2022 tornado events, reports and chat

[The Tall Weatherman]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Actually a couple tornado's did have what looked to be EF3 damage and this picture was managed  (cannot remember who took it sorry)

Yeah eagle eye I did just see some EF3 damage on Twitter but it does not show where.

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Yeah eagle eye I did just see some EF3 damage on Twitter but it does not show where.

I think it was either Forada, Minnesota or in between Milan and Appleton 

[The Tall Weatherman]

I believe this is the Forada storm damage. This was a weak structure that was nearly destroyed, roof gone, all rooms damaged but not levelled. I would rate this a Low-end EF3.

[The Tall Weatherman]

This is the Ashby tornado, A weak structure had toppled on itself with few plaster walls remaining, water sprayers toppled, and trucks on highway overturned. I would rate this a high-end EF2 for inconsistency in the damage reports.

[The Tall Weatherman]

The soundings tonight looking more advanced than the SPC has issued. Strong curved hodographs, Decent bulk shear and 5000 cape around central Iowa. All we need is early initiation for the storms to pop off anyway before it moves east as a line of thunder and heavy rain.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Can't say I expected to be bumping this thread in mid September but here we go @Eagle Eye 

 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Can't say I expected to be bumping this thread in mid September but here we go @Eagle Eye 

 

Yes, Autumn can sometimes offer a few surprises, there was a small outbreak in October last year I think so I wouldn't be that surprised.

Here's what the SPC have to say about it.

"...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop across Iowa to the middle Mississippi Valley region late this afternoon into evening, offering a few tornadoes, large to very large/destructive hail, and occasional severe gusts. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will be dominated by mean troughing near the West Coast, and a building anticyclone centered over central/ north TX through the period. The western trough will be anchored by a complex cyclone with several embedded vorticity lobes. The cyclone -- cut off for now from the prevailing westerlies -- will dig southward, with its center remaining just off the OR/northern CA coastline. Downstream, a broad fetch of southwesterlies over the Great Basin and Intermountain Region will veer to westerlies with eastward extent, as ridging connected to the TX high amplifies across the Great Plains. A shortwave trough -- evident in moisture- channel imagery over parts of southeastern MT and eastern WY -- will move through the building mean ridge over the north-central Plains today, then reach parts of MN, western IA and eastern NE by 00Z. The southern part of this trough should be reinforced by convectively generated vorticity tonight, while the northern part crosses the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a weak low over the MN Arrowhead, across northwestern WI, southeastern MN, northern/western IA, southeastern NE, and north-central KS, becoming quasistationary to a low over northwestern KS. The KS low should move eastward through the day, along the front, to near FNB by 00Z, when the front will extend from there northeastward across southern/eastern IA to eastern Lake Superior. By 12Z, the front should extend across southern Lower MI and parts of northern/western IL to northern MO, though its baroclinicity over IL/MO may be overwhelmed on the mesoscale by that from prior convection. An outflow boundary was drawn from central/southwestern IL across MO near a STL-JEF-MCI line, and over northeastern KS north of TOP. This boundary will move northeastward over northern MO and into parts of southern/eastern IA through this afternoon and early evening, likely merging with the front on its western segment. ...IA/MO/IL/IN... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the front and retreating outflow boundary late this afternoon into this evening over IA. Initial mode should include supercells, one or two of which may be persistent and cyclic enough for a threat of tornadoes (some possibly strong) and/or significant, damaging hail. An ongoing area of clouds/precip, and embedded precip/thunderstorms was evident in radar composites from central IL to portions of central/eastern MO. This activity is expected to continue weakening through the remainder of this morning, while its trailing outflow boundary begins to retreat/reposition northward across northern MO in the face of low-level WAA and diurnal heating. Some uncertainty remains as to how far north the favorable airmass near the boundary will retreat and surface cold front. However, given the latest convective trends compared to assorted CAM guidance since 00Z, and likelihood of diurnal heating to its north, the general idea remains on track for strong surface-based destabilization to occur this afternoon well into southern and perhaps part of central/eastern IA. That destabilization should continue into the evening ahead of convection that develops over IA as well, supporting its maintenance and potential for upscale growth this evening. The environment south of the front and near the retreating boundary (which will broaden and become more shallow/diffuse with time) is reasonably progged to be favorable for both early-stage supercells, followed by upscale clustering/MCS development tonight. Forecast soundings suggest steep low/middle-level lapse rates atop upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, yielding MLCAPE commonly in the 2000- 3500 J/kg range south of the front. Mass response and large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will strengthen vertical shear in tandem with the front and boundary, such that effective-shear magnitudes of 45-60 kt may be realized, along with effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range. A small, unconditional significant-tornado area is being added within the "enhanced" risk, and may need to be adjusted some as mesoscale trends warrant. The already supercell-favorable ambient environment will be augmented in the vorticity-maximized remnant-boundary corridor, where the largest hodographs and very rich boundary-layer moisture should be maintained. Any relatively discrete storm remaining in this environment during maturity -- and especially into the time window when the LLJ enlarges hodographs still more -- could become an intense and cyclic (but perhaps also heavy-precip) supercell. A damaging-wind and sporadic large-hail threat may persist through much of the night over parts of central/northern IL into IN, both with the MCS and any convection to its northeast in the strongest WAA/moisture-transport regime."

[Eagle Eye]

Gorgeous Storm structure, oh and two of my top 3 favourite Storm chasers met each other.

 

 

Here's loads of stuff that hasn't been shared here yet that I thought people might like to see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Interesting day 3 enhanced risk over parts of Texes and surrounding states.

What looks to be a QLCS with the possibility of multiple different line segments and embedded Supercells. As well as that, there may be some pre-frontal cells associated with the warm air advection and you would expect a pre-frontal lobe of vorticity. Although, the extent of CIN ahead of the QLCS is varied and so would be difficult to tell the chances of those potential cells forming.

Updrafts suggest these should be decently strong, perhaps some moderate hail associated.

CAPE should be good enough and there does seem to be a fairly hooked shape near the top of some of those hodographs mixed with the CAPE, embedded Supercells are therefore possible given that setup Although most of the line seems to be less hooked with the moderate shearing so it's unlikely to go away from being a QLCS. Hard to tell for now how broken up it'll be with some slight variation between model runs.

There is significant WAA (Warm Air Advection) and also cold air moving down supporting a highly active and energetic environment that Storms like.

Significant rain is possible based off the PWAT and so it looks to be a high precipitation setup this making it difficult to see tornado's.

Dewpoint checks out as being a classic setup with a sort of half dry line.

There's alright shearing but most of it is behind the system in Oklahoma.

The soundings look really supportive of an integrated Supercell and squall line mesh, looks supportive for moderate to high CAPE and the hodograph looks hooked but this was taken from the sounding of a forecasted embedded Supercell and the other hodographs are more suggestive of a QLCS with some more pronounced curvature for some embedded Supercells.

[Eagle Eye]

Day 1 and is now an enhanced risk with a 10% hatched Risk.

I've picked out a sounding to have a look at.

I've circled a few bits to have a look at if you're confused on how to interpret soundings.

Circled in white

The EL (Equilibrium Level).

The level at which an air parcel is no longer buoyant. A parcel may still rise above this but only if there's strong kinetic energy in vertical movement.

Circled in green

The LFC (Level of Free Convection).

The level at which a parcel of air will begin convecting wiyhout any other forcing.

Circled in pink

LCL (lifted condensation level).

The level at which an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically will become saturated.

Circled in yellow (may be difficult to see)

CCL (convective condensation level).

Level at which the cloud base would form, you can find it where the deepoint and temperature profiles cross.

Circled in white

CT (convective temperature)

The surface temperature that has to be reached for pure convective clouds to form (very rare and needs a very volatile lower atmosphere). It's found by following the dry adiabatic at the CCL level down to the surface (as circled). If the CT is reached at the surface then clouds will form at the CCL.

Surprising to be going into this thread in November, late into 'fall season' @Kirkcaldy Weather. I think tonight could spring a surprise just need to make sure it doesn't over convective and form into linear segments early on.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Surprised there's not more talk of this here,moderate risk, 15% hatched.

@The Tall Weatherman

The SPC's wording is scary.

"Forecast soundings show very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear profiles for updraft rotation and tornadoes (including strong tornadoes)."

Edited November 4, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[RebsAbbo]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Surprised there's not more talk of this here,moderate risk, 15% hatched.

@The Tall Weatherman

The SPC's wording is scary.

"Forecast soundings show very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear profiles for updraft rotation and tornadoes (including strong tornadoes)."

I’m watching Reed Timmer on his live FB feed tonight….nothing formed yet but he’s talking about seeing some signs of rotation…

[Eagle Eye]

Semi-discrete Supercell, probably going to form the first tornado of the risk.

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

Two dangerous tornado's in the last few minutes including multiple PDS warnings (could only find pictures of 1 for now). This one looks especially significant, possibly above EF3 but too early to tell of course.

2 tornado emergencies.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherArc]

Hi all, just seen that the SPC has issued a day seven slight (Tuesday the 29th) for much of the same area that was affected by the November 4th-5th outbreak

Just by going off the ECMWF it does look quite interesting, dew points 70+ widely across eastern Texas, CAPE in the range of 1500-2600 J/kg and some good shear. Obviously, this is day seven so lots can change but it's interesting that the SPC are so confident to issue the risk. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on this system. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

22 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

Hi all, just seen that the SPC has issued a day seven slight (Tuesday the 29th) for much of the same area that was affected by the November 4th-5th outbreak

Just by going off the ECMWF it does look quite interesting, dew points 70+ widely across eastern Texas, CAPE in the range of 1500-2600 J/kg and some good shear. Obviously, this is day seven so lots can change but it's interesting that the SPC are so confident to issue the risk. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on this system. 

 

Very good dewpoints stretching up into parts of Arkansas from mixing in with air from the Gulf of Mexico as you said. That dryline is looking very significant though and that may start some vigorous convection. The thing is, the GFS is too low of a resolution to properly resolve the gravity wave effect on convection and so we should start getting strong convection when the CAM's come into view of this potential setup and that's when we'll know the mode.

For now, the significant tornadic potential may be fairly limited with the best hodographs being fairly stretched but it's a long time away and only a GFS sounding. I think damaging wind gusts may be quite a high risk based off this initial setup but hail not looking major (although this is subject to change I would imagine). That's supported by what the SPC are saying for now:

"Intense vertical shear will overlap with this unseasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the surging cold front, supporting conditions favorable for damaging gusts and tornadoes."

[WeatherArc]

The NAM is now fully in range for Tuesday's event, definitely a concerning run going off sig tor values. However, it is the NAM so I am quite wary about completely believing it this far out

Interestingly the NAM pushes the CAPE and instability much further north than the GFS (into an area of better shear) will have to watch if any other models follow this.

Certainly an interesting run, however like I said it is the NAM so take it with a grain of salt  It will definitely be interesting what the next few runs of all models show (and when the CAMS come into view)

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

The SPC has issued a day 3 30% hatched risk for most of the lower and mid Mississippi valley 

The wording is very strong- "a significant severe weather event is likely across the region" "a few strong tornadoes will be possible"

"A tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, if the current forecast parameters, such as instability, deep-layer shear and low-level shear remain at current forecast levels"

Just look how large that sig tor area is! (Showing a large area where conditions are favourable for tornadoes) Definitely a concerning few runs from the NAM showing favourable conditions for strong, long track tornadoes with discrete supercells, interestingly it looks like multiple rounds of storms are possible, however until the CAMS get into range it's difficult to say. A significant outbreak is definitely on the cards here.

-From 06z on the NAMS 06z run.

-From 03z on the NAMS 06z run.

The CAPE/hodograph chart shows a corridor to the east (Eastern Arkansas, Western Mississippi and Northern Louisiana) where CAPE and strong hodographs interact.

Interestingly, the NAM shows a large warm sector and a very slow cold front. The front doesn't reach the main area of storms until around 12z, meaning there is the possibility for multiple rounds of storms. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on every run from now on, this event does have the potential to be particularly nasty.

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, WeatherArc said:

 

 

Very interesting few days on the models

Unfortunately , hodographs are getting a lot more curved which means that strong tornado's are a genuine possibility. That classic C shaped hodo hasn't appeared fully yet so hail is unlikely to be large hail but as the SPC so "Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be steep, which should support a hail threat with the more intense cells."

What needs to be considered is the time of year, Gulf moisture is still quite high and with that advecting northward mixing in with the colder troughs, we get a large line of extremely dry air and very moist air. I don't think that over convection will be too much of a problem as over saturation isn't looking likely at the moment and there will be at least semi-discrete cells for most of the event and this is where we see similarities with previous events not to be mentioned. I don't think it'll be as bad as December 10th but the timing is similar and the moisture returns ate relatively similar. It doesn't seem as volatile of an atmosphere nor as strong of a shearing just yet but that can still change.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

It's gone day 2 moderate, this is looking extremely dangerous now...

We're going to see a significant advection of moisture, dewpoints to go up 20-30 F in some areas and the mid-level jet to increase rapidly, this has the ingredients.

Right now...

SPC forecast

"Hodographs are forecast to be long and curved, suggesting the environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. A long-track and/or significant tornadoes will be possible, with the most favorable corridor located from far northeast Louisiana northeastward across northwest Mississippi. An earlier and further southwest convective initiation would be most favorable for a tornado outbreak, which would give the storms more time to move northeastward through the most unstable air. Supercells will also have potential for wind damage and isolated large hail."

Looking at the NAM

Clear dewpoint advection to be large scale and even more significant than modelled yesterday...

As shown on the temperature advection

Strong bulk shear...

Clearly very good moisture pooling causing an increase in surface CAPE and hodographs look to have their curve well pronounced within the highest SB CAPE area especially over Louisiana and eventually Mississippi.

A couple soundings and hodographs showing supportive dynamics for tornado's, possibly long-tracked especially closer to the surface.

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Update, still looking scary...

[WeatherArc]

A concerning run from the Swiss 4x4 to say the least..... 

(Not sure how good/biased this model is though)

 

[Eagle Eye]

9 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

A concerning run from the Swiss 4x4 to say the least..... 

(Not sure how good/biased this model is though)

 

It tends to be fairly accurate in Europe so if it gains support then this really is concerning although I'm not sure what it's latest runs are looking like.

Dewpoints and WAA are surging from the gulf now, stream of moisture is looking to be a bit more significant than forecasted on the NAM so I would suggest the Swiss may gain support with it's environment supporting significant Supercells, the low-level jet will increase over the next few hours as well.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

4 Panel view.

Hail has trended more significant due to the increasing discreteness and better lapse-rates.

Look at how curved those hodo's are getting...

Just seen the SPC's text

"Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms -- some capable of long- tracked tornadoes with EF3+ damage potential -- will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region and Mid-South. Large, locally damaging hail and strong-severe thunderstorm gusts also are expected over the region"

Edited November 29, 2022 by Eagle Eye