2022 tornado events, reports and chat

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

One of the most incredible tornado's I've ever seen

Rosalia

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Atmogenic]

A person on reddit took this photo facing ESE of the supercell over Wichita at the time

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Increased to MDT but still wondering if it will be more linear.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

In no particular order

The wedge from Brad Arnold's stream that someone screenshotted

 

[toggerob]

A edited-down 1 minute video of Reed Timmer's drone footage of the Andover Tornado made it on-to the BBC today, the full video is quite something else with the sadly inevitable destruction of property given it sprang in a residential area but the video also shows lots of useful visual data in future ascertaining the way tornadic vorticies form during their early stages.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Been watching Ryan Hall, Reed and all the rest! What a fantastic year this has been so far, and it looks like there’s no letting up yet either. Relentless bouts of activity throughout May looks to be the trend, covering all corners of tornado alley (Texas to The Dakotas) and even as far as Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota over this next week. Wish I was there!  

[Eagle Eye]

PDS tornado warning for this just now

[Eagle Eye]

Enough CAPE for a marginal risk in Dallas? (Nam 3km at 00Z for 0Z on the 8th)

 

[Eagle Eye]

Incredible Tornado yesterday 

 

[Paul]

The storm chase team bagged four tornadoes yesterday - their reports and photos should be along later..

[chionomaniac]

Supercell from yesterday. Five tornados bagged

[Eagle Eye]

Today looking dangerous at the moment.

"...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the central Plains today into tonight. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a couple of intense long-track tornadoes. ...Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes Likely Today Across Parts of Northeast South Dakota, Far Southeast North Dakota and Western and Northern Minnesota... ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low, and an associated powerful 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will eject quickly north-northeastward across the central and northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move northward across the eastern Dakotas. To the east of the surface low track, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place, with MLCAPE forecast to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by late morning. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves into the central Plains this morning, scattered convection is forecast to initiate in central Nebraska. These storms are expected to increase in coverage, moving north-northeastward into eastern South Dakota by early afternoon. A complex of storms is expected to quickly organize, moving north-northeastward across northeastern South Dakota, far southeast North Dakota into western and northern Minnesota. Severe storms and tornadoes appear likely with this convective system from this afternoon into the early evening. Several factors are coming together for an outbreak of severe storms today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. The first is that the system will be particularly organized, as the upper-level low rapidly deepens and the trough takes on a negative tilt. The second is that the exit region of the mid-level jet will be associated with a strong and focused band of large-scale ascent. The mid-level jet is forecast to move out of the base of the trough at nearly 50 knots, which will provide support for an outbreak. The third factor is that the mid-level and low-level jets will become coupled. This will strengthen lift and create strong deep-layer shear very favorable for severe storms. Intense supercells will be likely within a large convective cluster by afternoon. As the low-level jet consolidates in west-central Minnesota to the east of the upper-level low, shear in the boundary layer will become favorable for tornadoes. Tornadoes will be most likely from northeast South Dakota north-northeastward across western Minnesota. Forecast soundings along this corridor, to the west of the low-level jet, have 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range. This, along with curved hodographs, will contribute to a potential for a few strong tornadoes. One or two long-track tornadoes will be possible as well. Both strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range, will be favorable for large hail. The more intense supercells will produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The cluster of storms is expected to gradually organize into a bowing line segment by late afternoon, moving across northwest and north-central Minnesota, where a swath of wind gusts in the 60 to 70 knot range appears likely. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Mid-level flow will be southwesterly across the central Plains and Mid Missouri Valley today, in the wake of a strong upper-level system. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from far eastern Nebraska southward into central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. This will contribute to moderate instability. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along or near the instability axis by late afternoon, with a rapid expansion of convective coverage taking place in the early to mid evening. Forecast soundings during the early evening from Wichita, Kansas northward to just east of Omaha have MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined with 60 to 80 knots of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. Storms are expected to remain discrete for a few hours this evening. This combined with 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, will support a tornado threat. As a line emerges during the evening, a wind-damage threat will likely be maintained with the more intense cells or line segments. The severe threat should continue into tonight, as the line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across Iowa, northwestern Missouri and east-central Kansas."

[The Tall Weatherman]

Yeah this ain’t looking good!! The latest HRRR run shows a selection of PDS Soundings and discrete cells. Look at that SIG TORNADO PARAMETER ! I feel that the SPC should shift the risk more east !

[Eagle Eye]

3 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Yeah this ain’t looking good!! The latest HRRR run shows a selection of PDS Soundings and discrete cells. Look at that SIG TORNADO PARAMETER ! I feel that the SPC should shift the risk more east !

Very similar to December 10th 2021 in that the SPC go more West than what many people think they should and a similar setup in that all the ingredients are there and all it needs is for one Storm to go discrete and we could have a long-track violent tornado on our hands here in my opinion. Not a classic May setup in terms of area but neither was that one.

[Eagle Eye]

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Eagle Eye]

PDS Tornado Watch

"SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms, with embedded supercell structures, will continue to spread north-northeastward from eastern South Dakota into western and central Minnesota through the afternoon. Additional discrete supercell development remains possible farther to the east in southwest Minnesota, and any supercells that form in the warm sector will have the potential to produce a few long-tracked, intense tornadoes. Otherwise, tornadoes, isolated very large hail and damaging gusts of 70-80 mph can be expected with embedded supercells and bowing segments through this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Brainerd MN to 30 miles southwest of Redwood Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements"

Edited May 30, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[matty40s]

Already tornado warned.

[Eagle Eye]

PDS Tornado Warning now

[The Tall Weatherman]

That was a fat BUST, I feel bad for storm chasers. I reckon they saw no tornadoes because most of them were rain wrapped and the "Few" discrete cells in front eating the most prime atmosphere I had ever seen struggled to even rotate all three of them. I do not expect we got a single EF2 plus tornado as all the tornadoes had been reported to have had minimal damage.

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

That was a fat BUST, I feel bad for storm chasers. I reckon they saw no tornadoes because most of them were rain wrapped and the "Few" discrete cells in front eating the most prime atmosphere I had ever seen struggled to even rotate all three of them. I do not expect we got a single EF2 plus tornado as all the tornadoes had been reported to have had minimal damage.

Actually a couple tornado's did have what looked to be EF3 damage and this picture was managed  (cannot remember who took it sorry)