Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Tim M]

To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph.

Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

4 minutes ago, Tim M said:

To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph.

Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?

 

To be honest, still quite a few members of MOGREPS have that further South solution. Given the other models agreement I would probably lean towards the Northern one, but 4 days is still a lot for stuff to happen. Could be some sort of middle ground, maybe all models lean to southern solution or the other way... It will be a mystery for a couple more days I would think!

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, Tim M said:

To my very untrained eye GFS/UKMO/ECM all now seem pretty much same in terms of areas to be worst hit. My area (North Nottinghamshire) pretty scary 40mph sustained winds Friday lunchtime with gusts approaching 80mph.

Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?

 

I mentioned earlier that these things always correct northwards, and that's exactly what's happened since. Very little chance the ICON is correct, as it's the only one left taking it on the unlikely southern track.

Really quite annoying as a fan of severe weather, that these systems never cross south of Wales these days

[Nick F]

14 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Is there much of a chance ICON could be correct re the track, so taking the worst of the wind/storm much further south?

 

As the low doesn't form until Thursday morning just north of the Azores, there's still chance that it may track further south, though models tend to have a general idea on the steering flow and likely phasing of the low with the upper trough and jet stream when it undergoes rapid cyclogenesis, but track may still change by 100-200 miles N or S depending on how quickly and how much the low deepens.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Nick F

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just looking at the GEFS spaghetti plot shows there are still tons of possible outcomes. While the trend is firming nothing is decided yet.

[Mapantz]

A sting jet quite possible with Eunice on Friday..

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A sting jet quite possible with Eunice on Friday..

That would be very interesting

[damianslaw]

Lots of speculation on Friday's feature at 72-96hrs timeframe.. won't know for certain until Thursday late afternoon I think..

Some places will see storm winds, some directly under the centre of the low will see no wind and probably heavy snow.

[Nick F]

18z ICON further north in track than 12z, seems we're converging? 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Nick F

[Mark Smithy]

1 hour ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

It could downgrade a little or go on a more northerly track where they are used to strong windstorms as per usual but if it doesn’t all we can do is keep ourselves and loved ones safe, the weather will do as it pleases

Just been looking and many of your Devon schools are not on half term until next week. That's a concern.

[SqueakheartLW]

This one could be a storm to rival October 30th 2000 for me if some of these charts are correct. That one brought widespread 90+ mph winds to inland England and Wales if I do recall

I remember this nasty feature moving through during the morning of October 30th 2000.

Some of the wind speed charts I'm seeing are reminding me of this day so much and how it looks like we could be in for a repeat of this.

[Tim M]

Hope this is the right place to ask this question: Why are the predicted wind gusts on the likes of Met Office and BBC websites something like 20/30mph less than XC Weather (GFS I know) for my area, North Notts (as an example) and a lot less than the charts being posted on here.

In fact, MO and BBC at the moment are predicting higher wind gusts for Wednesday night for me and the predicted speeds for Friday have slightly reduced on those 2 sites, despite from reading on here the main models suggesting the opposite.

I suppose my question is, how are the predicted wind speeds/gusts on websites like MO/BBC arrived at.

Thanks for any pointers. 

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Tim M

[weirpig]

Ermmmm.  

 

[Man With Beard]

40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

18z ICON further north in track than 12z, seems we're converging? 

Icon was totally over the top for windspeeds in recent storms, just a note.

[LightningLover]

Pardon me...?

[Thunder and Lightning]

ICON needs a chill pill 

[mountsbaysnow]

11 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

ICON needs a chill pill 

Bye house it was nice knowing you.

 

[snowrye]

16 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Pardon me...?

Exactly, they want to calm down a considerable amount

[LightningLover]

Just now, snowrye said:

Exactly, they want to calm down a considerable amount

This turgid winter must've corrupted me, as I got a very transient pang of excitement at that chart... Guilty as charged!

[snowrye]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

This turgid winter must've corrupted me, as I got a very transient pang of excitement at that chart... Guilty as charged!

Im all for something a bit more lively, been poor for us snow starved southeasterners, but not that lively. Would certainly make for some huge waves

[weirpig]

Track not certain. However whatever the track windspeeds are concerning  next few hours after being similar speeds further north 

[Puddy Galore]

From which direction will the wind blow - SW, W or NW - or don’t we know yet?  Looks from the W to NW to me?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Snowycat

[TwisterGirl81]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Not always. Burns Day Storm of 1990 hit during the day, there were gusts of 90mph inland across southern England, higher along the coasts. Hopefully we don't see a repeat of that on Friday with Eunice passing during the day.

Yes it did, I was 8 years old and we were all kept in our classes as the strongest wind gusts were during late morning/early afternoon if I remember correctly…walking home was pretty scary, roof asphalt was flying in the air, trees down, was hard walking in it 

Edited February 14, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Track not certain. However whatever the track windspeeds are concerning  next few hours after being similar speeds further north 

Yeah the frame after is just as severe for coastal NW England, down into the E Midlands. 

[Mapantz]

Well.. I was supposed to be replacing the wind speed cartridge on my anemometer on Friday.. as its 10 metres up, I'll give it a miss!