Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Well, despite the moribund op runs over the last few days I'm not quite ready to throw the towel in for January yet.  Granted, it's likely that we're going to be looking towards the final third for *potential* interest, however, calling the month a bust with 27 days still remaining is, to be quite honest, ridiculous.  Of course, the form horse is that mild will win out, but that's just our default climate unfortunately. 

The GEFS show a few routes to cold in deep FI, there's a few corkers in there.   

No, I wouldn't hang my hat on them either but nothing can be comprehensively ruled out at this stage.  Keep the faith, and so what if it doesn't turn cold, it's only the bloody weather!

Think I might have asked this before but do you have a link to these GEFS charts?

Cheers

[Uncertainty]

GEM extended - Atlantic ridge

GEFS Extended - Atlantic ridge

NAEFS - Atlantic ridge

EPS - Atlantic ridge

The last time we had such good agreement in the extended was the Mid-Late December pressure build up which came off.

Its been a consistent and strong signal over the past few days. With the latest eps/gefs containing some ‘eyebrow raising’ members who build Greenland ridges - hard to fathom those verifying but a Dec 2015 / Feb 2020 redux it is not, at least not yet.

So the U.K. high (flattish or strong) —> Atlantic ridge (amplitude tbc) evolution is strongly supported across the modelling suites. 

Unsurprisingly, it’s manifesting in the NOAA charts. This is the one to watch over the next few days. Those wanting a more significant northerly spell need to see the positive anoms south of Iceland head poleward in the coming days.

Unlikely, but not impossible. 

[Uncertainty]

18 minutes ago, LRD said:

Model watching in winter is more like watching your club side fighting relegation

You wait and hope things will get better despite things looking very unpromising and, often, downright grim. Sometimes you think there is potential in the side to get out of trouble, grasping any straw that makes you think things will get improve and that the team will start climbing the table. You do even get occasional, genuine hope that things will turn out fine. But that hope is often snuffed out and there is another long run of poor results. It finally dawns upon you that you're deluding yourself and you know that the team are doomed

Towards the end of the season and the inevitable happens, you then start to look forward to next season in the hope things will be better. Sometimes you're rewarded with some good results very near the end of the season - but it's too late to care by then so, deep down, you realise they're hollow victories and are no consolation for another rubbish, very disappointing season.

Ahem, on topic does anyone know what's happened to the GFS ensemble spaghetti graphs? They're not updating

Eh? We had lots of snow events last year and a substantial easterly, a beast from the east a few years back. It’s the FOURTH of JANUARY. It is not ‘inevitable’. A few days ago the extended range was progged to be +NAO now it’s Atlantic ridge we have NO idea what’s going to happen beyond that and there is PLENTY of time to get a big time cold spell with a  strong EQBO (which has never failed to deliver a cold winter (might do this time but you’d still expect at least one cold shot), an east based nina and an improving Atlantic SST profile. Yes the sun pepped up recently but the 2 year lag from solar minimum anomaly chart screams blocking. I’d be shocked if we don’t get a cold spell between now and end of Feb. 
I understand you’re frustration pal it’s a miserable mugs game hoping for cold / thunder in the U.K. but you simply can’t say anything’s  ‘inevitable’ with 2 months to go till the end of a season. 

[Premiere Neige]

9 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Eh? We had lots of snow events last year and a substantial easterly, a beast from the east a few years back. It’s the FOURTH of JANUARY. It is not ‘inevitable’. A few days ago the extended range was progged to be +NAO now it’s Atlantic ridge we have NO idea what’s going to happen beyond that and there is PLENTY of time to get a big time cold spell with a  strong EQBO (which has never failed to deliver a cold winter (might do this time but you’d still expect at least one cold shot), an east based nina and an improving Atlantic SST profile. Yes the sun pepped up recently but the 2 year lag from solar minimum anomaly chart screams blocking. I’d be shocked if we don’t get a cold spell between now and end of Feb. 
I understand you’re frustration pal it’s a miserable mugs game hoping for cold / thunder in the U.K. but you simply can’t say anything’s  ‘inevitable’ with 2 months to go till the end of a season. 

Agree. Just watched a program on BBC 4 about extreme weather.  They were talking about how on the 17th of January 1947 the temperature was 14°c with no sign of what was to come. 6 days later the snow started falling and it snowed somewhere in Britain every day for 8 weeks. 

I'm not saying we're in for another 1947 but what is clear is that we still can't accurately predict nature beyond a few days. The models showed us this a couple of weeks ago. 

[ItIsGee]

3 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Agree. Just watched a program on BBC 4 about extreme weather.  They were talking about how on the 17th of January 1947 the temperature was 14°c with no sign of what was to come. 6 days later the snow started falling and it snowed somewhere in Britain every day for 8 weeks. 

I'm not saying we're in for another 1947 but what is clear is that we still can't accurately predict nature beyond a few days. The models showed us this a couple of weeks ago. 

would be nice though!

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Agree. Just watched a program on BBC 4 about extreme weather.  They were talking about how on the 17th of January 1947 the temperature was 14°c with no sign of what was to come. 6 days later the snow started falling and it snowed somewhere in Britain every day for 8 weeks. 

I'm not saying we're in for another 1947 but what is clear is that we still can't accurately predict nature beyond a few days. The models showed us this a couple of weeks ago. 

It depends how you classify accurately. 

As I stated a few pages back, I have seen the models fail on predictions of cold spells, but I have never seen them fail on predictions of zonality with a strong NE Canadian PV.

 

[nobble]

Call the hunt for cold off it’s here !!

now let’s start the hunt for

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Those of throw in the towel….watch the NH synoptics.  There’s something pretty ‘unusual’ down the line.  Snow and cold records are getting annihilated across the NH, as have warmth records (extreme switches, look at Eastern Seaboard US) as they were in SH winter, lots of winter to come yet I suspect.  Chins up…

 

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Daniel*]

Plenty of time, for us in SE seems unusual to get a wintry before late January it’s often February we have relied on recent years I wonder whether this winter will continue with that theme.

regarding outlook I’ve seen worse and I’ve seen a lot better, I’d call it a holding phase so overall quite seasonal albeit early next week looks very mild, but then high pressure centring more WNW bringing a lot of average/boring weather. Interestingly Atlantic westerlies continue to have little influence what happened to our storms of old? 
 

I expect to see a shake up in second half of January… it’s unusual for slow weather patterns to continue for weeks and weeks, this is no winter 1988/89 sure December was mild but it could have gone differently, Scandinavia and NE Europe have had quite a harsh winter so far the cold has never been that far from our shores but it may as well be 10,000 miles away sometimes.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Daniel*

[northwestsnow]

18z is a pub run classic into FI....

[bluearmy]

The pub run finds one of the few ways to evolve this pattern to cold 

Throw a ridge north or northeast and cut off the scandi segment beneath it 

another possibility 

Still not convinced about much btw …..

[northwestsnow]

[Bradley in Kent]

This temperature contrast will certainly give the models something to work with in the next couple of days. (chart is current 850s by the way)

Edited January 4, 2022 by Bradley in Kent

[Staffmoorlands]

Met Office expert Marco Petagna has suggested that there are no current signs of a prolonged cold spell in his latest tweets

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met Office expert Marco Petagna has suggested that there are no current signs of a prolonged cold spell in his latest tweets

 

And it could soon change for us coldies for something more wintery and more prolonged.

[ICE COLD]

Nice later stages of the pub run tonight . Bit more interest starting to show although in FI . 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Back in the real world, the averaged CFS couldn't be more bullish for a +NAO to continue throughout the rest of winter (as it has been for months now)

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Met Office expert Marco Petagna has suggested that there are no current signs of a prolonged cold spell in his latest tweets

 

They also predicted a dry, cold and high pressure dominated Christmas period . We know how that panned out . The weather makes fools of all us . Just saying . 

[BelgianBlizzard]

The trough dropping into Europe is encouraging, if only that high could be a bit further west

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Back in the real world, the averaged CFS couldn't be more bullish for a +NAO to continue throughout the rest of winter (as it has been for months now)

Isn't this the monthly forecast every month!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Back in the real world, the averaged CFS couldn't be more bullish for a +NAO to continue throughout the rest of winter (as it has been for months now)

You need not worry ,the Crewe snow shield will be breached Thurs night ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Isn't this the monthly forecast every month!

Not at all. In fact I cannot remember another time when the anomaly was so marked. It must have near complete agreement!

[damianslaw]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Not at all. In fact I cannot remember another time when the anomaly was so marked. It must have near complete agreement!

I don't look at the CFS much but on occasion I've rarely ever seen it not show a positive NAO. I could be wrong.

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I don't look at the CFS much but on occasion I've rarely ever seen it not show a positive NAO. I could be wrong.

No, it has done well picking out -ve NAO periods previously (the NOAA charts not the daily runs). All the longer range modelling is singing from the same hymn sheets anyway.

If we see a proper cold and snowy spell this winter I'll be the most shocked I've been in 12 years of being on Netweather. I simply cannot see by what mechanism we get HP far enough N to allow cold advection across the UK. We *may* eke out some cold zonality in Feb but unfortunately that's the limit of what I can see happening cold wise.

I'd put a proper Greenland HP spell at <10%

Scandi heights of some kind 15-20% 

(over the next 8 weeks)

Edited January 4, 2022 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, it has done well picking out -ve NAO periods previously (the NOAA charts not the daily runs). All the longer range modelling is singing from the same hymn sheets anyway.

If we see a proper cold and snowy spell this winter I'll be the most shocked I've been in 12 years of being on Netweather. I simply cannot see by what mechanism we get HP far enough N to allow cold advection across the UK. We *may* eke out some cold zonality in Feb but unfortunately that's the limit of what I can see happening cold wise.

I'd put a proper Greenland HP spell at <10%

Scandi heights of some kind 15-20% 

(over the next 8 weeks)

Winter 13-14 and 19-20 I'd say were far worse for cold prospects. We saw an hour of snow in winter 13-14 that was it!