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Storm Eunice - 18th February


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

The Met Office model has taken the low further north on the 12z, as it deepens it earlier and accelerates it a tad. 

00z
meto2.png

12z
meto1.png

For those who maybe haven't seen them. We have new 3 hourly met office and ECMWF charts available now:
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/met-office
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf

Plus the UKV Hi-res here:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
14 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

I'm from the South East and was in my last year at school in 1987. And even I'm utterly bored of the pointless 1987 equivalency. Besides, The Burns Day Storm in 1990 was a far bigger tragedy affecting a far bigger portion of the UK, including the South East.  

I blame the "top ten", "instant jeopardy" culture of late, something's always got to be the winner.

Science ain't like that. Both of this week's storms will bring a fresh bunch of risks and I'm sure a few meteorological surprises, but it really isn't shouldn't be a game of "Best Storm Ever". 

Seriously whose saying that?...nobody has stated Oct 87 was bigger than Burns 90' or likewise, the point I've made is that 15/16th October 87 was a standout storm for those in the south east which will be unparalleled before and probably some distance into the future to those who lived in that area from E/Sussex up to near Norfolk and yes effected a smaller area to other storms but thank god it happened largely in the wee hours otherwise the fatalities we have been far higher.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
1 hour ago, pinball wizard said:

Im not confused. Lets see who is right come friday and leave it at that.

That's a bit silly. It's not about who is right or wrong on Friday which is a bit playground. Even if it's a nasty storm I won't come on here being silly about whether I was right.

This is about whether your general point holds up. You said that these storms are always downgraded which is simply untrue. Sometimes with extreme cyclogenesis the opposite is the case because as Paul (NW) has pointed out, they're damned hard to forecast. By their very nature they develop extremely rapidly. They can just as easily be more violent than less so.

Snow events do frequently get downgraded for a variety of reasons connected to our location: I'm sure you don't need me to spell those out.

To confuse the two types of weather event is not helpful.

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Each model suite from the 12Z’s appear to bring anything ranging from atrocious to boderline disaster to different part of the country.

For the south ICON would be a disaster, max wind gusts of 181kmh/110mph

 

 

E4318604-2DBE-4615-96CB-3678EC1F9FBE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
12 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

That's a bit silly. It's not about who is right or wrong on Friday which is a bit playground. Even if it's a nasty storm I won't come on here being silly about whether I was right.

This is about whether your general point holds up. You said that these storms are always downgraded which is simply untrue. Sometimes with extreme cyclogenesis the opposite is the case because as Paul (NW) has pointed out, they're damned hard to forecast. By their very nature they develop extremely rapidly. They can just as easily be more violent than less so.

Snow events do frequently get downgraded for a variety of reasons connected to our location: I'm sure you don't need me to spell those out.

To confuse the two types of weather event is not helpful.

For the avoidance of doubt the point I was making is that similar to snowmageddon charts there is a tendency amongst many models to over do low pressure systems resulting in wind gusts at t120 that are significantly lower come the 'event' itself. Its valentines, kiss and make up

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Thinking of my own area a repeat of the Burns day storm would be interesting. Inland Tayside had over a foot of snow drifting in the gale force Easterly winds. Main roads like the M90 and A9 were blocked by drifting snow though as the winds to the North of the low were lighter there was very little damage to any structures. 
edit. Now living in Dundee it may not be quite so nice as being a bit nearer the coast on that day there was heavy snow, sleet and cold rain leaving a very slushy mess apparently.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

The UKV 15z puts some meat on the bones of the UK met office global model shift north and acceleration of the low. Quite a big difference between the 2 longer runs today. But it's to be expected with this sort of development.

 03z
ukv2.png

15z
ukv1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Local forecast only has 51mph as the high. It's like erm don't think so.

At the moment looking like the first real storm for a very long time if it effects us. May even have to move the wheelie bins away from the front. Years since they've got blown around always had to move to the back of the house.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
2 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

GFS and ICON are the first 12z models of today: 
ICON continues on its much further South path compared to other models, bringing severe gales to the Channel Coast and SW Englandimage.thumb.png.31b8b2c7dbd52e9bf69e692a1b73e15c.png
GFS is a tad further north but brings 80mph wind gusts into the Midlands, Wales and Southern England. 
image.thumb.png.043ba69ef29455225db20b4050b64f74.png

Wow, it’s saying 101mph for my area in Devon, if that comes off that would be over 15mph stronger that the gusts we got for the 1990 burns day storm…. Bring it on woo hoo

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Posted
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton

Well, I certainly hope the wind speeds are moderated closer to the event.  Those types of wind speeds are very dangerous and the damage to property and businesses not to mention the potential to cause loss of life is not to be underestimated.  I wouldn’t want to wish that on anyone.  

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
4 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Well, I certainly hope the wind speeds are moderated closer to the event.  Those types of wind speeds are very dangerous and the damage to property and businesses not to mention the potential to cause loss of life is not to be underestimated.  I wouldn’t want to wish that on anyone.  

Any weather can be dangerous though ??‍♀️ And I’m very certain that amber/red warnings will be out for people to take heed.

My cat will definitely not be going outside Friday morning when I leave for work. And I shall be weighting down my bins and patio furniture.

Some interesting weather coming up after such benign weather.

Stay safe everyone 
 

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Another thing to add and something that could make a bad situation worse is that this storm is forecast currently through the middle of day and into the rush hour on an Friday evening. Is it me or do these storms nearly always seem to hit overnight?

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

ECM, UKMO & GFS Friday 12 z

ecm500_096.thumb.png.d3b350e17f1fc023331d43de0c92a6aa.png

1613644805_h500slp(3).thumb.webp.91b50ada9d924e74f56e09ae335124bc.webp

1354087782_h500slp(28).thumb.png.0de5d9c22e309e2e2eb07a0c1b021f0b.png

Pretty consistent although ukmo slightly advanced and deeper...will this consistency last?..

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Posted
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
14 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Any weather can be dangerous though ??‍♀️ And I’m very certain that amber/red warnings will be out for people to take heed.

My cat will definitely not be going outside Friday morning when I leave for work. And I shall be weighting down my bins and patio furniture.

Some interesting weather coming up after such benign weather.

Stay safe everyone 
 

Those wind speeds are awfully excessive though and very frightening, I am sure hoping they moderate.  None of my cats will be going out either and I am hoping I don’t have any foster cats come into care and into the pen, which is outside, until after these storms have passed through. 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Those wind speeds are awfully excessive though and very frightening, I am sure hoping they moderate.  None of my cats will be going out either and I am hoping I don’t have any foster cats come into care and into the pen, which is outside, until after these storms have passed through. 

It could downgrade a little or go on a more northerly track where they are used to strong windstorms as per usual but if it doesn’t all we can do is keep ourselves and loved ones safe, the weather will do as it pleases

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
30 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Any weather can be dangerous though ??‍♀️ And I’m very certain that amber/red warnings will be out for people to take heed.

My cat will definitely not be going outside Friday morning when I leave for work. And I shall be weighting down my bins and patio furniture.

Some interesting weather coming up after such benign weather.

Stay safe everyone 
 

Lols Why can I be dangerous! Yes certainly a volItile situation ,will be interesting to see if there is a shift  north or south, and downgrades in wind strength.  Certainly don't want to see any increased wind force....

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)

Just to quantify the graphic below (GFS 12z - XCWeather)
The two lines (yellow) that I have added represent north wales and south wales.  
Typically an 8mb pressure differential between north wales and south wales would deliver a gale (F8)

With Eunice we have a 20mb pressure differential !  I have not seen such a PD since I started competitive windsurfing in the late 80s and tracking weather systems since.. 

image.thumb.png.a495aa2bafe1843d75650dc486e11a55.png 

Edited by StingJet
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i  see the east  could  get winds  of 90 mph on friday  i hope  that  not  right

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Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Another thing to add and something that could make a bad situation worse is that this storm is forecast currently through the middle of day and into the rush hour on an Friday evening. Is it me or do these storms nearly always seem to hit overnight?

This is the big problem with this one. Met Office needs to get the red warning issued on Thursday due to the expected time of day for the storms so schools & businesses etc can take action, but the track likely won't be pined down to within 50 miles till the 12z runs on Thursday, so they may have to issue a red(s) without being fully confident.

Edited by cowdog
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Posted
  • Location: Bridgend, S Wales
  • Location: Bridgend, S Wales
5 minutes ago, cowdog said:

This is the big problem with this one. Met Office needs to get the red warning issued on Thursday due to the expected time of day for the storms so schools & businesses etc can take action, but the track likely won't be pined down to within 50 miles till the 12z runs on Thursday, so they may have to issue a red(s) without being fully confident.

My recollection is similar occurred in Feb 2012? Really bad stuff in Wales and a stinger went up the coast to N Wales. The only wind event ever where work allowed us to go home early.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Another thing to add and something that could make a bad situation worse is that this storm is forecast currently through the middle of day and into the rush hour on an Friday evening. Is it me or do these storms nearly always seem to hit overnight?

Not always. Burns Day Storm of 1990 hit during the day, there were gusts of 90mph inland across southern England, higher along the coasts. Hopefully we don't see a repeat of that on Friday with Eunice passing during the day.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

Looks like the trend is definitely firming up now with Wales and the Midlands likely being the areas worst affected by strongest winds. Definitely still time for big changes, but the consistency between most models makes me feel like they probably won't be too significant. 

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