Storm Eunice - 18th February

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Going off the GFS..

I'm not an expert in this but that is almost perfect alignment for some sort of sting jet to potentially form... its still deepening on approach albeit not now bombing however...

Jet stream 

[Man With Beard]

Very rare indeed for the GFS to get the black ink out on its gust charts. 

Once within T72, the GFS becomes one of the most accurate wind speed predictors, even sometimes slightly below the mark. So if it brings out the black again by this time tomorrow, Wales and England should take note.

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Going off the GFS..

I'm not an expert in this but that is almost perfect alignment for some sort of sting jet to potentially form... its still deepening on approach albeit not now bombing however...

Jet stream 

Is there anything that can particularly indicate conditions more conducive for sting jet development or no? Obviously would need to be rapidly deepening, but there would be any way of indicating an elevated risk apart from a high-res modelling a few hours before or just live observations. 

[Nick L]

ICON has 100mph gusts through the Channel and a genuine blizzard through the Midlands.

Not that it'll happen, but fun to look at.

[Froze were the Days]

35 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

I don't think that's what the poster was trying to explain and it's incredibly misleading to compare that unique event with this unique event, by comparing every windstorm with Oct 87 you ignore that while it got all the headlines there were a number of factors that caused the mayhem it did. Northumbria was supposed to have had a "once in 100 years" storm at the end of last year.  Can the good people of Northumbria go about their business on Wednesday and Friday safe in the knowledge that it won't be as bad as their December storm for another 100 years?

This being a very complex science, and one that is evolving due to global warming, means that it's all a bit more complicated than comparing storms like it's some game of Top Trumps. 
  

Not misleading anybody...I'm stating that the October 87 storm in the south east is almost on a different parallel to storms that have been (in my lifetime and what I've read from the 1900's) and possibly experience in the future certainly for the south east (Essex), My initial post on the 1st page replied to one saying 'Anglia could witness gusts and damage to that of 87' from Eunice.

The post from Rozzi was more pointed towards my statement of a 'once in a century event' and that due to the complexity and randomness of the weather this could happen more often than once in a 100 years which in turn is certainly possible but not in my location and as stated certainly not on the strength of 1987 3 times in a month - with the rise in SST's and GW we 'could' get more frequent destructive storms but have to admit I haven't seen an increase of notable storms over the last 20 years as opposed to the previous 20.  My post was related to location as we know as mentioned up north a far greater chance, and not comparing storms to top trumps.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Is there anything that can particularly indicate conditions more conducive for sting jet development or no? Obviously would need to be rapidly deepening, but there would be any way of indicating an elevated risk apart from a high-res modelling a few hours before or just live observations. 

Live observations I belive... you need perfect conditions for one to take place. Although could make an educated guess based on pervious events.

[pinball wizard]

19 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

There's no real science behind the idea that a rapid cyclogenesis (weather bomb) storm will be downgraded. Snow events are different matters for all sorts of reasons given our location. But a rapidly deepening low with the jet this strong (200 + mph), the all-important buckle to that jet and some staggering mild air in the mix (17C midweek in London) makes this a potentially very nasty storm indeed.

It all depends on the track really.

This is simply untrue.

And as I've just pointed out, to confuse a storm with a snow event is not good meteorology.

Im not confused. Lets see who is right come friday and leave it at that.

[knocker]

11 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Is there anything that can particularly indicate conditions more conducive for sting jet development or no? Obviously would need to be rapidly deepening, but there would be any way of indicating an elevated risk apart from a high-res modelling a few hours before or just live observations. 

Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3889

[Man With Beard]

UKMO just coming out ... over 200km/h just south of Ireland?

These charts are new to Meteociel, and UKMO slightly overdid the December storm for the NE on other weather charts, so jury's out on how reliably this can be taken, but a bit of an eyeopener all the same

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I experienced 16th October 1987 in S London / Surrey and agree it was a once in a century wind event. The nearest comparison here in Cheshire this century was 18th January 2007 and I am wondering whether Dudley or Eunice may come close to that scary afternoon event.

3 years later was the Burns Day storm which gave the '87 event a run for it's money over a much wider area

[Cheshire Freeze]

[StingJet]

28 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Going off the GFS..

I'm not an expert in this but that is almost perfect alignment for some sort of sting jet to potentially form... its still deepening on approach albeit not now bombing however...

Jet stream 

Still bombing mate - 30mb drop from 1300hrs Thursday (1000mb) to 1300hrs Friday (970mb) (UKMet Charts refer)

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[Thunder and Lightning]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO just coming out ... over 200km/h just south of Ireland?

These charts are new to Meteociel, and UKMO slightly overdid the December storm for the NE on other weather charts, so jury's out on how reliably this can be taken, but a bit of an eyeopener all the same

UKMO does bring 115+mph gusts South of Ireland.

Transfers into Wales/SW England bringing 90mph gusts. 

Then through the Midlands with 80-85mph gusts


Yes models usually tend to 'water-down' wind speeds closer to the event, with downgrades etc. But the consistency from this model and many others since Saturday is very alarming. Needs very close watching for those in Western Coastal areas. 

[StingJet]

The pressure differential between the Azores high @ 1040mb and Eunice @ 970mb, Isobars as tight as a camel's ar*e in a sandstorm (GFS 12z refers)

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by StingJet

[Zenarcher]

A comparison amongst some of the 12z runs from this afternoon at 1am on Friday.

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Models seem to have good agreement on position of low  apart from icon. Some crazy gusts on many models  80 90 mph inland is very dangerous   something to watch 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, weirpig said:

Models seem to have good agreement on position of low  apart from icon. Some crazy gusts on many models  80 90 mph inland is very dangerous   something to watch 

Extremely dangerous inland wind speeds. Hard to see it not downgrading because 80-90mph inland winds are not something that happen very often at all. Probably on a par with Feb 2014 that ripped the roof off Crewe train station.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Wowsers 

Makes a change for this to be during the day - the last few named storms seem to have had their main effects in night time hours

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Extremely dangerous inland wind speeds. Hard to see it not downgrading because 80-90mph inland winds are not something that happen very often at all. Probably on a par with Feb 2014 that ripped the roof off Crewe train station.

I remember that mate. Also Doris was potent around here with a young girl dying   think speeds reached 80 that day 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

I remember that mate. Also Doris was potent around here with a young girl dying   think speeds reached 80 that day 

Yeah Doris was a pokey little storm, plenty of fences down.

2014 storm I remember calling my mum who was down at the stables, telling her to get inside. Was a like a constant jet engine roar outside.

[johnwirral]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Scary, big 9m high tide is at 12pm on the Wirral, could be spectacular at New Brighton

[claret047]

1 hour ago, dryfie said:

Here we go again with the '87 piffle!  Noteworthy yes, but would not even have got on the news if it hadn't occurred in the blessed south.  Compare to events like the Burns Day Storm (1990, 47 deaths), the Glasgow Storm of 1968 (28 deaths) or more recently Storm Alwyn.  Incidentally, credit due to Fish for prducing a precise and 100% accurate forecast; no hurricane forecast and none occurred.  Only my opinion and a little research suggests that 1987 would not even be included in the top 20 storms of our lifetimes.

 

Yes they were all tragedies and I am not attempting to play them down in any way, but could it be with the 1987 it happened at night and the death toll would have been so much higher if it had been higher if it had peaked during daylight hours.

We suffered an enormous amount of damage in Essex. At the time I worked for Essex County Council in the Property Services Department and I had to produce a report to committee the cost of repairs to schools, elderly persons homes and other county council owned establishments. The total cost if memory serves me right was over £100m. With winds of that ferocity being a rarity buildings had not been designed to face such a force and 3 schools lost their roofs. Would have as much damage been sustained in areas more accustomed to such extremes and the buildings designed to withstand such wind strength?

 

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

ICON has 100mph gusts through the Channel and a genuine blizzard through the Midlands.

Not that it'll happen, but fun to look at.

Just like the good old days......

[Wivenswold]

I'm from the South East and was in my last year at school in 1987. And even I'm utterly bored of the pointless 1987 equivalency. Besides, The Burns Day Storm in 1990 was a far bigger tragedy affecting a far bigger portion of the UK, including the South East.  

I blame the "top ten", "instant jeopardy" culture of late, something's always got to be the winner.

Science ain't like that. Both of this week's storms will bring a fresh bunch of risks and I'm sure a few meteorological surprises, but it really isn't shouldn't be a game of "Best Storm Ever". 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Wivenswold

[Rich_T]

34 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Makes a change for this to be during the day - the last few named storms seem to have had their main effects in night time hours

Certainly something to watch out for if stormy weather is due during daylight hours with more people out and about , even more so if it hits early morning/early evening when people are travelling to and from work/school etc