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Storm Eunice - 18th February


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 hour ago, Lance M said:

I mentioned earlier that these things always correct northwards, and that's exactly what's happened since. Very little chance the ICON is correct, as it's the only one left taking it on the unlikely southern track.

Really quite annoying as a fan of severe weather, that these systems never cross south of Wales these days

Not always. St Jude was an example. In Peterborough at the time at two days out, I was forecasted storm force winds. I then ended up with zero wind, right under the eye of the low, but with flooding rains instead, when just to the South in Bedford saw severe gales. Fine margins often occur with these setups. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Control has the low less developed giving more snow across the southern half of the UK. 

image.thumb.png.fd41c71ea30f9b86ea2e5413bac0a7f6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Not had a really really strong storm here in Devon since 2013/14 where we had a series of them…some gusts in those storms were in the mid 70’s in Exeter which is a little shielded by Dartmoor if the wind blows in from the west, tends to feel stronger when the wind blows from the north or south

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
25 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Control has the low less developed giving more snow across the southern half of the UK. 

image.thumb.png.fd41c71ea30f9b86ea2e5413bac0a7f6.png

Looks very like the NASA model which just updated to it's 12z run.

geos-0-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summer days with calm seas to swim in, cold frosty snowy winters
  • Location: Douglas Isle of Man
7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

image.thumb.png.b00ce3b5e5aa05498fdf11e0cf59ed24.png

That’s my little island being blown off course there in the pink sector of the Irish Sea... I love how everyone concentrates on the coasts of Great Britain and tends to forget that this type of weather cuts 85000 people off from the wider world... I truly hope this wind speed is downgraded. We just don’t have the capacity in our infrastructure or utilities to deal with major damage! Barra was bad enough... coastlines were battered ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
6 hours ago, Eskimo said:

Control has the low less developed giving more snow across the southern half of the UK. 

image.thumb.png.fd41c71ea30f9b86ea2e5413bac0a7f6.png

There were quite a few GFS 18z ensembles didn't have a significant low.

I wonder what happens if say the low doesn't blow up after its been named? 

GFS 0z op and UKMO 0z are further south

GFSOPUK00_84_1.pngUKMHDOPUK00_78_1.png

GFSOPUK00_84_19.pngUKMHDOPUK00_84_9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Downgrade overnight but still nasty however the downgrades need to be kept an eye on.

As for question what happens when a storm disappears well last time it happened the met office kept with the storm which wasn't shown on any model. Even issued red warnings and left them up even though the crisp packets weren't moving. The last big fail for the met I can remember.

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I don’t really see any downgrade this morning, maybe just a slight shift south, ECM has 80-90mph gusts across a wide swathe of central England and Wales, GFS not far behind, Arpege the same and extremely severe for Southern Ireland with 110mph gusts. Icon develops the low extremely late and is very far south bringing 95-105mph, even inland to Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and other south coastal counties. 

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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t really see any downgrade this morning, maybe just a slight shift south, ECM has 80-90mph gusts across a wide swathe of central England and Wales, GFS not far behind, Arpege the same and extremely severe for Southern Ireland with 110mph gusts. Icon develops the low extremely late and is very far south bringing 95-105mph, even inland to Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and other south coastal counties. 

Yes, hoping this GFS run is well over doing... Can't see any downgrades on wind strengths at all just different areas with the highest gusts as the models try and sort out the track and depth of the storm! 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t really see any downgrade this morning, maybe just a slight shift south, ECM has 80-90mph gusts across a wide swathe of central England and Wales, GFS not far behind, Arpege the same and extremely severe for Southern Ireland with 110mph gusts. Icon develops the low extremely late and is very far south bringing 95-105mph, even inland to Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and other south coastal counties. 

Yep there's no downgrade at all. Just a very strange and misleading remark. What's important to remember is that this is a nascent formation: it won't even form properly until Thursday far out at the Azores. There's huge room for change: timing, deepening (or not), tracking etc.

Anyway, the track is a little further south this morning.

Which runs against two erroneous statements made on here: that they always downgrade (they don't) and that they always go further north (they don't).

Those wishing for this to be severe need to remember that loss of life can occur and as RabbitEars mentioned infrastructure can be badly disrupted. Not all schools are on half term either.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Those wishing for this to be severe need to remember that loss of life can occur and as RabbitEars mentioned infrastructure can be badly disrupted. Not all schools are on half term either.

Certainly don't need a repeat of '87. Certainly no hurricane in strictest terms but it was as good as. 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

GEM chart shows the vicious nature of this.

 

2109248943_Screenshot2022-02-15at06_54_51.thumb.png.412b1f0fc34463743d9df4676607171b.png1772495443_Screenshot2022-02-15at06_55_01.thumb.png.79df8d056dc7ad2b17ccb9a092dfc16e.png1100913958_Screenshot2022-02-15at06_55_31.thumb.png.d569be282567dc1f1148c52ef361817b.png1665122926_Screenshot2022-02-15at06_55_41.thumb.png.ecb19a36b6ab8b3c13072275a02bc63c.png

There is a chance though that the maximum intensity may occur out to sea with the low starting to fill as it transits the UK. Something to keep an eye on.

 

Edited by Mark Smithy
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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

I think the comments in regard to the fact that the storm hasn't even been formed yet and therefore subject to change in track and severity are, on the whole, accurate. 

What might be worth bearing in mind, however, is UKMet have invested significant effort following 1987 significant amount of research into not only the events of 1987 but also how to improve the forecast of these late developing storms. I would not be surprised if UKMO turns out to be the most accurate of all the models but not only that the interpretation of the models by the Chief Forecaster 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
39 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I don’t really see any downgrade this morning, maybe just a slight shift south, ECM has 80-90mph gusts across a wide swathe of central England and Wales, GFS not far behind, Arpege the same and extremely severe for Southern Ireland with 110mph gusts. Icon develops the low extremely late and is very far south bringing 95-105mph, even inland to Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and other south coastal counties. 

Well, it depends on where you are….  From my perspective, the UKMO has downgraded overnight.  These two images both show maximum predicted gusts for 9:00am Friday, first one from last night, second one from this mornings run…..

99CBE3A2-1BFC-400B-8D63-BA07E3031755.thumb.png.d0dd087a8722b3269fb49ba6ab136478.png    4F2BA971-1FED-49F1-A56B-75CF725CD7D1.thumb.png.26ac34655a954982d07cebc1bfa20ab3.png
 

The second chart also shows a definite shift south, so both statements could be said to be true.

These predictions are bound to change several more times before Friday but I’m hoping for more ‘downgrades’ so I can keep my roof on…..    


 

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
  • Location: newquay, cornwall
On 15/02/2022 at 07:10, Mark Smithy said:

What might be helpful then is if people clarify what they mean. The storm has not downgraded at all. What it 'has' done is track a little further south in the model forecasts this morning and, hence, why where you live might not have such intense gusts whilst others further south will have more so i.e. upgrades.

There are so many variables in a storm that won't even form until Thursday, far out at sea. One thing to keep an eye on is the possibility that it will reach maximum intensity off the British coast.

Yes to say the storm has down graded overnight is misleading. It’s going to edge a bit north or south with every run . Just because one runs shows it’s not so bad in one persons location doesn’t mean it’s down graded. Gonna be lively few days here in Newquay I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
29 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Looks like GEM might need to calm down a bit as well - 100mph gusts inland? No thank you.
image.thumb.png.db962c467eaaeee8ff1cf681cccd4a7d.png

Always tend to overplay the wind speeds.

Will probably track further south, with 60 - 70mph gusts across Southern England..... stronger at the coast. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

The development needs to more or less be nowcasted. The later and slower it develops, the further south it will correct. The earlier and quicker it develops, then it will probably be more to the North.

As always, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

Winners and losers for this one. If it heads further south it could be really impactful for our friends and neighbours on the other side of the Channel. 

Totally agree with comments about the Met Office and the work they've done since 1987. They are my first port of call and I urge all of us to refer our social media friends towards more reliable sources and ignore what the newspapers are screaming at them. 

The trend that is emerging is that the South and West of the UK and Ireland are most likely to be affected, but London, the South East and the Midlands and exposed West Coastal areas also on high alert. North of France should also be on alert it would seem.  

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL
  • Location: Maidstone, 230ft ASL

I think todays 12z are important to see if the southerly trend continues, but as other posters have said it is going to be short term forecasting and gives the Met Office a bit of a headache, especially with this one hitting populated areas.  Go red too early and it is only really "Amber worthy" and doesn't develop as expected or the stronger winds are too far south then the standard tabloid reader/bloke down the pub will  be giving it the biggun "Useless/panicking over nothing as usual" etc.   Leave it too late and people will say they weren't warned.  Ultimately people in this country just don't listen to the detail, they don't listen to the experts and either way the experts are too often forced to water down information to suit the lowest common denominator.

Either way, it is a very interesting period of weather watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The development needs to more or less be nowcasted. The later and slower it develops, the further south it will correct. The earlier and quicker it develops, then it will probably be more to the North.

As always, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Interesting language there, something I have noticed when snow is forecast too.....a move to the north is a change, a move to the south is a correction, interesting. 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I think looking at the latest predictions there as been no downgrades or any change to yesterday's  model output, and it's a bit premature to be calling any detail as yet because the low pressure concerned as not even been born yet! I think personally from experience models deal with this kind of situation rather well, so I think the Predicted path will be (fairly) accurate.  So anywhere south of a line from North Wales across to the top end of East Anglia will be in the firing line. Looks like a turbulent spell of weather even into the weekend. ....we won't no the exact path of the Predicted storm, but this could well lead to some of the most fierce winds for many years....

ukgust-1.webp

h850t850eu-60.webp

ukgust-2.webp

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

My sense is, overall, a slight southward drift of the forecast, with southern areas a little more likely to join in with 70-85mph gusts. Small chance of it missing to the south altogether but this must be the outlier right now. Risks still exist for all of England and Wales.

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