petagna has just made this excellent tweet showing how snow days have become rarer in January

 

[Atleastitwillbemild]

On 02/01/2022 at 23:30, Staffmoorlands said:

Slightly off topic but Marco Petagna has just made this excellent tweet showing how snow days have become rarer in January

 

This is so profoundly depressing. Not only to look at but to consider how much worse this is going to get in our lifetimes. I know its a very very unpopular idea but sometimes I wish they'd get a move on with climate engineering technology and reverse this somehow. Especially considering how the energy crisis has made countries all round the world start picking up their phones and drunk texting coal and gas like "I miss you, come over..." Even Germany is abandoning their climate targets in the desperate back of the sofa rummage for any cheap source of fossil fuel. We're never ever going to meet our carbon targets so if we want to survive then engineering the climate I think is going to be the only hope we have. Imagine if we could reduce the worlds temp to pre-industrial levels with technology? 

[LetItSnow]

9 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

This is so profoundly depressing. Not only to look at but to consider how much worse this is going to get in our lifetimes. I know its a very very unpopular idea but sometimes I wish they'd get a move on with climate engineering technology and reverse this somehow. Especially considering how the energy crisis has made countries all round the world start picking up their phones and drunk texting coal and gas like "I miss you, come over..." Even Germany is abandoning their climate targets in the desperate back of the sofa rummage for any cheap source of fossil fuel. We're never ever going to meet our carbon targets so if we want to survive then engineering the climate I think is going to be the only hope we have. Imagine if we could reduce the worlds temp to pre-industrial levels with technology? 

The only thing I will say is that it isn't cost that is holding climate engineering back, it's the logistics of having to spread them evenly and also the uncertain affects it could have on weather patterns and particularly rainfall. We wouldn't know until we do it. So for example, temperatures could be reduced back to 1960s levels (or even 19th century levels) but then it could perhaps turn extremely dry in places which combined with shorter growing seasons could have just as much, perhaps even bigger effect on society. I do think it should be looked into though and trialled. June 2021 we were supposed to see the first ever trial but it was postponed indefinitely due to some outcry from scientists. Though some say delaying it is pointless. Others say doing it would make humans lazy and less pushed to lessen carbon emissions. It's an interesting debate. We will ultimately see.

[Norrance]

One of my favourite spells of weather. Quote in italics below is from Trevor Harleys historic weather site. Where I was brought up in Highland Perthshire the snow in late January that year was the deepest since 1963 and by measuring the level snow at 28 inches deep rather than the huge drifts in 1963 maybe even more. It lasted well into February.  Despite being of a PM source temperatures there reached as low as -20C which was quite a rare event even in that area, though that era did manage it several times between 1978 and 1985 though not again until December 2009. 
 

"A westerly month, but it was very wintry in the north.The month was very wet: the wettest January since 1948 in England and Wales. Snowy over Scotland and Northern Ireland. A violent gale in the Midlands on the 11th, and another on the 13th gave a gust of 104 mph in the NE England. On the 13th, the north suffered prolonged snow showers and strong winds. There was a destructive tornado in Doncaster on the 14th, and lightning in Leeds. It was very cold in Scotland: there was a minimum of -23.6C at Grantown-on-Spey on the morning of the 20th, and -20.6C at Aviemore, followed by a maximum of only -8C at Tummel Bridge the next day. More snow in the north on the 21st. On the 23rd snow lay 65 cm deep in parts of Scotland, with many places cut off. Snow lay for 30 days of the month at Kindrogan, 20 days at Glasgow and Edinburgh, but only 6 at Manchester , and just one in London. Another tornado, with large hail, hit Teignmouth on the 26th. It was milder than average in the south."

[Atleastitwillbemild]

On 22/12/2022 at 16:04, LetItSnow! said:

The only thing I will say is that it isn't cost that is holding climate engineering back, it's the logistics of having to spread them evenly and also the uncertain affects it could have on weather patterns and particularly rainfall. We wouldn't know until we do it. So for example, temperatures could be reduced back to 1960s levels (or even 19th century levels) but then it could perhaps turn extremely dry in places which combined with shorter growing seasons could have just as much, perhaps even bigger effect on society. I do think it should be looked into though and trialled. June 2021 we were supposed to see the first ever trial but it was postponed indefinitely due to some outcry from scientists. Though some say delaying it is pointless. Others say doing it would make humans lazy and less pushed to lessen carbon emissions. It's an interesting debate. We will ultimately see.

I think all the concerns are totally valid. It would definitely make humans lazy and then there is the frightening prospect of rapid rebound warming if we cannot maintain the technology and the risks of unknown effects are high. But I always thought that considering we are performing a crazy experiment on our climate right now by warming it so much that it seems like a very strange stance for scientists to take by claiming climate engineering is a "risky experiment". What on earth do they think AGW is? As for the laziness well that is something that no amount of dire warning, campaigning, protests and fear has even made a dent in to so I think we can pretty safely assume at this point that nothing will.  I understand their trepidation but the fear of the unknown consequences seem kind of odd when we are facing exactly that anyway. Its like choosing between two types of execution and saying one type may be dangerous. At least with engineering we have a chance at survival. I guess I just wish we could at least start field tests. I don't honestly think we have that much time.