Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th

[Summer Sun]

The Met office have just named Storm Dudley for Wednesday and Thursday with amber wind warnings issued

[Paul]

Dudley:

[jmp223420]

I reckon this will be the windiest storm of the season for my location (Glasgow).  It will probably undergo explosive cyclogenesis on Tuesday and I wouldnt put inland wind gusts of 70mph, 75mph at a stretch out of the equation.

Edited February 14, 2022 by jmp223420
Typo

[Fiona Robertson]

This is the one that last week the models were predicting gusts in excess of 200 kph (124 mph, go me! I can use an online converter ). Looks like they've dialed that back to 90 mph in exposed and coastal areas so that's good, in a relative sense. Anyone willing to cheer me up with a prediction that wind speeds will be further downgraded before it hits? Good job farrier is booked for tomorrow morning.

[Ross90]

It has upgraded slightly over the last couple of days with 3am on Thurs looking like the peak with around 70mph through the central belt but most places could see 12 hrs plus of 50mph. The beeb and met are still sticking with mid 50s as the highest gusts which would put it in line with the last couple of storms here.

[Mark Smithy]

4 hours ago, Ross90 said:

It has upgraded slightly over the last couple of days with 3am on Thurs looking like the peak with around 70mph through the central belt but most places could see 12 hrs plus of 50mph. The beeb and met are still sticking with mid 50s as the highest gusts which would put it in line with the last couple of storms here.

You sure about that?

[Zenarcher]

It will be the highest mean wind speed I've had since December 2011 if the current GFS wind forecast comes true on the day. At this point, there's still time for some changes, but Wednesday night and Thursday morning are forecast to be very stormy in some places.

[The PIT]

Slight upgrade from yesterdays model run and the same for Friday.

 

[Zenarcher]

I just looked at the ECM gusts for this storm, and it looks like it'll be about 70 to 80 mph around the South West coasts in Scotland. The ECM is predicting for 50 to 60 mph for inland areas, with some areas reaching 65 mph. The GFS is similar, but it predicts stronger inland gusts, with gusts exceeding 75 mph in some areas.

[RabbitEars]

Has anyone got wind speed charts for Dudley like those being shown on the thread for Eunice? I’m interested to see if my Isle of Man is going to get battered by Hugh wind speeds on both days? 

Edited February 15, 2022 by RabbitEars

[Ross90]

The met have downgraded it quite a bit through the central belt, not even reaching 50mph now. If that's accurate then the amber warning will likely shrink or be removed completely...

Edited February 15, 2022 by Ross90

[The PIT]

Downgrade overnight still windy but if it continues it will be the warmth the most notable feature.

[Mark Smithy]

46 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade overnight still windy but if it continues it will be the warmth the most notable feature.

I haven't been studying Dudley but you erroneously claimed a 'downgrade' on the Eunice thread and I suspect that for some reason known to you alone you seem intent on declaring downgrades. Maybe it would be more helpful to post charts and substantiated meteorology rather than winding people up.

There may be 'downgrades'. There may be all sorts of variables but let's have some backup and not merely seeking to be contentious?

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

It looks like Dudley has been downgraded in the Scottish central belt but it is looking like stronger winds further south so I assume it is taking a more southerly track.

Manchester seems to have stronger winds than my part of the world and even Hertfordshire has similar wind speeds. 

So it looks like the south of the country is going to get two storms with 24hrs between them followed by another low pressure system on Sunday with potentially gale force winds. At least it will stop the complaints of how dull their weather has been.

[RobR]

At least Storm Dudley will now hit Dudley

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, RobR said:

At least Storm Dudley will now hit Dudley

Yep - I have just had a 'gale' warning for my area over the phone from 21:00 tomorrow evening thru thursday midday.

MIA

[weirpig]

13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep - I have just had a 'gale' warning for my area over the phone from 21:00 tomorrow evening thru thursday midday.

MIA

Might clean up this  place a bit

[Zenarcher]

The GFS has reduced wind speeds overnight, falling in line with other models such as the ECM, Met Office, and ICON, although it still predicts inland gusts of 50 to 60 mph for Central Scotland and Northern England. Indeed, the GFS forecast has downgraded this morning, but it'll still be very windy on Wednesday, and the Met Office still has the amber warning in place.

[Bradowl]

2 minutes ago, Zenarcher said:

The GFS has reduced wind speeds overnight, falling in line with other models such as the ECM, Met Office, and ICON, although it still predicts inland gusts of 50 to 60 mph for Central Scotland and Northern England. Indeed, the GFS forecast has downgraded this morning, but it'll still be very windy on Wednesday, and the Met Office still has the amber warning in place.

That's good news, I hope it continues to downgrade, storm force winds is nothing to get excited about for me.

[Ross90]

Storm Dudley - 18 replies, storm Eunice - 202 replies... I wonder which one is affecting the south.

[Paul]

12z UKV keeps with the theme of some 80mph plus gusts in exposed parts of southern Scotland and perhaps also Northern England tomorrow evening. 

  

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

[Zenarcher]

The Met Office wind gusts tomorrow,

It shows mainly shows gusts of 50 to 60 mph, but 60 to 70 mph in parts of Southern Scotland and Northern England. The strongest gusts are expected in the south west of Scotland (Islay, Jura, Campbeltown, and Arran). It should also be highlighted that during rush hour on Wednesday morning over the Scottish central belt, gusts of 50 to 60 mph may be experienced in some places.

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

1 hour ago, Ross90 said:

Storm Dudley - 18 replies, storm Eunice - 202 replies... I wonder which one is affecting the south.

It looks like Dudley is going to affect the south to some degree at least but people haven't yet realised it. 

Watford was showing gusts around 50mph and Heathrow around 45mph and if you've ever travelled through Heathrow regularly you'll know that anything remotely windy causes delays and cancellations as the landing and take off slots get extended for safety reasons so expect some disruption there.

[Geordiesnow]

I think some are forgetting the 'lee' of high ground affect here, the angle of the low look favourable too me for potentially damaging gusts to the east of high ground.

I don't think we will see the 80-90mph gusts but 60 upto 70mph is possible for a short time. 

[A Face like Thunder]

20 hours ago, The PIT said:

Slight upgrade from yesterdays model run and the same for Friday.

 

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of the Sheffield gales where there were wind speeds of 97mph.