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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022


Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model-based discussion.  Some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less chat and a more straight-up model discussion take a look at the alternate model discussion

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

My general impression from the.00z runs is mid-lat  blocking high pressure is likely to be in control of our weather from Wednesday right through to Thursday next week at least, 

EC continues to intrigue days 9-10 with a splitting over the polar regions of the TPV into 2 main vortices, one over W Russia, the other over Canada, thanks to height rises over the pole (-AO).

ECMOPNH00_216_1.thumb.png.26a482b116732ece69dd5e610d5a0ec9.pngECMOPNH00_240_1-1.thumb.png.a20ae018a15882fe7c337694026c8bbb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
14 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

It's early days on these charts but at the moment that wedge looks primed to head northwards... 

Until we get some sort of block in the Atlantic anything meaningful in terms of cold wintry weather does look a long shot. The low exiting Canada around 144 scuppers things just as they look like they are going to get interesting..too far south east on ECM, just flattens the high....just checked Strat charts and wow! Is it usual for things to be so quiet this time of year? Usually see some sort of warming even if it doesnt lead to a SSW

gfsnh-10-102.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, Singularity said:

Considering the trend to re-amplify the Pacific standing wave during week 3 of Jan, I have a feeling we’re going to be teased with northerly chances for quite a while. Maybe even most of the rest of January.

Who knows, one mid-Atlantic ridge build might find a space to get its foot in the Arctic door and produce more than a brief glancing blast of cold air for the UK - but which one and how soon that is is anyone’s guess. For now, best just to sit back and keep one eye on the ensemble clusters rather than pay much attention to individual runs.

Good post and imo on the money. My guess is the one or two towards/at end of the month, though glancing blows up to then.  I think we should see frosty mornings with this incoming HP particularly for southern parts.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

00z runs are very dry,and really chilly ,especially for the south , lots of frosty mornings on offer and perhaps some freezing fog.

Its as good as its going to get for coldies with a PV on steroids, it could be a lot worse ,and not much better given the set up to our NW..

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Slow burner this year getting a cold spell, but think last week of January onwards could be our chance  of getting some proper cold in looking at the NH profile. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

00z runs are very dry,and really chilly ,especially for the south , lots of frosty mornings on offer and perhaps some freezing fog.

Its as good as its going to get for coldies with a PV on steroids, it could be a lot worse ,and not much better given the set up to our NW..

 

Could be like that ‘generally’ for 2 weeks…..as a fair weather golfer I might get some winter golf in!  I am finding this intriguing and well within parameters of anticipated way forward.

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And so it continues for the horeseeable  across this mornings ops, the rolling high alternating between Europe the UK and at Low amplitude in the near Atlantic.

A quiet mid winter period coming up.which is no bad thing really. 

Better than storms ripping peoples roofs off or floods ruining homes and business's.

 

 

Yes - there is enough momentum in the tank to keep the azores ridge far enough north that any nasty storms are kept at bay. Better than I feared might happen - the GWO orbit is indeed forecast to fall, but it will take a week or more. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Extended mean eps very little cheers folks.  Northern arm still strong with high pressure belt from Azores into Europe evident.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Extended mean eps very little cheers folks.  Northern arm still strong with high pressure belt from Azores into Europe evident.

Not really a surprise...

As said , things could be a whole lot worse for our island , as horrible as Euro highs are,given the vortex ,it could be very stormy for us  if that HP was further south.

I'm scratching around for other positives but the cupboard looks a bit bare.

Perhaps a relaxation of Nina will help ,still a long way to go for winter.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

I suspect when the sun breaks through each day it will feel pleasant, and even warm, in the sunshine under this high. If fog persists then it won't but a cold high pressure cell this ain't.

 

Edited by Mark Smithy
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