Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The GEFS?

Is that the GEFS, where every single ensemble member predicted a proper cold spell around Christmas, which spectacularly failed?

If you're going to try and prove a point, I wouldn't be using the GEFS for it.

In all my years on here I have seen a few predicted cold spells disappear, but I have never seen a predicted PV dominant spell disappear .

That is why I'm confident of no proper cold before month end.

But the thing is you have and we all have its almost like your suffering from confirmation bias.

it was only a week ago that it was mild for the next ten days and hey look it’s not  so mild today or tomorrow or Thursday etc etc

Mild weather at day ten can disappear just as easily as cold weather, hot weather in summer suffers the same fate just as cool weather in summer dose.

The GEFS was not alone in seeing the cold spell prior to Christmas but then I reckon that’s down to you confirmation Bias

[Ruzzi]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The GEFS?

Is that the GEFS, where every single ensemble member predicted a proper cold spell around Christmas, which spectacularly failed?

If you're going to try and prove a point, I wouldn't be using the GEFS for it.

In all my years on here I have seen a few predicted cold spells disappear, but I have never seen a predicted PV dominant spell disappear .

That is why I'm confident of no proper cold before month end.

And equally if you're going to write off a full month on the 4th.... Don't base it on a day 10 chart of one ECM run which is what you based your point on. 

Day 10 ECM charts aren't exactly renowned for being on the money either. 

January is not written off, irrespective of what any output is showing.... Its the 4th!!

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’re not wrong, what a great set of GEFS. Still some ridiculous ideas of January being a write off on here,  just because day 10 charts don’t look great - then 4 days later you could have something like the control run!! 
 

Im sure some just say it’s a write off to wind people up , when no one including the pro’s have a clue what the end of Jan holds!! 

Your correct Ali no one does have an idea at 10 14 days, hence that chart is  redundant

Edited January 4, 2022 by swfc

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The GEFS?

Is that the GEFS, where every single ensemble member predicted a proper cold spell around Christmas, which spectacularly failed?

If you're going to try and prove a point, I wouldn't be using the GEFS for it.

In all my years on here I have seen a few predicted cold spells disappear, but I have never seen a predicted PV dominant spell disappear .

That is why I'm confident of no proper cold before month end.

It's not only the GEFS. GFS Op, GEM and EPS increasingly come up with more favourable set ups too, but we just can't see the individual FI members as neatly for the EPS as we can for GEFS.

My point is that there is not a 'predicted' PV dominant spell day 10 and later, so it doesn't have to disappear either.

Oh, and before Christmas, part of the ensemble consistently showed the Christmas cold spell failing, it was just a lower probability, but lower probabilities can verify too. And there was proper cold nearby around Christmas, as I in Holland can testify to, experiencing the coldest Christmas since 1995.

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

There are zero building blocks to cold across any NWP output currently. No point in trying to spin it any other way. Absolutely dire for the heart of winter. Would be amazed if Jan doesn’t come in above average temp wise.

Zero?... Any NWP?...

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

Extraordinary cold for the NE US if this t168 comes off…which I think it will.  Wow that’s cold…

As regards to our HP will it/won’t it ridge north, NE /NW….I think we’ll have it oscillating around for a while yet, affecting the South more…..and we’ll see nothing of real ‘cold interest’ until we get into final 3rd of Jan where potentially we’ll see some charts of real interest, ‘watch’ zone
 

BFTP

 

  Interesting you say that BFTP regarding the final third of January does that or would it have anything to do with lunar cycle or the solar cycle?

[weathercold]

8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Zero?... Any NWP?...

Oh sorry …the good old CFS - dished out during desperate times like this If only it was accurate.

Edited January 4, 2022 by weathercold

[swilliam]

31 minutes ago, swfc said:

Based on past history I'd suspect that the gfs/ec  won't be a million miles away. Granted things can change but that's generally when a cold forecast counts down from day 10-7. Looking at the nhp and subsequent synoptics the static high scenario drifting south is the favourite outcome imo

Well before the cold was shown the modelling was showing something similar to what is predicted now, a slow moving high near us. People were complaining then as now nothing interesting showing and that we would have a boring Xmas. Then all of a sudden the High started being predicted to move NW and the discussion was around how far it would get and that it would never be far enough. In the end of course it went too far and we missed the cold all together. We have the same discussion here and I agree with VB that anything could change at this timescale, I have no idea why people just assume when cold is not shown it will always be right. I think having the high near us is a pretty good starting point - if it was over Iberia or France then  this would be a real concern. Anything could happen here beyond about 6/7 days so it is just a question of being patient to see what does occur. You may be right and it ends up being South of us and this is probably the highest % outcome. However there are plenty of other options  - especially with the PV on the move.  

[swfc]

1 minute ago, swilliam said:

Well before the cold was shown the modelling was showing something similar to what is predicted now, a slow moving high near us. People were complaining then as now nothing interesting showing and that we would have a boring Xmas. Then all of a sudden the High started being predicted to move NW and the discussion was around how far it would get and that it would never be far enough. In the end of course it went too far and we missed the cold all together. We have the same discussion here and I agree with VB that anything could change at this timescale, I have no idea why people just assume when cold is not shown it will always be right. I think having the high near us is a pretty good starting point - if it was over Iberia or France then  this would be a real concern. Anything could happen here beyond about 6/7 days so it is just a question of being patient to see what does occur. You may be right and it ends up being South of us and this is probably the highest % outcome. However there are plenty of other options  - especially with the PV on the move.  

I'm not saying there arnt anymore options and that's OK. The charts I'm looking at currently don't show anything in regard to high pressure moving north in any direction. It's not a forecast it's just how the nhp and synoptics are atm. 

[Frosty.]

It looks to me as though coldies will have to roll with the punches judging by the latest ECM run and other output, for the height of winter, it’s not very inspiring, indeed, insipid is probably a good description.. …anyway, that’s all folks!  

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Oh sorry …the good old CFS - dished out during desperate times like this If only it was accurate.

It shows your statement to be wrong though- and several of the GEFS are showing cold solutions also.  

[stodge]

Evening all

Various shades of anticyclonic would seem to be the message from the 12Z output this evening. From Dublin Bay to London Town, the core of the HP is to be found points south and perhaps west by this time next week. That's T+192 from ECM, JMA,GEM and GFS.

Not much to add really - GFS Control teases in far FI while OP shows frankly next to no change. The jet looks too powerful to offer full blown retrogression yet too weak to send the HP back south. There' some cautious linkage east to the MLB over Russia but nothing of huge import. Sometimes under these set-ups we can get some temperature inversion as the very mild air gets diverted to the north west and the south and south east can perhaps get a light continental feed. Plenty to be resolved on that next week.

[Stu_London]

Looks like anyone looking for cold is feeding off model scraps (i.e. northerly topplers) for a short while.

A few signs in FI that the mobility might start to slow down and some more robust blocking starting to appear (none exactly where we want it just yet), so it is probably a case of get through the next 7-10 days and then see where we are.

Anyone writing off winter, or indeed January, might be a tad premature for now.

 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can I just ask, would anyone agree currently there's nothing on any model showing any retrogression, Heighths moving north east  etc atm. TIA

Is your question about ops only or ensemble means or individual ensemble members?

 

 

[weathercold]

12 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

It shows your statement to be wrong though- and several of the GEFS are showing cold solutions also.  

Look forward to seeing this evolve …

[Mike Poole]

Evening all.  Just want to show the four T216 NH charts from the 12z:

Do not look at the UK - we know that is high pressure of one orientation or another.  Instead look at the PV, ECM has it rather slack, GFS has it piling into the eastern side, GEM shows a split with a chance of a ridge up the middle, and JMA shows it encroaching from the NW allowing heights into Scandi. 

If the trop PV was coupled to such a strong ~40 m/s strat vortex, you wouldn’t see this variability, the trop PV would be roaring away in its preferred location at day 9 and probably day 19 as well.  But this is not the case, the PV approaching its strongest around this time of year, is there, but is to some extent free to move or split.  This is what we go into the last 2 thirds of January with, and all those of you who write January off, or even write the whole of winter off, or even (1 post) practically write every winter ever again off, are just reacting to emotions.  There is no reason at all why a cold spell should not be the outcome of this high pressure spell, that is not to say there will be, it is just that we cannot know at the moment, it is entirely possible for the vortex to be punctured in one of the right places…  

Finally ECM clusters in the longer range T264+:

All 3 clusters suck the high pressure to our NW leaving us in the Atlantic Ridge (purple border) pattern.  

Edited January 4, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Can I just ask, would anyone agree currently there's nothing on any model showing any retrogression, Heighths moving north east  etc atm. TIA

I would say that is it quite a rare thing to see these days. 

The form horse for an easterly is often wedge of heights toppling over from Iceland area.

After that I would say a displaced Siberian High 

Then perhaps heights retrogressing to the north east.

The rarest being an arctic high dropping down over Scandinavia 

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Look forward to seeing this evolve …

So am I...

I  (partly) agree with you regarding January, it's highly unlikely there will be anything particularly wintry for the next week or two but after that, some models are showing an evolution to more substantial winter weather. Even when the "building blocks" are in place, it's a fine balance to  hit the jackpot on our little island but we can never discount any chance of it happening.

[Ice Day]

Well, despite the moribund op runs over the last few days I'm not quite ready to throw the towel in for January yet.  Granted, it's likely that we're going to be looking towards the final third for *potential* interest, however, calling the month a bust with 27 days still remaining is, to be quite honest, ridiculous.  Of course, the form horse is that mild will win out, but that's just our default climate unfortunately. 

The GEFS show a few routes to cold in deep FI, there's a few corkers in there.   

No, I wouldn't hang my hat on them either but nothing can be comprehensively ruled out at this stage.  Keep the faith, and so what if it doesn't turn cold, it's only the bloody weather!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Middle of Jan.

Sucks.

those fortunate to be getting snow thurs and fri should enjoy it,it looks a long long way until the next chance.

Scandi trough forming here, though which would create a deep cold pool to our NE, think the high would then retract west and north west thereafter.. could be a long slow olf process. 

[damianslaw]

A few posts in here today should be in the model moans thread, if you are just going to moan that the models don't show cold, please do so in the moan thread and not in here! Thank you!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

  Interesting you say that BFTP regarding the final third of January does that or would it have anything to do with lunar cycle or the solar cycle?

 

Of course.  Nothing to look at really for next 2 weeks, although worth following the NH ‘movement’ 

 

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bobbydog]

I always think, winter model watching is like watching England in the World Cup. 

We go 1-0 up early on, then the opposition equalises in the second half. We get numerous chances and shots on goal, only for them to be saved or called offside. We then sit frustratingly through extra time, only to lose on penalties....

Thankfully, we've had a lot more epic winters than we've won world cups so the chances are much higher... 

"They think it's all over..." 

Not yet.... 

 

 

[Nick2373]

1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:

And equally if you're going to write off a full month on the 4th.... Don't base it on a day 10 chart of one ECM run which is what you based your point on. 

Day 10 ECM charts aren't exactly renowned for being on the money either. 

January is not written off, irrespective of what any output is showing.... Its the 4th!!

Spot on I said this earlier.

[LRD]

21 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I always think, winter model watching is like watching England in the World Cup. 

We go 1-0 up early on, then the opposition equalises in the second half. We get numerous chances and shots on goal, only for them to be saved or called offside. We then sit frustratingly through extra time, only to lose on penalties....

Thankfully, we've had a lot more epic winters than we've won world cups so the chances are much higher... 

"They think it's all over..." 

Not yet.... 

 

 

Model watching in winter is more like watching your club side fighting relegation

You wait and hope things will get better despite things looking very unpromising and, often, downright grim. Sometimes you think there is potential in the side to get out of trouble, grasping any straw that makes you think things will get improve and that the team will start climbing the table. You do even get occasional, genuine hope that things will turn out fine. But that hope is often snuffed out and there is another long run of poor results. It finally dawns upon you that you're deluding yourself and you know that the team are doomed

Towards the end of the season and the inevitable happens, you then start to look forward to next season in the hope things will be better. Sometimes you're rewarded with some good results very near the end of the season - but it's too late to care by then so, deep down, you realise they're hollow victories and are no consolation for another rubbish, very disappointing season.

Ahem, on topic does anyone know what's happened to the GFS ensemble spaghetti graphs? They're not updating