Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Froze were the Days]

58 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

In all seriousness, I don't think that's quite how it works. Even if it was on average a once in a century event, there's nothing to say it couldn't happen 3 times in Month say. 

3 times in a month not on the scale of 87!...here in the south east October 87 was the strongest winds recorded last century so not going to be on that scale more chance in the Hebrides/Orkney Isles or further north where storms are far more prevalent. I can remember February 90 which had a very strong jet and there were a few storms with winds in the 60-80mph category and not forgetting the Burns Day storm in January.

Anyway somebody just contacted me and heard a hurricane was on the way...:)

[StingJet]

23 minutes ago, johnwirral said:

100 mph gusts off the the N.Wales and N.W English coasts forecast this morning, also large 9m tides for Hilbre Island. Looks like it will be a nice broad reach down the wall at WK, if there’s anything remaining of it when the tide turns…

 

 

Hey John in Wirral ... thanks for sharing mate ....  your 1m ASL is worrying me , good job its not a 10m 

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[Eskimo]

Now that I'm a homeowner, I'm hoping and praying that the strongest winds occur through the channel. 

[lottiekent]

The thing with these storms is that that a lot of us in coastal locations often see severe gale gusts when they go through so it’s not all that unusual. It’s if inland areas that see those kind of gusts that problems tend to occur.

Edit: it’s full moon this week so some high tides which won’t help with coastal flooding if it is that bad.

Edited February 14, 2022 by lottiekent

[johnwirral]

51 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Hey John in Wirral ... thanks for sharing mate ....  your 1m ASL is worrying me , good job its not a 10m 

The Marine lake is down the end of the road, has to be a North Westerly to get WK and we have never flooded.  The houses on the prom get hit and if it stays like this I would avoid the car park if you are down for a blast.

[leedsnowfan]

I think we will see Amber Alerts issued from NW right round coasts to Kent for Friday on Tuesday Morning. Always the way

[Nick L]

Looking a very exciting weather event for sure. Could be the strongest winds in central England for several years.

[A Face like Thunder]

4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not going to happen...Oct 87 was a once in a century occurrence (though could happen for this century). I woke up at 6am on the 16th and apart from nearly being decapitated by a flying slate from next doors barn  the wind took my breath away never mind me being able to hardly stand up it was that intense. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.

I experienced 16th October 1987 in S London / Surrey and agree it was a once in a century wind event. The nearest comparison here in Cheshire this century was 18th January 2007 and I am wondering whether Dudley or Eunice may come close to that scary afternoon event.

[MAF]

Not sure where the 'once in a century' phrase is coming from. Surely, at the best, 'once in a lifetime' would describe things better. but even the accuracy of that phrase can be blown away (see what i did there?) given the total unpredictability of mother nature. 

'87 was pretty grim here in SE London and i will never forget the fight against the wind walk to work that morning. reaching the brow of a hill i could hear a scraping noise which turned out to be a bus shelter blowing uphill on the other side of the brow. 

my thoughts are that even if its nothing like '87 there is still potential for damage given the dryness of the trees around here. add to that the lack of rain lately the ground is dry which may mean more trees will fall. 

these things are all relative to the conditions of the day i suppose. so trying to second guess how severe or not it may be is, imo, pointless.

[suffolkboy_]

3 hours ago, StingJet said:

Even I have a raised eyebrow of concern now ,  still at this range , plenty of scope for change .. GFS 18z pub run last night completely downgraded the Storm , only to ramp it up again on the 00z and 06z runs this morning. ECM and UKMet have  been pretty consistent over the last couple of days with regards to the evolution of track and intensity. Additionally the cold air mixing in now is an upgrade so to speak with the potential for blizzards across a good swathe of the UK,  at least it will be in and out rather sharpish.

I'll  not speak of the Sting Jet just yet ...   last one I experienced was Storm Kyrill 17th / 18th Jan 2007, a significant number of us UK and Euro SpeedSurfers were waiting patiently at West Kirby, Wirral for the 80+ kt Westerly to moderate to a sailable 40-50Kts 

for those who are not familiar with said phenomena
 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet

 

 

The sting jet I experienced was on 28th October 2013 which was pretty localised in Suffolk. I recorded a just of 92mph which is insane for inland Suffolk. It only lasted a few moments but there were trees being cleared for days afterwards. A branch from a willow flew some 50 yards and landed just short of my grandmothers house. It was big enough that two of of couldn't move it and had to cut it in-situ.

I wasn't alive for the storm of 87 but it seems that those sorts of wind gusts were present for a few hours, I'd be very surprised if I see a storm like that in my lifetime.

[Wivenswold]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

3 times in a month not on the scale of 87!...here in the south east October 87 was the strongest winds recorded last century so not going to be on that scale more chance in the Hebrides/Orkney Isles or further north where storms are far more prevalent. I can remember February 90 which had a very strong jet and there were a few storms with winds in the 60-80mph category and not forgetting the Burns Day storm in January.

Anyway somebody just contacted me and heard a hurricane was on the way...:)

I don't think that's what the poster was trying to explain and it's incredibly misleading to compare that unique event with this unique event, by comparing every windstorm with Oct 87 you ignore that while it got all the headlines there were a number of factors that caused the mayhem it did. Northumbria was supposed to have had a "once in 100 years" storm at the end of last year.  Can the good people of Northumbria go about their business on Wednesday and Friday safe in the knowledge that it won't be as bad as their December storm for another 100 years?

This being a very complex science, and one that is evolving due to global warming, means that it's all a bit more complicated than comparing storms like it's some game of Top Trumps. 
  

[Ross90]

Jan 3rd 2012 was the strongest winds i've experienced (90 mph for about 40 minutes). If it is that bad even for a short time there will be damage especially to roof tiles and metal sheet roofs. Plenty of damaged trees and fences down too.

[weirpig]

Wowsers 

[ChannelThunder]

I'm always apprehensive about these deep lows in the South +4 days out; 9 times out of 10 they get corrected northwards and we miss out on all the fun. Still, I seem to live in one of the windiest parts of the Isle of Wight, so Friday is bound to be a gusty one whatever.

[dryfie]

Here we go again with the '87 piffle!  Noteworthy yes, but would not even have got on the news if it hadn't occurred in the blessed south.  Compare to events like the Burns Day Storm (1990, 47 deaths), the Glasgow Storm of 1968 (28 deaths) or more recently Storm Alwyn.  Incidentally, credit due to Fish for prducing a precise and 100% accurate forecast; no hurricane forecast and none occurred.  Only my opinion and a little research suggests that 1987 would not even be included in the top 20 storms of our lifetimes.

 

[StingJet]

A little bit of "light" reading  on the Sting Jet for those interested 

Link provides a Webcast and Powerpoint presentation

http://www.eumetrain.org/resources/sting_jets_2012.html

[weirpig]

16 minutes ago, weirpig said:

 

GFS keeping the theme  I find since it's update it sometimes is a little pessimistic regarding max speeds. Anyway take that 

[Thunder and Lightning]

GFS and ICON are the first 12z models of today: 
ICON continues on its much further South path compared to other models, bringing severe gales to the Channel Coast and SW England
GFS is a tad further north but brings 80mph wind gusts into the Midlands, Wales and Southern England. 

[weirpig]

As things stand GFS and ARP are similarish path  with the later hitting close to 100 mph inland GFS closer to 80  very windy for inland areas especially as it happens midday Friday 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, weirpig said:

As things stand GFS and ARP are similarish path  with the later hitting close to 100 mph inland GFS closer to 80  very windy for inland areas especially as it happens midday Friday 

What is this ARP model? Do you have a link - 100mph sounds quite crazy

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

As things stand GFS and ARP are similarish path  with the later hitting close to 100 mph inland GFS closer to 80  very windy for inland areas especially as it happens midday Friday 

Arperge does tend to overdo windspeeds  however can't be discounted. See my post above 25 min ago 

1 minute ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

What is this ARP model? Do you have a link - 100mph sounds quite crazy

Sorry prob with phone. See above

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Arperge does tend to overdo windspeeds  however can't be discounted. See my post above 25 min ago 

Sorry prob with phone. See above

 

Right thanks 

[pinball wizard]

Still dont think these wild runs will verify, windy yes, but I'd wager max inland gusts of 60mph max. These events always get watered down nearer to the event, much like the majority of day 5 snowmaggedon charts.

[Mark Smithy]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.

There's no real science behind the idea that a rapid cyclogenesis (weather bomb) storm will be downgraded. Snow events are different matters for all sorts of reasons given our location. But a rapidly deepening low with the jet this strong (200 + mph), the all-important buckle to that jet and some staggering mild air in the mix (17C midweek in London) makes this a potentially very nasty storm indeed.

It all depends on the track really.

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

Still dont think these wild runs will verify, windy yes, but I'd wager max inland gusts of 60mph max. These events always get watered down nearer to the event, much like the majority of day 5 snowmaggedon charts.

This is simply untrue.

And as I've just pointed out, to confuse a storm with a snow event is not good meteorology.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[LightningLover]

Latest ICON- 85-90mph gusts for bexhill, my word...