Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Thunder and Lightning]

Yesterday evening a couple of models suggested some sort of windstorm for Friday. Come to this morning  most models hopping on the trend. Don't think that the trend will stick given it is 5 days away but bears watching. 

Powered by a very strong jet stream. It is a relatively straight jet streak so we can assume left exit/right entrance as best places for storm development. 

Looks like that most models develop it into the right entrance, allowing to rapidly intensify. Will that really happen? Probably not, but again needs watching

GFS: 

ECMWF:

UKMET:

ICON:

Some good weather watching is always exciting anyway so I will enjoy these few days even if no storm occurs. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Nick L

[Ross90]

Weds looks more likely, yellow warnings out already and likely to be amber in some places if it doesn't get downgraded. 

[StingJet]

For sure mate,  a definite wiff of explosive cyclogenesis in the air as we run through Thursday into Friday. (1005mb down to 965mb Thursday noon to Friday noon - 40mb drop in 24hrs .. that is some drop in mslp)

Which will be the agency to drop a name on this Storm ?

GFS has the track slightly further north (Rockall > Forties) than the UKMet and ECM (Shannon > Dogger)

GFS model data 06z  as presented in XCWeather, as a point of reference an 8mb pressure difference between north wales and south wales would deliver a solid F8 with gusts to F9+ from the west , Further north F10 + likely with gusts to 80mph+ 
UKMet and ECM have the storm track further south , but with the same level of intensity.

Keeping an eye on the Met Maritime extended outlook , as Thursday into Friday should drop into the forecast horizon on this evening's update

Extended outlook - Met Office

The wraparound from the nw / n will introduce quite a drop in 850's , with precipitation likely turning increasingly wintery for higher ground for Scotland, NI, Northern England, with the chance to lower levels in the beefier showers   

Edited February 13, 2022 by StingJet

[StingJet]

20 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Weds looks more likely, yellow warnings out already and likely to be amber in some places if it doesn't get downgraded. 

It does at present mate , no warnings issued just yet for Friday, a little harder to predict at this range especially when we are dealing with rapid intensification, the primary drivers being the vigorous low Wednesday and associated nuking jet stream

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

It’s looking lively next week that’s for sure!! This thread sums it up nicely. Will have to watch the weather like a hawk this week for any change because, as we know, any subtle changes will have a massive difference on who sees what and how severe it is.

Friday’s low is especially interesting, will it correct Nwards depending on how deep it is?

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

58 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

It’s looking lively next week that’s for sure!! This thread sums it up nicely. Will have to watch the weather like a hawk this week for any change because, as we know, any subtle changes will have a massive difference on who sees what and how severe it is.

Friday’s low is especially interesting, will it correct Nwards depending on how deep it is?

 

Yeah I expect so, but it is interesting that some weaker solutions such as GEM are further North, though ECM and GFS both relatively similar to UKMET but a lot further North.  Placement will be crucial to if storm gets into right entrance region of jet

[The PIT]

Yup a week of interest nine times out of ten storms downgrade quite a bit nearer the time so may lose 10 to 15mph from the top speeds but still windy.

[Tim M]

3 hours ago, The PIT said:

nine times out of ten storms downgrade quite a bit nearer the time so may lose 10 to 15mph from the top speeds but still windy.

Hope so! Just down the road from you The Pit and XC tonight says 39mph average wind speed for a time on Friday for me - not seen that before for a long, long, long time. Gusts up to 70mph are also more than we have had for many a year.

Met Office website has toned the speeds a little from earlier and, of course, I know in weather terms Thursday and Friday are still a long way off.

But I have to admit I am already concerned about the back end of this week.

 

[Paul_1978]

Slight concern over the storm later in the week as I am travelling from West Yorkshire to Scotland in the early hours of Saturday morning - up the A1 and then either across the A66 or straight up the A1 at Scotch Corner. Maybe the worst of the weather will have passed by then. It's not the wind I'm worried about so much but the snow. Will have to really keep my eye on the forecast over the next couple of days.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Paul_1978

[StingJet]

The MetO have now issued a severe weather warning (Yellow - Wind) for Friday, about time ! & we have a named Storm - Eunice 

Wednesday and Thursdays yellow warnings have now been upgraded to Amber for parts of southern Scotland and Northern England

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[TwisterGirl81]

Friday's storm looks even stronger on the GFS this morning, bring it on :)

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, StingJet said:

The MetO have now issued a severe weather warning (Yellow - Wind) for Friday, about time ! & we have a named Storm - Eunice 

And Storm Dudley on Wednesday of course. 

[StingJet]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

And Storm Dudley on Wednesday of course. 

Well spotted mate & for completeness:

Wednesday

Thursday (ditto)

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[Timbo]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Gfs 6z still predicting upto 90 mph on Friday in the south east

Got that horrible feeling that here in East Anglia, we will experience similar wind gusts and storm damage as seen in the great 87 storm, Friday now shaping up to possible be a major / severely damaging event, also if enough cold air gets pulled into the circulation there is potential for severe blizzards!!!!!!!   

[Froze were the Days]

10 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Got that horrible feeling that here in East Anglia, we will experience similar wind gusts and storm damage as seen in the great 87 storm, Friday now shaping up to possible be a major / severely damaging event, also if enough cold air gets pulled into the circulation there is potential for severe blizzards!!!!!!!   

Not going to happen...Oct 87 was a once in a century occurrence (though could happen for this century). I woke up at 6am on the 16th and apart from nearly being decapitated by a flying slate from next doors barn  the wind took my breath away never mind me being able to hardly stand up it was that intense. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.

[Timbo]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not going to happen...Oct 87 was a once in a century occurrence (though could happen for this century). I woke up at 6am on the 16th and apart from nearly being decapitated by a flying slate from next doors barn  the wind took my breath away never mind me being able to hardly stand up it was that intense. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.

I think you may be wrong on this system, if any thing it looks like it will be moving on a more Southerly track.

[StingJet]

32 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Friday's storm looks even stronger on the GFS this morning, bring it on

For sure .. Eunice could be quite an intense feature for NI, Wales and England , most of Scotland has some rest bite. The MetO supporting details provides an interesting read on likely outcomes and potential wind speeds 

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[Paul]

There's a thread for storm Dudley, so probably best to keep the two separate

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96771-storm-dudley/?do=getNewComment

 

[richie3846]

I suggest the yellow warning is just a broad sweep for now. Except ambers as we get closer. Always a worry for me as I have family in Swansea, which gets an absolute beating in these types of setups. 

[Tim M]

9 minutes ago, Timbo said:

I think you may be wrong on this system, if any thing it looks like it will be moving on a more Southerly track.

Southerly enough to take it away from UK? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part? 

[StingJet]

5 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I suggest the yellow warning is just a broad sweep for now. Except ambers as we get closer. Always a worry for me as I have family in Swansea, which gets an absolute beating in these types of setups. 

Always a worry mate , similar to Swansea here on the northern tip of Anglesey ,   battening down the hatches quite the norm. It must be at least 10 years ago Christmas through to mid Jan we had 19 consecutive days of severe gales , with 3 days recording over 100mph gusts on my Davis Vantage Pro,  the Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS) got an absolute battering and ultimate destruction 

[richie3846]

2 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Always a worry mate , similar to Swansea here on the northern tip of Anglesey ,   battening down the hatches quite the norm. It must be at least 10 years ago Christmas through to mid Jan we had 19 consecutive days of severe gales , with 3 days recording over 100mph gusts on my Davis Vantage Pro,  the Integrated Sensor Suite (ISS) got an absolute battering and ultimate destruction 

Those inland types have no clue what it's like in these storms in exposed locations! I hope this one isn't as bad as some of the models suggest. 100mph is the point where I start to worry. I've already given strict orders to my slightly insane parents that they aren't to go down to beach to take a look!! Especially worrying given that down south we haven't had a really windy storm for a few years, so there's always more risk of stuff coming loose or toppling over. Fingers crossed for you too, hope everything is still in one piece come Saturday morning!

[Ruzzi]

46 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not going to happen... 

Okay Mr Fish, that's plenty

In all seriousness, I don't think that's quite how it works. Even if it was on average a once in a century event, there's nothing to say it couldn't happen 3 times in Month say. 

Has to be taken on its own merit, certainly looks interesting. Potential for an unreal wind event. 

Don't get me wrong, storm Arwin was incredible for parts in Scotland, thousands of trees flattened and a red warning which was of merit too. 

The track may well move, but a track over the North of England looks slightly more favoured I think. Somewhere could really hit a sweet blizzard from it!

Prior to that, I'm in the Amber warning area for Wednesday night so let's see how that pans out first, MetO suggesting inland gusts of possibly 70-80mph 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Ruzzi

[StingJet]

48 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Those inland types have no clue what it's like in these storms in exposed locations! I hope this one isn't as bad as some of the models suggest. 100mph is the point where I start to worry. I've already given strict orders to my slightly insane parents that they aren't to go down to beach to take a look!! Especially worrying given that down south we haven't had a really windy storm for a few years, so there's always more risk of stuff coming loose or toppling over. Fingers crossed for you too, hope everything is still in one piece come Saturday morning!

Even I have a raised eyebrow of concern now ,  still at this range , plenty of scope for change .. GFS 18z pub run last night completely downgraded the Storm , only to ramp it up again on the 00z and 06z runs this morning. ECM and UKMet have  been pretty consistent over the last couple of days with regards to the evolution of track and intensity. Additionally the cold air mixing in now is an upgrade so to speak with the potential for blizzards across a good swathe of the UK,  at least it will be in and out rather sharpish.

I'll  not speak of the Sting Jet just yet ...   last one I experienced was Storm Kyrill 17th / 18th Jan 2007, a significant number of us UK and Euro SpeedSurfers were waiting patiently at West Kirby, Wirral for the 80+ kt Westerly to moderate to a sailable 40-50Kts 

for those who are not familiar with said phenomena
 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[johnwirral]

30 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Even I have a raised eyebrow of concern now ,  still at this range , plenty of scope for change .. GFS 18z pub run last night completely downgraded the Storm , only to ramp it up again on the 00z and 06z runs this morning. ECM and UKMet have  been pretty consistent over the last couple of days with regards to the evolution of track and intensity. Additionally the cold air mixing in now is an upgrade so to speak with the potential for blizzards across a good swathe of the UK,  at least it will be in and out rather sharpish.

I'll  not speak of the Sting Jet just yet ...   last one I experienced was Storm Kyrill 17th / 18th Jan 2007, a significant number of us UK and Euro SpeedSurfers were waiting patiently at West Kirby, Wirral for the 80+ kt Westerly to moderate to a sailable 40-50Kts 

for those who are not familiar with said phenomena
 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet

 

100 mph gusts off the the N.Wales and N.W English coasts forecast this morning, also large 9m tides for Hilbre Island. Looks like it will be a nice broad reach down the wall at WK, if there’s anything remaining of it when the tide turns…

 

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by johnwirral