2022 tornado events, reports and chat

[WeatherArc]

SPC has slightly increased the size of the moderate risk

Strong wording with this outlook-"This corridor may see multiple waves of severe convection as storms redevelop upstream through the evening. Along with the strong tornado threat, very large hail and damaging wind gusts may occur with these storms. Consideration was made to introduce a small HIGH risk, but still too much uncertainty in the exact corridor of highest risk since moisture is not yet in place and there is no surface boundary to focus on."

Makes me wonder if we may see a high risk at the 20z outlook. However regardless of whether it stays moderate or gets upgraded a high-end event now looks likely. 

Nadocasts outlook

Also is the EML stronger than models predicted? 

Edited November 29, 2022 by WeatherArc

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Environment primed from morning often a concerning sign 

 

[WeatherArc]

PDS tornado watch to be issued

SPC-"A PDS tornado watch will be needed by 19z/1pm CT for portions of northern Louisiana, extreme southeast Arkansas and into central Mississippi. Tornadoes, a couple potentially long-track and strong, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible into the evening hours"

"A particular dangerous situation is expected to develop across northeast LA into central MS through this evening as multiple supercells track across the area. Tornadoes, a couple strong and long-track, will be possible, in addition to large hail (scattered 2+ inch) and damaging gusts."

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by matty40s

[Eagle Eye]

 

Thanks to @Liam Burge for linking this to me.

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[Eagle Eye]

"Later on into the day on Tuesday (Day 6), continued eastward advance of the deep upper cyclone, and an occluding surface low over the Nebraska vicinity, is expected. As the cold front continues eastward across the southern Plains and into the Ozarks/Arklatex, high theta-e low-level air and modest heating should yield ample CAPE -- particularly across Louisiana and into Arkansas during the afternoon. With a very strong/veering flow field with height that should prove quite supportive of severe/supercell storms, risk for tornadoes is apparent, along with damaging winds and hail. This risk will shift gradually eastward in tandem with frontal advance, likely crossing into the Mississippi and western Tennessee vicinity into the overnight hours."

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow's the day, quite large scale dew point advection and quite high PWAT (but I don't think over saturated) profiles expected, leading to cluster convection and a potential wind and tornado threat. The main tornado threat may initially exist in the pre cluster convection with increased cell isolation. Hence probably a more updraft based system that might not get 'overdriven' by outflow dominance though it's hard to tell how isolated they will be at this stage nor how elevated either. Then it shifts to the more linear cluster (potentially QLCS) for 'brief spin ups' but in such an environment, they might pack quite the punch but it depends on how linearly the mode gets and how stretched out we see the hodographs.

SRH looks slightly undershot for the southern portions of the risk but the further into Louisiana you go and the better the SRH looks.

[Eagle Eye]

 

[Eagle Eye]

That looks quite serious.

Not sure if this is the same tornado or not.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Moderate risk. Renegade Supercellular threat for tonight with discrete to semi-discrete cells (eventually clustering), I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a significant tornado, it's uptrended significantly and the moisture returns are looking very conductive.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Hig prob PDS watch 

SPC Watch Hazard Probabilities Table: Tornado Watch 588

WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV

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Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion...

 

WBRZ News 2 Louisiana : Baton Rouge, LA | Live Stream

WWW.WBRZ.COM

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WBRZ's Live Streaming Video.

 

[WeatherArc]

wow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

O

M 

G

 

[snowrye]

Been watching the tornado tackles on you tube, unbelievable what's going on out there, every storm is either producing, or trying to produce a tornado

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

It's got lots of free roam to utilise the parameters 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

[WeatherArc]

Hi all, hope everyone's enjoying their Christmases- just seen the SPCs day 4-8 outlook, noting the potential for severe weather next Monday-"Models are beginning to suggest next Monday (day 8 )  may need to be a day of focus for severe weather potential compared to other previous days."

The latest GFS run (12z) is very interesting to say the least!

60+ Dewpoints extending all the way up into southern Illinois 

Very strong 850 mb winds ranging from around 55-80 Kts

Cape values around 700 J/kg into northern Arkansas

Some very strong SRH values as well

The 0z sounding from Southern Arkansas 

The 03z sounding from Southern Illinois 

We are still a week away so things will change but this day may need watching closely-will see what the latest ECMWF thinks of it.